downeastnc Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 IP/RN mix here probably 50-75% IP at times..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Robert just posted on FB what I already suspected. Downslope screw zone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, CentralNC said: Robert just posted on FB what I already suspected. Downslope screw zone here. Can you link the post? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, CentralNC said: Robert just posted on FB what I already suspected. Downslope screw zone here. Says NW SC is toast too, no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 https://www.facebook.com/pg/WxSouth/posts/?ref=page_internal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 The HRRR is making a case for more snow around Fayetteville. On the current analysis you can see the rain has really help to cool the column a lot faster in Central/SE NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 The 12z RGEM just upped totals big time. 1" QPF into RDU, 0.5" back to GSO. A true weenie run!!! 6 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 58 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Here’s why I and other mets aren’t trusting the HRRR; this is a pretty unrealistic profile for an overcast day; with a super adiabatic lapse rate at the surface this is a sounding you’d usually get if it were sunny! Sometimes even short term models struggle with the boundary layer and potential solar radiation. hrrr is busting temp wise here...as expected. 37 degree temps extend back to atlanta where all night the hrrr had temps of 42 to 44 degrees right now. Using hrrr where precip is falling...especially with any respectable dewpoint depressions...is a waste of time. As for the rdu area, i wouldn't worry too much about those 40s. There is more than enough cold/dry air just off the surface to allow a fast temp drop once the steady precip arrives. wetbulb zero heights as low as 985mb on the 12z nam is easily low enough to produce a rapid temp drop. 7 minutes ago, CentralNC said: Robert just posted on FB what I already suspected. Downslope screw zone here. Yep...The biggest concern i have for the upstate/western nc is just overall lack of precip...especially into nc. Virtually every model is showing a decrease in the amounts there..generally less than a half inch...even for the upstate and obviously some of that is going to be needed to cool the surface. One thing i'm going to be watching out for though is the southern upstate later this afternoon/evening. wrf suite and nam/3km are all paining a swath of snow from greenwood northeast..as an area of precip lingers behind long enough to catch up to the caa aloft. Would be ironic to say the least if they somehow manage to do better than the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 The wetter HRRR and RGEM have solid precip in the Triad by 12, while the NAM holds back for a few more hours. We shall see which is right, although nothing building on radar just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Winter storm warnings up for us. Our 1st in 2 years. 2-4" expected but we will see. Temp and dew points have been dropping steady the last 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerchick224 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Robert just posted on FB what I already suspected. Downslope screw zone here.The thing is, I feel like his post relies heavily on the precip type falling right now and he assumes it is rain. It has been sleet from the start here in the northern Upstate.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 of course I'm on vacation in Cancun and I'm following the weather anyway. Crazy I know. I live in Ramseur and still wanting snow when I'm not even there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 15 minutes ago, CentralNC said: Robert just posted on FB what I already suspected. Downslope screw zone here. It's interesting to see the models hold back on totals, yet show an intense band of snow for the afternoon hours in the Lee of the Apps. Something doesn't add up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, Tigerchick224 said: The thing is, I feel like his post relies heavily on the precip type falling right now and he assumes it is rain. It has been sleet from the start here in the northern Upstate. . Where in upstate? All rain here despite cold 850s and 925s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, tazaroo said: of course I'm on vacation in Cancun and I'm following the weather anyway. Crazy I know. I live in Ramseur and still wanting snow when I'm not even there. Go get a tan and fruity drink. This will all be a memory by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Where in upstate? All rain here despite cold 850s and 925s. Hard to snow at 45 degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Hard to snow at 45 degrees February 16, 2013 says hello 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerchick224 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Where in upstate? All rain here despite cold 850s and 925s.Blue Ridge/TR. Not quite north enough to be the mountains, but not Greenville either. I hope you guys will get something soon! It’s crazy how the 850s haven’t present as much of a problem and now it’s a precipitation amount thing. Ahhhh to live east of the mountains.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 15z HRRR has it snowing in Hampton Roads by 20-21z. That'd be a good development. It does bring a nice area of moderate rain through before that so that's probably what it's going to take to start wet-bulbing. We'll see if that holds through the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 44/28 at home. DP's come down from 36 this morning. Hoping DP's keep falling before the precip moves in. Need all the wetbulbing we can muster. NE wind has gotten gusty. Smells like snow even if it doesn't feel like it yet haha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 I think the one thing that is interesting to note is the HP being configured over the plains generally favors the eastern portion of the state from a CAD perspective. It doesn't funnel the dry air as close to the Apps as well as a banana HP parked over PA. That may be part of the issue for foothills and NW Piedmont from a snow total perspective. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 WInd's pick up as the coastal gets cranking and there should still be some good rates going on... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 I know it's not much, but for those in the Piedmont of NC a few of the models (GFS, Canadian, UKMET) have been showing a narrow band of light snow moving through from north to south between 1am and 6am Friday morning. This has been showing up for the past few runs and depending on the model looks like it might have the potential to bring an additional 1/2 to 1 inch of snow for those lucky enough to find themselves under it if it were to actually develop. It shows up nicely on the latest run of the RGEM 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Is it just a coincidence that current SE regional radar mosaic mirrors the modeling - showing the lee side precip shadowing in NW piedmont? I mean it looks just like the total QPF maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Cold chasing precip -- a recipe for disappointment. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, Tullioz said: I know it's not much, but for those in the Piedmont of NC the a few of the models (GFS, Canadian, UKMET) have been showing a narrow band of light snow moving through from north to south between 1am and 6am Friday morning. This has been showing up for the past few runs and depending on the model looks like it might have the potential to bring an additional 1/2 to 1 inch of snow for those lucky enough to find themselves under it if it were to actually develop. It shows up nicely on the latest run of the RGEM I have seen that as well. It's a long shot, but If it does happen the ratios would be much higher then as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billypg70 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, Tigerchick224 said: Blue Ridge/TR. Not quite north enough to be the mountains, but not Greenville either. I hope you guys will get something soon! It’s crazy how the 850s haven’t present as much of a problem and now it’s a precipitation amount thing. Ahhhh to live east of the mountains. . Just went to put something in my car and i seen sleet pellets mixed in on top of my car with rain. I'm in Taylos about 2 miles SE of paris mtn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, downeastnc said: WInd's pick up as the coastal gets cranking and there should still be some good rates going on... Yep, I've thought it'll look impressive for y'all for a while tonight. I think you are set for this storm! Makes me miss my time living in Winterville. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, beanskip said: Cold chasing precip -- a recipe for disappointment. Once the radar filled in here is was all snow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 The GSO 12z sounding has a nice dry layer at from 700mb down to 950mb. THis will likely result in some quick cooling aloft. I think a transition from rain to sleet/snow won't take long once the higher ratest begin this afternoon. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/20022012_OBS/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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