burrel2 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 It's running on NCEP. Looks a little drier in the coastal plain of NC as the .75 inch line has shifted from Raleigh to just inland from the coast. Can't tell much on temperatures yet. Hopefully thermal profiles are a little better as a result. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, yotaman said: It is still at least 36 hours away so I don't expect watches or warnings to be issued until either tonight or by tomorrow morning. Not for SW NC it will be starting in less than 24 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 @Snow haven I’m in rockingham . We are on the razor edge . I could see Northern part of county getting more based on history. It’s going to be close for sure. Hoping for back end thump and shift 30 miles south for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, yotaman said: It is still at least 36 hours away so I don't expect watches or warnings to be issued until either tonight or by tomorrow morning. From what I can recall, those normally come out in the afternoon packages. Around 3-4pm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 The 12z 3km NAM has a warm nose of 4C at 800mb at 4am tomorrow morning for my location. The 14z Hrrr, has the that same warm nose peaking at 1.5C at 3am tomorrow. Edit: it's actually more like .5C Really have to hope the HRRR is on to something with these 800mb temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 13 minutes ago, Grayman said: @Snow haven I’m in rockingham . We are on the razor edge . I could see Northern part of county getting more based on history. It’s going to be close for sure. Hoping for back end thump and shift 30 miles south for us. Absolutely, its always threading a needle with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Charlotte spectrum news futurecast at 1pm tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I hope you guys get nailed! Enjoy it!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 HREF Mean Snowfall 1st image is from this morning's 12z run......2nd image is from last night's 00z run (it still had more snow to go in eastern sections as it ends at hr48) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 HREF Precip Type 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, griteater said: HREF Precip Type Awesome progression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishbfm Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Can someone please turn GFS off and turn it back on again please? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 The GFS is the biggest troll around. Always malfunctions when eyes are on it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, griteater said: HREF Precip Type If we could start and finish the storm with snow that would be great. It keeps the rain/snow line nice and south of clt (well lake norman, then quickly goes south). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Well...through hour 18 lol... the GFS comparative to the 6z run is slightly north. Mostly noise not worth looking at...but since that's all we have for now... *looking at the 500mb height anomaly, not precip maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Nice signal for banded heavy snowfall across NC/far SE VA tomorrow evening. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, griteater said: HREF Precip Type Never been a huge fan of this but it has me right close to that mix line but just north of it during the heavier stuff. I am hoping the nam is too high with the warm nose based on it's closer approach with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Canadian beefed up snow across central/ENC a good bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 45 minutes ago, yotaman said: It is still at least 36 hours away so I don't expect watches or warnings to be issued until either tonight or by tomorrow morning. Haha, issuing Winter Storm Warnings the day OF the event without a Watch lol. Sounds like GSP on 2.8... I'd bet watches will be put out with the afternoon updates. They are probably waiting to decipher the 12Z data. I think that's the right call. I do think we will see watches and the NWS will become a little more aggressive with the new-found consistency pointing towards at least a moderate event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, griteater said: HREF Mean Snowfall 1st image is from this morning's 12z run......2nd image is from last night's 00z run (it still had more snow to go in eastern sections as it ends at hr48) I like the 1st map but need that green to move about 30 miles south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 GFS running finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 16 minutes ago, griteater said: HREF Precip Type I'd take that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I think the GFS is having some issues. Looks quite different than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 GFS quick and out barely any snow as far as I can tell. Anyone have the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 GFS has backed off a bit on totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Don’t us global less than 24 hours out, go with hi res mesoscale models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 QPF slightly less but it's the sfc temps killing the snowfall amts 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: GFS has backed off a bit on totals. GEFS ensembles have backed off the last few runs as well. It looks like it will be a now casting storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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