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One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
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1 minute ago, ATLMet84 said:

So, I assume that is why us in N GA aren't expecting much of anything. Horrible boundary layer without CAD, just relying on cold from the NW.

Well there's several things working against N GA. 

For one, the 800mb temperature gradient is laid out East to West, which cuts off Georgia's chances at snow before lunch other than the top row of counties.

Also the precip moves through Georgia earlier... before the 800mb temperature gradient begins to sag south much.

Secondly, the CAD didn't have time to drive much cold/dry air at the 900-950mb level in to Georgia before the storm hits. These layers improve as you go east in to SC/NC,(and later arrival of precip helps).

 

This isn't to say that Northeastern Georgia is out of the running for accumulations, Especially if you have some elevation in the NE Ga mountains. They are actually in a pretty good spot, imo.

 

 

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1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

Well there's several things working against N GA. 

For one, the 800mb temperature gradient is laid out East to West, which cuts off Georgia's chances at snow before lunch other than the top row of counties.

Also the precip moves through Georgia earlier... before the 800mb temperature gradient begins to sag south much.

Secondly, the CAD didn't have time to drive much cold/dry air at the 900-950mb level in to Georgia before the storm hits. These layers improve as you go east in to SC/NC,(and later arrival of precip helps).

 

This isn't to say that Northeastern Georgia is out of the running for accumulations, Especially if you have some elevation in the NE Ga mountains. They are actually in a pretty good spot, imo.

 

 

Well, I know that SnowDawg in Rabun County at 2400' stands the best chance of anyone from GA on these boards. Maybe he will get another covering of snow.

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12 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

The 21z RAP was not kind to the NC foothills. This is through 7am Friday. 

Screen Shot 2020-02-19 at 5.24.24 PM.png

Lived in the foothills my entire life and I’ve never seen an overrunning setup skimp on the foothills - but I’ve seen plenty of models say it would. Not discounting the guidance, but there hasn’t been a single simulated radar that doesn’t show heavy banding impacting at least half of the foothill counties. 

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2 minutes ago, ATLMet84 said:

Well, I know that SnowDawg in Rabun County at 2400' stands the best chance of anyone from GA on these boards. Maybe he will get another covering of snow.

That's the hope. Mid level warm noses scare me though because they are rarely modeled very well. I've had plenty a disappointing heavy sleet storms before. HRRR and WRF giving me hope though pushing that rain snow line south pretty fast tomorrow morning. 

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3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

That's the hope. Mid level warm noses scare me though because they are rarely modeled very well. I've had plenty a disappointing heavy sleet storms before. HRRR and WRF giving me hope though pushing that rain snow line south pretty fast tomorrow morning. 

I'll take your sleet and leave you with the snow lol. Just give me something besides rain lol. Even if it doesn't accumulate, I'd rather see sleet bouncing everywhere and melting than just stupid rain.

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ABC11 (WTVD) says the southern part of central NC is the wildcard depending on how fast it changes over from rain/mix to snow.  The comment was that it could be a bit more accumulation than shown because the timing in that area is hard to nail down and will have plenty of moisture on hand.

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

A bump northwest with the precip on the 18z GFS....this is what models typically do close to go time with Miller A's - increase the precip on the NW side

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That's much better.  Snow map was anemic, but it should look pretty coming down.  The HrrrrRrRrr isn't quite as good, I don't think.

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Before we get into too much now casting and we get into the observation part of this storm, I want to thank everyone for making this a truly fun and educational track. 

After a really tough winter, this storm and its thread have reminded me why I came into this community in the first place. It’s always great to go through the ups and downs with you all, even more so after starting my first thread!

To the mets and experts, thank you for being clear, patient, and generous with your knowledge. It’s intentional, thoughtful, and informative.

To the mods, thanks for keeping this board a positive place for all to enjoy and learn.

To the Macks of the world (you all know who you are), thanks for keeping things light and fun!

And to everyone, may your snow totals resemble clown maps and may the warm noses stay to your south.

As always, there will be lessons to learn when it’s all over, but wishing everyone the best! You all make this community special, and I’m grateful for it.

(Mods, I apologize, I know this should be in banter!)

 

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We need some of the lower dew points to keep filtering down into central NC. DPs still in 30s Raleigh and south, but 20s to even single digit DPs off to the NW of there. That is the critical piece I will be watching to get an idea of how well the cold air is working in. Obviously not too far to our NW

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13 minutes ago, ragtop50 said:

We need some of the lower dew points to keep filtering down into central NC. DPs still in 30s Raleigh and south, but 20s to even single digit DPs off to the NW of there. That is the critical piece I will be watching to get an idea of how well the cold air is working in. Obviously not too far to our NW

Good observation. Hickory has a DP of 22 while KCLT has a DP of 34 as of an hour ago. Hope to see that DP drop some more before the precip starts flowing in tomorrow morning.

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

The teleconnections don't look good for this storm let me tell ya

pm1bSvg.png

doXPSDv.png

We live in the South East.

I have always believed that more than half of our snow storms are usually thread the needle events.

The teleconnections do matter but it snows in bad patterns,

This last decade proves as much.

BTW Grit Thank you for all ur valuable input on this board.

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33 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Been wondering where the hell you’ve been 

I posted earlier. :) I honestly wasn't too keen on this one until yesterday.  Been some kind of a boring winter so far.  Maybe this turns the tide.  LR stuff is dropping in the cold to end the season, so maybe we get another shot.

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13 minutes ago, Tarheel17 said:

Good observation. Hickory has a DP of 22 while KCLT has a DP of 34 as of an hour ago. Hope to see that DP drop some more before the precip starts flowing in tomorrow morning.

It will be interesting to watch those actual dew points in comparison to where the NAM says they would be.  They look to be ahead of schedule and lower than predicted off to the NW.  Mt Airy shows a dew point of 11 as of last report on NWS

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2nd report from TX, I can tell you this is an over performer down here.  It has rained like cats and dogs all day.  QPF will NOT be the issue back home tomorrow unless we see convection fire up to the south.  I think someone mentioned that possibility earlier in the thread.  If you guys find the cold, I'm sending the liquid your way.:snowing:

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I've been impressed with how consistent the NAM has been with modeled precip.  Even during the big storm in Dec 18, it had various runs where it was splotchy here and there with the QPF output....not this time.  I'd expect the radar to look good and consistent tomorrow.
ZboQGx7.gif&key=f4eee56d8afe36526576a6e22d6d80eb9f564242e89c5b4304fbd750a296c284

It hasn’t budged, a really remarkable performance that should be seared into the mind of any met going forward.
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