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One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
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58 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Here’s why I and other mets aren’t trusting the HRRR;4f833c465a54b395a8f823b04d8729ab.jpg this is a pretty unrealistic profile for an overcast day; with a super adiabatic lapse rate at the surface this is a sounding you’d usually get if it were sunny! Sometimes even short term models struggle with the boundary layer and potential solar radiation.

hrrr is busting temp wise here...as expected. 37 degree temps extend back to atlanta where all night the hrrr had temps of 42 to 44 degrees right now. Using hrrr where precip is falling...especially with any respectable dewpoint depressions...is a waste of time. 

As for the rdu area, i wouldn't worry too much about those 40s. There is more than enough cold/dry air just off the surface to allow a fast temp drop once the steady precip arrives. wetbulb zero heights as low as 985mb on the 12z nam is easily low enough to produce a rapid temp drop. 

7 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Robert just posted on FB what I already suspected.  Downslope screw zone here.

Yep...The biggest concern i have for the upstate/western nc is just overall lack of precip...especially into nc.  Virtually every model is showing a decrease in the amounts there..generally less than a half inch...even for the upstate and obviously some of that is going to be needed to cool the surface. 

One thing i'm going to be watching out for though is the southern upstate later this afternoon/evening. wrf suite and nam/3km are all paining a swath of snow from greenwood northeast..as an area of precip lingers behind long enough to catch up to the caa aloft.  Would be ironic to say the least if they somehow manage to do better than the upstate. 

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Where in upstate?  All rain here despite cold 850s and 925s.


Blue Ridge/TR. Not quite north enough to be the mountains, but not Greenville either. I hope you guys will get something soon! It’s crazy how the 850s haven’t present as much of a problem and now it’s a precipitation amount thing. Ahhhh to live east of the mountains.


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I think the one thing that is interesting to note is the HP being configured over the plains generally favors the eastern portion of the state from a CAD perspective. It doesn't funnel the dry air as close to the Apps as well as a banana HP parked over PA. That may be part of the issue for foothills and NW Piedmont from a snow total perspective. 

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I know it's not much, but for those in the Piedmont of NC a few of the models (GFS, Canadian, UKMET) have been showing a narrow band of light snow moving through from north to south between 1am and 6am Friday morning. This has been showing up for the past few runs and depending on the model looks like it might have the potential to bring an additional 1/2 to 1 inch of snow for those lucky enough to find themselves under it if it were to actually develop. 

It shows up nicely on the latest run of the RGEM

1991095364_rgemgig.thumb.gif.89430905a1993eafbe9c1e5cd1d52d68.gif

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Just now, Tullioz said:

I know it's not much, but for those in the Piedmont of NC the a few of the models (GFS, Canadian, UKMET) have been showing a narrow band of light snow moving through from north to south between 1am and 6am Friday morning. This has been showing up for the past few runs and depending on the model looks like it might have the potential to bring an additional 1/2 to 1 inch of snow for those lucky enough to find themselves under it if it were to actually develop. 

It shows up nicely on the latest run of the RGEM

1991095364_rgemgig.thumb.gif.89430905a1993eafbe9c1e5cd1d52d68.gif

I have seen that as well.  It's a long shot, but If it does happen the ratios would be much higher then as well. 

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9 minutes ago, Tigerchick224 said:

 


Blue Ridge/TR. Not quite north enough to be the mountains, but not Greenville either. I hope you guys will get something soon! It’s crazy how the 850s haven’t present as much of a problem and now it’s a precipitation amount thing. emoji849.pngAhhhh to live east of the mountains.


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Just went to put something in my car and i seen sleet pellets mixed in on top of my car with rain.

I'm in Taylos about 2 miles SE of paris mtn

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