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One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
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2 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

NAM is warmer it appears so far through 18 and also less QPF. This could be a precursor to a big bust for most of NC. Ouch. Someone will get some snow though. 

Funny, all of the analysis I have seen so far say it is colder

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1 minute ago, ragtop50 said:

Funny, all of the analysis I have seen so far say it is colder

It is warmer at the start but stays about the same overall, which is impressive. The QPF is going down down baby, yo street.........nvm.

 

Likely will full go to the global models with snow totals, which is about where most METs have it. Shocker that the experts might have gotten this one right (sarcasm).

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5 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

Yea, looks like amounts are settling down to more realistic levels compared to what we saw from the NAM earlier.

I see timestamp is  2020-02-21 03z which is about 10 pm tomorrow night.  Is the precip over then or is it still ongoing?

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NAM is cutting totals, but props to it for possibly having the right solution over several top models. I will no longer question the validity of it going forward. It is a model that cannot simply be tossed to the side. It seems to finally be coming into line with the QPF of the other models, but it was right about snow chances it appears.

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Just now, Dunkman said:

If anything there was more snow on the 3k NAM at 00z than at 18z. That's reassuring for me and makes me think it's just the 12k coming back to earth rather than the start of some dramatic warming or drying up in the models.

Maybe for your area but for northern and western sections there was much less moisture 

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