magpiemaniac Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, CntrTim85 said: What do you consider inland? Chesapeake? Norfolk? Suffolk? Suffolk will probably probably take the gold for that area, but almost everyone around there should cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Heard y’all like snow maps here’s what I made for my friends on Facebook I like your optimism and hope that map verifies, but I’ll be shocked if everyone receives half of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 RGEM snow map... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Nice Sharpie Ross 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Local station here in Hampton Roads---guy showed 3 models, with NAM around 3" and the other 2 showing like 1". Then showed their in-house model which literally had 0 for Chesapeake/Va Beach. He then says he anticipates a "significant snow event"? Huh? Seemed more like covering his bases than actually giving out info. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 I like your optimism and hope that map verifies, but I’ll be shocked if everyone receives half of that.Here’s my super heavy disclaimer; it was a casual map I made for most of my friends primarily in the eastern part of the state, so for the mountains and west this doesn’t exactly exude granular detail. That being said I think 2-5 across the northern half of the state is decently attainable; also feeling pretty good about the northern eastern corner seeing some pretty good totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: RGEM snow map... Carbon copy of the 18z run, basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 GFS is also very similar to its 18Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 A beaut 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 IDK fellas, the current radar looks like it has plenty of moisture and moving ENE. If that is any indication there should be plenty of moisture for most to see at least a nice thump. Cold is usually the issue and I still think it will be with this one as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 GFS cut snow totals even further. Hmmm. It did extend it some for those in N GA and NW SC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, CntrTim85 said: No it didn't. Yes, it did. Compare 18z to 0z. Snow totals were cut some. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateFlurry Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 The story of the system will be some in Eastern NC will be disappointed while some in NW SC will be surprised . Good luck to everyone. Good night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 GFS has been identifying a maximum down between Kinston and New Bern for two runs now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, UpstateFlurry said: The story of the system will be some in Eastern NC will be disappoint while some in NW SC will be suspended. Good luck to everyone. Good night. I live in NW SC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: IDK fellas, the current radar looks like it has plenty of moisture and moving ENE. If that is any indication there should be plenty of moisture for most to see at least a nice thump. Cold is usually the issue and I still think it will be with this one as well. I've been posting today from TX that this system is overperforming bigtime. Still raining here and has been raining for over 24 hours now. QPF will not be the issue tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, CntrTim85 said: Went up in some spots! Overall, less snow than 18z. It doesn't mean it didn't increase in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Not really sure I buy the jackpots being so far east given the SLP location. It's not "that" far offshore, given the recent trends. IMO the area from Raleigh to Roanoke Rapids to Eliz' City looks pretty golden in this particular setup. Also over-running tends to sneak up fast and sometimes has a tendency to overperform. So don't be surprised if we see some quick totals add up over the southwest mountains/NE GA tomorrow. I tend to look at the 500mb pattern more so than most, as that's what i've always used for comparison/climo purposes. This one has the look of a classic i40 3 to 6 inch type event to me. Of course lolipops are always possible of 8 to 10. But the overwhelming majority will probably favor lesser totals. Initial sfc temps issues/light rain will likely be overcome by heavy precip relatively quickly north of i40. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Latest HREF Snow Totals 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Latest HREF Snow Totals Hate to say it but.. It also went down for most western areas from last run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 10 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: I've been posting today from TX that this system is overperforming bigtime. Still raining here and has been raining for over 24 hours now. QPF will not be the issue tomorrow. The problem for some is not just the quantity of QPF, but the cutoff. It could be pretty sharp for places that otherwise wouldn’t have temp issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Hate to say it but.. It also went down for most western areas from last run Don't really buy the precip gap over western NC. THe majority of this system will be isentropic lift generated (aka GOM moisture overrunning cold air). The southwest mountains/foothills and NE Georgia generally do well in these setups. There will likely be some back end enhancement over the costal plain w/ some incoming PJ energy Thursday night, but that will be a small enhanced band most likely confined over NE NC. The majority of this will be a front end thump. Radar looks good as well. We are in a weak El-Nino and most systems lately have overperformed QPF wise. Good to keep ground moisture/recent trends in mind. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: Don't really buy the precip gap over western NC. THe majority of this system will be isentropic lift generated (aka GOM moisture overrunning cold air). The southwest mountains/foothills and NE Georgia generally do well in these setups. There will likely be some back end enhancement over the costal plain w/ some incoming PJ energy Thursday night, but that will be a small enhanced band most likely confined over NE NC. The majority of this will be a front end thump. Radar looks good as well. We are in a weak El-Nino and most systems lately have overperformed QPF wise. Good to keep ground moisture/recent trends in mind. Hope you're right but modeling has been insistent on some type of downsloping element for McDowell northwest to Wilkes County. With the flow and orientation of the moisture its unusual to have a precip minimum here. If it was more west to east then yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Really you guys? Come on. Stay on topic before time outs are issued 3 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Really you guys? Come on. Stay on topic before time outs are issued Apologies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Hope you're right but modeling has been insistent on some type of downsloping element for McDowell northwest to Wilkes County. With the flow and orientation of the moisture its unusual to have a precip minimum here. If it was more west to east then yes Anything's possible. The situation is definitely not ideal for the mountains from a jackpot scenario. That said, given it's mostly overrunning and we're in an el-nino pattern, the models will likely be underdone there. The flow is WSW to ENE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 The HRRR is increasing moisture each run it seems as we get closer to go time so its starting to align more with the Nam and other short range models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Not that it matters too much at this point, but the 00z GGEM came a little NW compared to 12z with higher totals inland. A bit more juiced, which helps places like GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Does HRRR and the RAP usually have a very warm bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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