wncsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 SREF went down a lot for HKY and AVL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: NAM is warmer it appears so far through 18 and also less QPF. This could be a precursor to a big bust for most of NC. Ouch. Someone will get some snow though. Funny, all of the analysis I have seen so far say it is colder 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: SREF went down a lot for HKY and AVL How much did it go down for both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 NAM is about .25 or so drier for most areas in western NC therefore less snow.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, ragtop50 said: Funny, all of the analysis I have seen so far say it is colder It is warmer at the start but stays about the same overall, which is impressive. The QPF is going down down baby, yo street.........nvm. Likely will full go to the global models with snow totals, which is about where most METs have it. Shocker that the experts might have gotten this one right (sarcasm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Low looks further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 3km NAM still has the warm nose for my backyard. Also has .25 qpf falling in my backyard by 10am, RAP and HRR is bone dry until noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherzim Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Low looks further southThat's good right for temps but not for moisture?!Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Snow map reflects the changes. I knew when the sref was drier the Nam wouldn't be as good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 12k and 32k NAM still look to be hammering NC! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 The NAM is fine. If anything, it is more in line with the realistic expectations of the other models and forecasts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Snow map reflects the changes. I knew when the sref was drier the Nam wouldn't be as good. Yea, looks like amounts are settling down to more realistic levels compared to what we saw from the NAM earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Was hoping to not see the 0z Models take a step back , have the same idea but the precip just wasn't as much this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 HI Res Nam even drier for western sections. Leeside shadow showing up again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: HI Res Nam even drier for western sections. Leeside shadow showing up again My total is going up on all hi Rez models! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Hug the HRW-ARW model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: HI Res Nam even drier for western sections. Leeside shadow showing up again Is it still snowing in eNC/swVA after this? those totals look pretty low over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said: Yea, looks like amounts are settling down to more realistic levels compared to what we saw from the NAM earlier. I see timestamp is 2020-02-21 03z which is about 10 pm tomorrow night. Is the precip over then or is it still ongoing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 The 3k NAM is actually drier west of Raleigh but wetter in Wake and to the E and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, Dunkman said: The 3k NAM is actually drier west of Raleigh but wetter in Wake and to the E and NE. Nearly 6” in wake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said: Is it still snowing in eNC/swVA after this? those totals look pretty low over there. Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 NAM is cutting totals, but props to it for possibly having the right solution over several top models. I will no longer question the validity of it going forward. It is a model that cannot simply be tossed to the side. It seems to finally be coming into line with the QPF of the other models, but it was right about snow chances it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, wncsnow said: Yes Thank you! That's a great look for RDU and all points NE from there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 SREF snow mean was 3.6 in Hickory now its 2.2 In Asheville it was 4.2 now less than 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: SREF snow mean was 3.6 in Hickory now its 2.2 In Asheville it was 4.2 now less than 3 That's a punch in the gut... definitely not the way we wanted to trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 If anything there was more snow on the 3k NAM at 00z than at 18z. That's reassuring for me and makes me think it's just the 12k coming back to earth rather than the start of some dramatic warming or drying up in the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 RDU sref went from 5.5 to 3.88 mean. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, Dunkman said: If anything there was more snow on the 3k NAM at 00z than at 18z. That's reassuring for me and makes me think it's just the 12k coming back to earth rather than the start of some dramatic warming or drying up in the models. Maybe for your area but for northern and western sections there was much less moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 time to throw away the models! let's nowcast this thing. 7 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted February 20, 2020 Author Share Posted February 20, 2020 At least 5 inches from Chatham and Alamance county east, hard to complain about that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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