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One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
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58 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

HRRR crushes i-85 and north in the upstate with over one half inch of liquid after the column reaches isothermal at 1pm. According to this model, we only waste about .05 inches of liquid before the change over. Here's the radar valid at 3pm today. You can see the R/S line

Screen Shot 2020-02-20 at 4.48.36 AM.png

Latest HRRR paints around.70- .50 from the upstate into the southern foothills hwy 74 towards CTL. 

 

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Morning thoughts...

At 6:10 am, rain was pushing from west to east into Georgia and eastern Tennessee. Atlanta, which has received more than 200% of its normal precipitation through yesterday was reporting light rain. Heavier rain was located over parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. That precipitation will continue to advance eastward.

The storm responsible for that precipitation will affect the Carolinas and southern Virginia later today into tomorrow morning. Snow and rain changing to accumulating snow will fall over parts of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. The heaviest snows will likely be focused on eastern North Carolina into extreme southeastern Virginia where 3"-6" with locally higher amounts are likely.  The latest HREF guidance suggests some amounts in the 6"-8" range are possible in this area.

My final estimates are:

Elizabeth City: 3"-6"
Greenville, NC: 3"-6"
Norfolk: 2"-5"
Raleigh: 2"-4"
Wilmington: 1" or less

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9 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

So we get two SE snowstorms this year and the Mid Atlantic is currently at zero correct?

Congrats 

My biggest storm produced 1.3 inches of snow.

 

3.3 on the season up here in Brooklyn, NY

We are all struggling here. Philly and DC are under an inch and Boston is under 20 inches.

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Congrats 

My biggest storm produced 1.3 inches of snow.

 

3.3 on the season up here in NYC

We are all struggling here. Philly and DC are under an inch and Boston is under 20 inches.

Wow, that’s crazy. When was the last time those cities had such low totals through mid-February? 

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20 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

So we get two SE snowstorms this year and the Mid Atlantic is currently at zero correct?

No, I think the Mid Atlantic did have one in January IIRC.  I’m not going to call this a snowstorm quite yet.  There needs to be some measureable snow on the ground first.

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The 3K NAM holds on to precipitation later into Friday morning (3-4AM) while the HRRR tends to cut it off around midnight.  This will play a big role in road conditions Friday morning.  A stiff wind and dropping temps will dry a lot of the roads before they can freeze, but all this hinges on the duration of the lingering precip.

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2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

This is the pre-event panic phase for most. Time to just wait and see.

It would be nice if 2m temps started dropping, but I guess this was expected.  I remember a lot of folks in E NC freaking out when they warmed into the mid 40s on Christmas Day 2010 while the initial overrunning was snowing in the foothills and western Piedmont, then they promptly got crushed a few hours later.

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Just now, eyewall said:

6z 3km NAM (10:1). Kuchera is slightly higher but not by much.

 

 

Looks probable to me. Battle lines in the usual spots of course. I'll bet somewhere along 74 overperforms on this. In about an hour they line up to cliffs as soon as the temp doesn't drop as fast they expect due to evap-cooling :arrowhead:

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7 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Looks probable to me. Battle lines in the usual spots of course. I'll bet somewhere along 74 overperforms on this. In about an hour they line up to cliffs as soon as the temp doesn't drop as fast they expect due to evap-cooling :arrowhead:

a little bizarre for me to see that 6.0 finger into Chatham county and 3.0 by Va. line

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Just now, frazdaddy said:

a little bizarre for me to see that 6.0 finger into Chatham county and 3.0 by Roxboro

It's just crazy that ENC could jackpot near the end of Feb. It'll be super interesting to see the final accumulations out there. Gonna probably be a fun one where if you're just 10 miles away you get totally screwed while they get 2+. Looks good for you though. Gonna be a beaut on the farm! 

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