strongwxnc Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 58 minutes ago, burrel2 said: HRRR crushes i-85 and north in the upstate with over one half inch of liquid after the column reaches isothermal at 1pm. According to this model, we only waste about .05 inches of liquid before the change over. Here's the radar valid at 3pm today. You can see the R/S line Latest HRRR paints around.70- .50 from the upstate into the southern foothills hwy 74 towards CTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Latest HRRR paints around.70- .50 from the upstate into the southern foothills hwy 74 towards CTL. Im literally just above that yellow line in the greenish color. Should be interesting and probably rainy as usual 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Morning thoughts... At 6:10 am, rain was pushing from west to east into Georgia and eastern Tennessee. Atlanta, which has received more than 200% of its normal precipitation through yesterday was reporting light rain. Heavier rain was located over parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. That precipitation will continue to advance eastward. The storm responsible for that precipitation will affect the Carolinas and southern Virginia later today into tomorrow morning. Snow and rain changing to accumulating snow will fall over parts of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. The heaviest snows will likely be focused on eastern North Carolina into extreme southeastern Virginia where 3"-6" with locally higher amounts are likely. The latest HREF guidance suggests some amounts in the 6"-8" range are possible in this area. My final estimates are: Elizabeth City: 3"-6" Greenville, NC: 3"-6" Norfolk: 2"-5" Raleigh: 2"-4" Wilmington: 1" or less 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 https://climate.ncsu.edu/map/ Ground truth temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 So we get two SE snowstorms this year and the Mid Atlantic is currently at zero correct? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 mesowest Obs. There’s a drop down option to see aprs/cwop PWS Stations. https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=NC&rawsflag=3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: So we get two SE snowstorms this year and the Mid Atlantic is currently at zero correct? Congrats My biggest storm produced 1.3 inches of snow. 3.3 on the season up here in Brooklyn, NY We are all struggling here. Philly and DC are under an inch and Boston is under 20 inches. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Congrats My biggest storm produced 1.3 inches of snow. 3.3 on the season up here in NYC We are all struggling here. Philly and DC are under an inch and Boston is under 20 inches. Wow, that’s crazy. When was the last time those cities had such low totals through mid-February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 I'm rooting for all of you Please post snow pics so I can see what snow looks like. Thanks 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, lilj4425 said: Wow, that’s crazy. When was the last time those cities had such low totals? The last time I finished below 5 inches was in 2001-2002. I finished around 3.5 inches. I'm not sure about the other cities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Down to 37 already here in Concord. WSOC is STILL barely on board with this storm. smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 20 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: So we get two SE snowstorms this year and the Mid Atlantic is currently at zero correct? No, I think the Mid Atlantic did have one in January IIRC. I’m not going to call this a snowstorm quite yet. There needs to be some measureable snow on the ground first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Forecast update. Good luck to all! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 The 3K NAM holds on to precipitation later into Friday morning (3-4AM) while the HRRR tends to cut it off around midnight. This will play a big role in road conditions Friday morning. A stiff wind and dropping temps will dry a lot of the roads before they can freeze, but all this hinges on the duration of the lingering precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrown85 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, strongwxnc said: Latest HRRR paints around.70- .50 from the upstate into the southern foothills hwy 74 towards CTL. How accurate is this model with thermals? Looks like temp will be our biggest issue in the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 N Greenville and Spartanburg counties under WWA now! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 How’s the 0 degree 850 line now vs modeling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 All 100 North Carolina counties are under either a Winter Storm Warning or a Winter Weather Advisory. Murphy to Manteo. And the 06z NAM is mouth watering. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, pbrown85 said: How accurate is this model with thermals? Looks like temp will be our biggest issue in the upstate. The HRRR is typically way too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 This is the pre-event panic phase for most. Time to just wait and see. 5 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, eyewall said: This is the pre-event panic phase for most. Time to just wait and see. Yuppp, Radar and upstream temps are where you need to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: This is the pre-event panic phase for most. Time to just wait and see. It would be nice if 2m temps started dropping, but I guess this was expected. I remember a lot of folks in E NC freaking out when they warmed into the mid 40s on Christmas Day 2010 while the initial overrunning was snowing in the foothills and western Piedmont, then they promptly got crushed a few hours later. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 43 degrees this AM in Charlotte.. radars definitely not looking to be an issue, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: All 100 North Carolina counties are under either a Winter Storm Warning or a Winter Weather Advisory. Murphy to Manteo. And the 06z NAM is mouth watering. Thanks! Any chance you could post an image of 6z NAM snowfall? 3k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Radar looks juicier than the models show... especially in the foothills... this is definitely going to be a nowcast situation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 6z 3km NAM (10:1). Kuchera is slightly higher but not by much. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, eyewall said: 6z 3km NAM (10:1). Kuchera is slightly higher but not by much. Looks probable to me. Battle lines in the usual spots of course. I'll bet somewhere along 74 overperforms on this. In about an hour they line up to cliffs as soon as the temp doesn't drop as fast they expect due to evap-cooling . 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, burgertime said: Looks probable to me. Battle lines in the usual spots of course. I'll bet somewhere along 74 overperforms on this. In about an hour they line up to cliffs as soon as the temp doesn't drop as fast they expect due to evap-cooling . a little bizarre for me to see that 6.0 finger into Chatham county and 3.0 by Va. line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Wow radar looks impressive. Good luck guys and gals. Considering how crappy this winter has been. Rooting for a over preformer. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, frazdaddy said: a little bizarre for me to see that 6.0 finger into Chatham county and 3.0 by Roxboro It's just crazy that ENC could jackpot near the end of Feb. It'll be super interesting to see the final accumulations out there. Gonna probably be a fun one where if you're just 10 miles away you get totally screwed while they get 2+. Looks good for you though. Gonna be a beaut on the farm! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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