Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
 Share

Recommended Posts

26 minutes ago, ThePackBacker said:

I came back to American for this call...a dusting to 2"!  Where's ColdRain...can he not bring the smack down on this. :-)

This setup is a little different than most with the southsinking/progressive HP.

Ha, yeah the south sinking cold air right as the precip maximizes is indeed unusual

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I find it kinda odd the NE part of that advisory is not a WSW. I think they meet criteria easily. For the Triangle, I agree with the WWA, but it would not surprise me to hit WSW type snows anywhere in that advisory area really. The spread is definitely high with this storm

Agreed. I have a theory they're just leaning conservative, and will likely upgrade to WSW's in the NE part later tonight or early AM tomorrow.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I find it kinda odd the NE part of that advisory is not a WSW. I think they meet criteria easily. For the Triangle, I agree with the WWA, but it would not surprise me to hit WSW type snows anywhere in that advisory area really. The spread is definitely high with this storm

 

5 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

The HRRR, somehow, warms us up to near 50 degrees tomorrow despite 100% cloud cover. 

That's a bit concerning.  The snow finally breaks out over far NE NC.  

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, burrel2 said:

Me likey the 18z HRRR... keeps the warm nose at i-85 in SC for the duration of the storm. Assuming it's surface temps are off, it's all snow for the northern upstate... 2-4 inches assumig its cold enough to stick. Precip looks anemic for the piedmont of NC though.

Yep, I chose to just ignore the surface and 925 temps cause physics says that if it's that cold at 850 with heavy precip it isn't suddenly warming in the layers below it. It did the same with the previous storm. Had the surface way too warm by as much 5-10 degrees. Showed even the Mtns changing to rain, when as we know the exact opposite happened with snow making it as far south as Atlanta and Athens. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I don't know what their Warning criteria is but the text in the watch area sounds like they are expecting 2-3 in of snow which is in line with the WWA for the Raleigh forecast area

Not sure how up to date this is, but here is AKQs warning criteria: https://www.weather.gov/media/akq/miscNEWS/criteria.pdf

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

Yep, I chose to just ignore the surface and 925 temps cause physics says that if it's that cold at 850 with heavy precip it isn't suddenly warming in the layers below it. It did the same with the previous storm. Had the surface way too warm by as much 5-10 degrees. Showed even the Mtns changing to rain, when as we know the exact opposite happened with snow making it as far south as Atlanta and Athens. 

That's what I'm hoping for right now. Last system had me changing to rain, but with how heavy the precip was, our temp dropped as we stayed all snow. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ST21 said:

That's what I'm hoping for right now. Last system had me changing to rain, but with how heavy the precip was, our temp dropped as we stayed all snow. 

Yep. My concern with this system is whether or not the mid/upper levels cool in time and stay that way. Surface temps in the mid/upper 30s is fine for wet snow but the upper levels have to cooperate. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Not sure how up to date this is, but here is AKQs warning criteria: https://www.weather.gov/media/akq/miscNEWS/criteria.pdf

Thanks, looks like RAH's and AKQs are the same criteria.

Interestingly, the current watch areas are not currently forecasted w/greater amounts, although I think we can agree the potential is greater. I wonder if that has something to do with it or just different office preferences. Probably overthinking it..

Now I wanna see what MHX does. :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...