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One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
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8 minutes ago, Weatherzim said:

Does it give a better look for upstate sc

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The Northern upstate is "in the game" so to speak.  No way to know what's going to happen yet. Could get blanked or could get a widespread 2-4 inches.

My gut says mostly nothing since every storm I've ever tracked with an 800mb'ish warm nose has verified much warmer at that level than what short range guidance showed. But I think this storm may be different since we aren't seeing a strong push of warmer air with the precip, it's more just where the 0c line settles out/stall tonight with the frontal passage, and then when does it start back progressing South tomorrow?

Just an FYI, there will most likely be a slight "push north" of the warm nose for Southeastern NC.  I'm speaking for the western upstate here.

Any way you slice it, the CC radars should get heavy use tomorrow from our board.

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2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Noted the 17z HRRR is a full five(!) degrees colder at the surface than the GFS. 

I expect some snow outside of the Mtns on this 36 hr 18z run. The surface temps were 4-6 degrees colder at the end of the 17z run verses the 12z run at the same time frame.  The 18z is running now.  

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4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

My initial thinking right now is as follows:

Greenville, NC: 3"-6"
Norfolk: 2"-4"
Raleigh: 2"-4"
Wilmington: 1" or less

For perspective, below is snowfall data for the above four cities:

NC02192020.jpg

I don't think that Greenville, NC snow data is correct. Pretty sure they've gotten 6+ in the last 10 years..

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2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I don't think that Greenville, NC snow data is correct. Pretty sure they've gotten 6+ in the last 10 years..

Also we have not seen a flake since Dec 10th 2018 not 2019.....in the Jan 2018 storm I had 7-8" but officially they listed like 4-5".....we had 8" in Dec 2010 for sure.

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StormTotalSnowWeb2_19.thumb.png.9ce6fe37f2b0255fea7d5ad494f86d47.png

Will be interesting to see what RAH does with issuing Advisories or Warnings this afternoon. My guess is WWA's for Guilford, Randolph, and everyone E of there, and N of Montgomery and Cumberland.

Perhaps WWW's for counties N and E of Wake/Durham, which are flirting with warning criteria according to what's seen here.

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8 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

 

StormTotalSnowWeb2_19.thumb.png.9ce6fe37f2b0255fea7d5ad494f86d47.png

Will be interesting to see what RAH does with issuing Advisories or Warnings this afternoon. My guess is WWA's for Guilford, Randolph, and everyone E of there, and N of Montgomery and Cumberland.

Perhaps WWW's for counties N and E of Wake/Durham, which are flirting with warning criteria according to what's seen here.

The NWS RAH just pulled the trigger on WWA's for most of their counties.  

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WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the afternoon or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Hazardous travel conditions could extend
  into Friday morning where higher snow accumulations occur and
  wet or icy spots linger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Map of Forecast Area

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