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One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
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23 minutes ago, griteater said:

Raleigh NWS has the chance of precipitation tomorrow and tomorrow night in Greensboro at 50%.  That's kind of astounding.

They have Greensboro and Winston-Salem both with 1 inch of snow in the forecast.  I'd take the over on that one all day long

Even when throwing out the highest outliers, the SREF plums for GSO doubled from 2” to 4” from the 9z to 15z.  If GSO gets blanked tomorrow, what will that say about the models?

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1 minute ago, magpiemaniac said:

Even when throwing out the highest outliers, the SREF plums for GSO doubled from 2” to 4” from the 9z to 15z.  If GSO gets blanked tomorrow, what will that say about the models?

It will say that Raleigh NWS knows what they're talking about!

But I don't buy it for one bit

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14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Like the “ highly subject to change “ part! I’m hoping for some clearing and lower temps than forecast! Supposed to be 40/41 at onset!

Just can’t see much clearing from the looks of this...

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

 

ed:maybe not the right band to look at

ed2: looking at Sugar webcams, definitely clearing there,

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For the zone from the far northern upstate thru northern Mecklenburg country (north Charlotte) thru Raleigh, it's simply a tough call.  The near surface above freezing layer is very shallow.  Good, steady precip could knock the surface temperatures right down to 32-33...and with cold air pouring in to the system aloft right as the precip gets going good, any warm nosing there could get mitigated.  Good luck to all!

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Just now, griteater said:

For the zone from the far northern upstate thru northern Mecklenburg country (north Charlotte) thru Raleigh, it's simply a tough call.  The near surface above freezing layer is very shallow.  Good, steady precip could knock the surface temperatures right down to 32-33...and with cold air pouring in to the system aloft right as the precip gets going good, any warm nosing there could get mitigated.  Good luck to all!

Latest future radar on WYFF, has a quicker transition to snow! About 11AM it makes it to 85, about 2 hours earlier than last run! If we get any help, hour or two of clearing, maybe lower DPs, anything would help! Watching rain and waiting for changeover, is tough!

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Latest future radar on WYFF, has a quicker transition to snow! About 11AM it makes it to 85, about 2 hours earlier than last run! If we get any help, hour or two of clearing, maybe lower DPs, anything would help! Watching rain and waiting for changeover, is tough!

Those in house models are usually good at this range. I know because I've been burned believing other models saying snow and in house models being rain. And guess what? Rain it was. But as far as no WWA they must not be expecting many road problems and any accumulation to stay in grassy surface..idk

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5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Latest future radar on WYFF, has a quicker transition to snow! About 11AM it makes it to 85, about 2 hours earlier than last run! If we get any help, hour or two of clearing, maybe lower DPs, anything would help! Watching rain and waiting for changeover, is tough!

Hrrr is still looking good in regards to the 800mb warm nose for tomorrow. 

This the latest run for 8am tomorrow. That line on the radar running through the upstate denotes the warmnose cutoff, I've confirmed with soundings. The 18z HRRR kept that line in place for a few hours before shifting it south a little as the heavier precip arrives.

Screen Shot 2020-02-19 at 5.09.40 PM.png

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Just now, ATLMet84 said:

So forgive me if this has already been stated but is this a CAD situation or just cold HP coming in from the NW? 

There is a CAD element involved for the upstate and NC. Without the CAD our boundary layer conditions would be horrible.  With the cad we have a nice punch of sub-freezing air at 925mb, allowing snow to reach the ground as long as the mid-level warm nose doesn't mess things up.

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4 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

21z RAP just came out and it's all snow for the northern upstate,(assuming low levels aren't as warm as depicted.)

In fact, it's not even isothermal at my house. I've got a -1C buffer through the column.

 

 

 

Let's hope that comes true! Coming from a teacher in Pickens County hoping for an early release tomorrow! 

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14 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

There is a CAD element involved for the upstate and NC. Without the CAD our boundary layer conditions would be horrible.  With the cad we have a nice punch of sub-freezing air at 925mb, allowing snow to reach the ground as long as the mid-level warm nose doesn't mess things up.

So, I assume that is why us in N GA aren't expecting much of anything. Horrible boundary layer without CAD, just relying on cold from the NW (which is a death wish down here, cold chasing moisture).

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