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One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
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This run of the NAM pretty much matches the track and precip footprint of the GFS/Euro, but it's simply much heavier with the precip on the north side owning to potentially resolving the higher resolution dynamics at play (heavy frontogenesis).  Maybe the NAM is too heavy with the precip and maybe the globals are too light

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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

This run of the NAM pretty much matches the track and precip footprint of the GFS/Euro, but it's simply much heavier with the precip on the north side owning to potentially resolving the higher resolution dynamics at play (heavy frontogenesis).  Maybe the NAM is too heavy with the precip and maybe the globals are too light

I just wish this run were happening two days from now! Excellent runs of the NAM for a lot of the board.

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3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I know 540 line is not everything, but how is it running through RAH, and snow and sleet into the upstate?

Mac - 543 is a better 1st guess in this part of the country than 540 (i.e. half way in between the 540 and 546 lines)...but soundings are the way to go to assess precip type

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14 minutes ago, griteater said:

This run of the NAM pretty much matches the track and precip footprint of the GFS/Euro, but it's simply much heavier with the precip on the north side owning to potentially resolving the higher resolution dynamics at play (heavy frontogenesis).  Maybe the NAM is too heavy with the precip and maybe the globals are too light

Yeah, that seems to be the big question...which is out to lunch, the nam or the globals? Man I want to believe but the long range nam versus the euro/ukmet.  My brain says that's not even a fight. 

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