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One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
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20 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The 18Z HRRR from around 8pm to 3-4am is pretty insane for the Triangle to Hwy 17 cooridor.....heavy snow and winds gusting to the mid 30's well inland....please let it play out like it shows....

Are any of the sustained winds approaching 35 mph or is it just gusts? I'm asking because I just looked up blizzard warning criteria for the heck of it, and was surprised it's not accumulation dependent. It's near 35mph sustained w/ snow falling/blowing with less than 1/4 mile visibility.

Edit: forgot to mention for 3 straight hrs

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
315 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020
Changes: The later start to the snow across the north and northwest
and indications from high res guidance that the steadier
precipitation area has shifted southeast a bit, results in slightly
lower snow totals but still expect around an inch. Another change is
with a slight southward shift to the expected max snow accumulation
into the Coastal Plain. This still lines up well with WPC guidance
but is uncertain since much of this accumulating snow will occur
during a short window tonight when low level cold advection gets
going.

 

My reading of this is they lowered totals for N and NW Piedmont to 1'', while expecting more in the E part of their area towards the Coastal Plain. I don't think the Triangle was affected by that.

 

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I do not see a logical reason why they would lower the "high" totals of 1-3" at this point. It's all snow, we have hours of snow ahead of us, rates should stay good through 9-10, and sunset is approaching. If anything I'd say 2-3 in sounds more correct for the immediate Raleigh area. I type this as it is snowing at a good clip at my window before 4, when they had the changeover this AM's forecast. I think it had to mean the NW. That's it for my rant. Snowing good atm. Temp is an issue for accumulations but it is dropping like a rock.

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Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

I do not see a logical reason why they would lower the "high" totals of 1-3" at this point. It's all snow, we have hours of snow ahead of us, rates should stay good through 9-10, and sunset is approaching. If anything I'd say 2-3 in sounds more correct for the immediate Raleigh area. I type this as it is snowing at a good clip at my window before 4, when they had the changeover this AM's forecast. I think it had to mean the NW. That's it for my rant. Snowing good atm. Temp is an issue for accumulations but it is dropping like a rock.

It may snow 4-5 inches but I don't think we will see high accumulation.  Everything falling in my neck of the woods is immediately melting and its a solid moderate snow.

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1 minute ago, mwp1023 said:

It may snow 4-5 inches but I don't think we will see high accumulation.  Everything falling in my neck of the woods is immediately melting and its a solid moderate snow.

I'll be that guy: wait till it gets closer to sunset. It does matter. it's like forbidden to say that on here but I will. I think we'll get enough flakes for 4-6 in but I'd expect half that accumulates. Pretty right now though!

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