SnowDeac Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Do people just not realize there's an OBS thread? 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 20 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The 18Z HRRR from around 8pm to 3-4am is pretty insane for the Triangle to Hwy 17 cooridor.....heavy snow and winds gusting to the mid 30's well inland....please let it play out like it shows.... Are any of the sustained winds approaching 35 mph or is it just gusts? I'm asking because I just looked up blizzard warning criteria for the heck of it, and was surprised it's not accumulation dependent. It's near 35mph sustained w/ snow falling/blowing with less than 1/4 mile visibility. Edit: forgot to mention for 3 straight hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Its only gust sustained is in the teens...….so probably looking at heavy snow with 15-20mph winds gusting to 30-35 over the central coastal plains around 10pm-2am...certainly not blizzard conditions..assuming the models are right.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VARTV Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: Do people just not realize there's an OBS thread? I didn't, sorry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Hooooboy the HRRR is gonna be a masterpiece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCentralWakeCo Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, wake4est said: Hooooboy the HRRR is gonna be a masterpiece. It keeps getting better and better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, SouthCentralWakeCo said: It keeps getting better and better got a link to the HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, Amos83 said: got a link to the HRRR? https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2020022019&fh=10&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Its only gust sustained is in the teens...….so probably looking at heavy snow with 15-20mph winds gusting to 30-35 over the central coastal plains around 10pm-2am...certainly not blizzard conditions..assuming the models are right.... Gotcha. Still impressive nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Raleigh NWS lowering snowfall totals. They still expect about an inch. Who was it on here that said Raleigh would get 3-5" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, Snownado said: Raleigh NWS lowering snowfall totals. They still expect about an inch. Who was it on here that said Raleigh would get 3-5" ? where do you see that? if anything, its playing out as expected and its trending towards more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 HRRR and NAM 3k put down 4+ in Wake (kuchera) and ludicrous amounts at 10:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Nobody has changed projected totals attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Rah mentioned it in their 2:20pm discussion as a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Why are they lowering totals? It is snowing here in Garner already. What do they see? Ground temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 HRRR still pounds....these numbers are best case I think but still.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, downeastnc said: HRRR still pounds....these numbers are best case I think but still.... Is that all on the ground? Or is that with melting due to ground temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted February 20, 2020 Author Share Posted February 20, 2020 Been coming down awhile and none of the snow is sticking, I imagine that’s because it’s 36°? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 315 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 Changes: The later start to the snow across the north and northwest and indications from high res guidance that the steadier precipitation area has shifted southeast a bit, results in slightly lower snow totals but still expect around an inch. Another change is with a slight southward shift to the expected max snow accumulation into the Coastal Plain. This still lines up well with WPC guidance but is uncertain since much of this accumulating snow will occur during a short window tonight when low level cold advection gets going. My reading of this is they lowered totals for N and NW Piedmont to 1'', while expecting more in the E part of their area towards the Coastal Plain. I don't think the Triangle was affected by that. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, Tar Heel Snow said: Been coming down awhile and none of the snow is sticking, I imagine that’s because it’s 36°? It’s because the ground is warm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, Tar Heel Snow said: Been coming down awhile and none of the snow is sticking, I imagine that’s because it’s 36°? And ground temps. Not sure what the heck the NWS is talking about in Snownado's post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 SREF plumes at RDU have a mean of 6”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Meh. On 2nd reading, maybe they did mean overall, and that bulk of moisture shifted S and E of RAH's area. But I dunno. My point and click still says 1-2 inches though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted February 20, 2020 Author Share Posted February 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, wake4est said: It’s because the ground is warm. That too yeah, shame, wasting some great snow rn! Pretty to look at though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 I do not see a logical reason why they would lower the "high" totals of 1-3" at this point. It's all snow, we have hours of snow ahead of us, rates should stay good through 9-10, and sunset is approaching. If anything I'd say 2-3 in sounds more correct for the immediate Raleigh area. I type this as it is snowing at a good clip at my window before 4, when they had the changeover this AM's forecast. I think it had to mean the NW. That's it for my rant. Snowing good atm. Temp is an issue for accumulations but it is dropping like a rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwp1023 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: I do not see a logical reason why they would lower the "high" totals of 1-3" at this point. It's all snow, we have hours of snow ahead of us, rates should stay good through 9-10, and sunset is approaching. If anything I'd say 2-3 in sounds more correct for the immediate Raleigh area. I type this as it is snowing at a good clip at my window before 4, when they had the changeover this AM's forecast. I think it had to mean the NW. That's it for my rant. Snowing good atm. Temp is an issue for accumulations but it is dropping like a rock. It may snow 4-5 inches but I don't think we will see high accumulation. Everything falling in my neck of the woods is immediately melting and its a solid moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, mwp1023 said: It may snow 4-5 inches but I don't think we will see high accumulation. Everything falling in my neck of the woods is immediately melting and its a solid moderate snow. I'll be that guy: wait till it gets closer to sunset. It does matter. it's like forbidden to say that on here but I will. I think we'll get enough flakes for 4-6 in but I'd expect half that accumulates. Pretty right now though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 RAH reissued WWA just now. says 1-2 w/ isolated 3 in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, YetAnotherRDUGuy said: RAH reissued WWA just now. says 1-2 w/ isolated 3 in spots. I'm pretty sure that's the same as it was. I can't wait for stuff to start whitening up. It's coming down atm. Only issue we have now are BL temps and, dare I say it, ground temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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