mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Not even a WWA here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Not even a WWA here! Are you shocked? I hope not. That should tell us to prepare for nothing but token flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Johnson Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Up’d the totals some from GSP. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Not even a WWA here! same here, it's one county above us and one county below us but not for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, David Johnson said: Up’d the totals some from GSP . Like the “ highly subject to change “ part! I’m hoping for some clearing and lower temps than forecast! Supposed to be 40/41 at onset! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Well, I guess someone had to be first... Breaking News: Cumberland County Schools to release students 2 hours early Thursday, start classes 2 hours late Friday #wral 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 23 minutes ago, griteater said: Raleigh NWS has the chance of precipitation tomorrow and tomorrow night in Greensboro at 50%. That's kind of astounding. They have Greensboro and Winston-Salem both with 1 inch of snow in the forecast. I'd take the over on that one all day long Even when throwing out the highest outliers, the SREF plums for GSO doubled from 2” to 4” from the 9z to 15z. If GSO gets blanked tomorrow, what will that say about the models? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 when can we start now casting and looking for trends out west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, magpiemaniac said: Even when throwing out the highest outliers, the SREF plums for GSO doubled from 2” to 4” from the 9z to 15z. If GSO gets blanked tomorrow, what will that say about the models? It will say that Raleigh NWS knows what they're talking about! But I don't buy it for one bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Grayman said: when can we start now casting and looking for trends out west? Technically now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 11 minutes ago, David Johnson said: Up’d the totals some from GSP 2-3 in Iredell county. Score! lol. I'll take it. Let me see some flakes fly for a while, make a few snowballs, and let's get on with spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, Solak said: Well, I guess someone had to be first... Breaking News: Cumberland County Schools to release students 2 hours early Thursday, start classes 2 hours late Friday #wral Moore county schools are releasing an hour early tomorrow, not decision yet for Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, Snow haven said: Moore county schools are releasing an hour early tomorrow, not decision yet for Friday. Chatham and Lee will probably follow suit soon... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Like the “ highly subject to change “ part! I’m hoping for some clearing and lower temps than forecast! Supposed to be 40/41 at onset! Just can’t see much clearing from the looks of this... https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12 ed:maybe not the right band to look at ed2: looking at Sugar webcams, definitely clearing there, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 For the zone from the far northern upstate thru northern Mecklenburg country (north Charlotte) thru Raleigh, it's simply a tough call. The near surface above freezing layer is very shallow. Good, steady precip could knock the surface temperatures right down to 32-33...and with cold air pouring in to the system aloft right as the precip gets going good, any warm nosing there could get mitigated. Good luck to all! 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Is there any chance of the famous 'deformation band' setting up, or is that kind of setup not in play with this system? Only asking since it is often mentioned with our coastal snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, griteater said: For the zone from the far northern upstate thru northern Mecklenburg country (north Charlotte) thru Raleigh, it's simply a tough call. The near surface above freezing layer is very shallow. Good, steady precip could knock the surface temperatures right down to 32-33...and with cold air pouring in to the system aloft right as the precip gets going good, any warm nosing there could get mitigated. Good luck to all! Latest future radar on WYFF, has a quicker transition to snow! About 11AM it makes it to 85, about 2 hours earlier than last run! If we get any help, hour or two of clearing, maybe lower DPs, anything would help! Watching rain and waiting for changeover, is tough! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 The teleconnections don't look good for this storm let me tell ya 1 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Latest future radar on WYFF, has a quicker transition to snow! About 11AM it makes it to 85, about 2 hours earlier than last run! If we get any help, hour or two of clearing, maybe lower DPs, anything would help! Watching rain and waiting for changeover, is tough! Those in house models are usually good at this range. I know because I've been burned believing other models saying snow and in house models being rain. And guess what? Rain it was. But as far as no WWA they must not be expecting many road problems and any accumulation to stay in grassy surface..idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Latest future radar on WYFF, has a quicker transition to snow! About 11AM it makes it to 85, about 2 hours earlier than last run! If we get any help, hour or two of clearing, maybe lower DPs, anything would help! Watching rain and waiting for changeover, is tough! Hrrr is still looking good in regards to the 800mb warm nose for tomorrow. This the latest run for 8am tomorrow. That line on the radar running through the upstate denotes the warmnose cutoff, I've confirmed with soundings. The 18z HRRR kept that line in place for a few hours before shifting it south a little as the heavier precip arrives. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLMet84 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 So forgive me if this has already been stated but is this a CAD situation or just cold HP coming in from the NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, griteater said: The teleconnections don't look good for this storm let me tell ya It is amazing we're talking about snow at all considering the overall pattern. Just think what we can do next year with a raging -AO and super pumped +PNA! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, ATLMet84 said: So forgive me if this has already been stated but is this a CAD situation or just cold HP coming in from the NW? HP coming from the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold air aloft Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, ATLMet84 said: So forgive me if this has already been stated but is this a CAD situation or just cold HP coming in from the NW? The latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, ATLMet84 said: So forgive me if this has already been stated but is this a CAD situation or just cold HP coming in from the NW? There is a CAD element involved for the upstate and NC. Without the CAD our boundary layer conditions would be horrible. With the cad we have a nice punch of sub-freezing air at 925mb, allowing snow to reach the ground as long as the mid-level warm nose doesn't mess things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 21z RAP just came out and it's all snow for the northern upstate,(assuming low levels aren't as warm as depicted.) In fact, it's not even isothermal at my house. I've got a -1C buffer through the column. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrown85 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, burrel2 said: 21z RAP just came out and it's all snow for the northern upstate,(assuming low levels aren't as warm as depicted.) In fact, it's not even isothermal at my house. I've got a -1C buffer through the column. Let's hope that comes true! Coming from a teacher in Pickens County hoping for an early release tomorrow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 The 21z RAP was not kind to the NC foothills. This is through 7am Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLMet84 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, burrel2 said: There is a CAD element involved for the upstate and NC. Without the CAD our boundary layer conditions would be horrible. With the cad we have a nice punch of sub-freezing air at 925mb, allowing snow to reach the ground as long as the mid-level warm nose doesn't mess things up. So, I assume that is why us in N GA aren't expecting much of anything. Horrible boundary layer without CAD, just relying on cold from the NW (which is a death wish down here, cold chasing moisture). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 If the RAP and HRRR are to be believed. Precip does not arrive in the Upstate until around noon tomorrow. With most of the qpf falling from 1pm-3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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