buckeyefan1 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: Gonna come down to nowcasting for the northern upstate of SC. The HRRR and ARW both have my location's sounding going isothermal around 10am just as the heavy axis of precip moves in. The HRRR keeps surface temps at 34-36 though which would be an issue, but I'm guessing it has it's typical bias at play here. On the other hand, the 3km NAM has the warm nose holding strong until 1-3pm for the northern upstate. It shows surface temps at 32-33 however. If, if.... somehow the HRRR and ARW thermal profile is right then the northern upstate could get a 4 to 6 inch past job tomorrow as the heaviest rates come through between 10:00am and 3:00pm. If the 3km NAM is right, then we're going to see a lot of rain/white rain/sleet mix with a possible burst of moderate snow as the back edge swings through with little to no accumulations. It's all comes down to that 800mb warm nose, (and possibly surface temps even if the warm nose is overcome). Indeed it will. I’m having trouble pulling maps again today as I’m working at the sled office. I said a few days ago this could be like that March system a few years ago where it snowed all day, without accumulating. Fun times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Gonna come down to nowcasting for the northern upstate of SC. The HRRR and ARW both have my location's sounding going isothermal around 10am just as the heavy axis of precip moves in. The HRRR keeps surface temps at 34-36 though which would be an issue, but I'm guessing it has it's typical bias at play here. On the other hand, the 3km NAM has the warm nose holding strong until 1-3pm for the northern upstate. It shows surface temps at 32-33 however. If, if.... somehow the HRRR and ARW thermal profile is right then the northern upstate could get a 4 to 6 inch past job tomorrow as the heaviest rates come through between 10:00am and 3:00pm. If the 3km NAM is right, then we're going to see a lot of rain/white rain/sleet mix with a possible burst of moderate snow as the back edge swings through with little to no accumulations. It's all comes down to that 800mb warm nose, (and possibly surface temps even if the warm nose is overcome). I would be really nervous in the Raleigh area as it looks like the warm nose will most likely push in to that area during height of the storm. Also I wouldn't bank on the precip outlasting the nose on the backside there. Whoever stays just to north of the warm nose push in that region is going to get 6-10 inches. Whoever is just to the south of it is going to be extremely disappointed. My best guess is Southern Wake gets 1-3 inches of snow/sleet from the storm will the northern end of the county gets the jackpot. Good analysis Burrel. These systems keep coming through in the middle of the day for the upstate, 6 hours later could have made a world of difference in this case, not just because of time of day but because of timing with cold. Timing is what kept us from getting the totals GA saw back on 2/8 as well. I think the upstate is going to be all over the place with this one, with most seeing no accumulation at all. Pockets that have a hair more cold and less warm nosing could see up to several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Robert mentions thunder possible tomorrow from ATL,CAE, to CLT in his latest post on FB! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 12z NAM bufkit gives RDU 13" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Sleet will still accumulate at 33-34. I was on the wrong side of a warm nose for a storm a few years ago... the lowest my temp dropped to was 33.1, and started rising from that point and I wound up with an inch and half of sleet that also coated the roads. Sleet accumulated here last year at 35 or 36 after a couple days in the 70s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Could anyone tell me how to get a Sref for my area? Trying to learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: If this ends up with less of a warm nose, eastern NC is gonna get pummeled. The qpf is there, just need thermals to cooperate and bust low. My hope is that as the MHX office says the nam is just too close to the coast with the low. If that can be another 40 to 50 miles south dropping that warm nose back to the southern coastal plains then central eastern coastal plains get more snow less mixing. This is one time we need the low to blend with the amped nam and the suppressed euro and meet in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: 12z NAM bufkit gives RDU 13" What about PGV? We are flirting with that mix line hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Grayman said: Could anyone tell me how to get a Sref for my area? Trying to learn https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Have to admit, I am a bit surprised there are no Winter Storm Watches for at least NE NC or SW NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, shaggy said: What about PGV? We are flirting with that mix line hard. That is the ideal spot. MA Handbook reads: be close enough to the mix line to sniff the rain, there shall the big dog eat. Also in the MA Handbook concerning timing of snow: Snow at dark has the most bark, the big possum walks late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 12z GFS is running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, shaggy said: What about PGV? We are flirting with that mix line hard. 7.8. It looks like we benefit from better ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Robert mentions thunder possible tomorrow from ATL,CAE, to CLT in his latest post on FB! His opening line is comical....there is clearly one state missing in that lineup! OURS! The new model data from NAM is in. Snow increases in much more of Tennessee, extreme northern Alabama, extreme northern Georgia and much of North Carolina and much of southern and central Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 GFS isn't updating for me on pivotalwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 This is essentially I540 between Durham and Raleigh. Text data shows it still below freezing. Roughly within a half degree. It's a thin layer but shouldn't see consequence of a warm layer roughly 32-33. Who knows could be overcome real easy. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Brad P's latest thoughts. Does a good job of describing the soundings and would probably be helpful to anyone that isn't comfortable reading them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Well if it keeps going north, I'm going to be out of it with only rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Tony Sisk said: His opening line is comical....there is clearly one state missing in that lineup! OURS! The new model data from NAM is in. Snow increases in much more of Tennessee, extreme northern Alabama, extreme northern Georgia and much of North Carolina and much of southern and central Virginia. I think northern Pickens and Oconee will get a good snow out of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, FLweather said: This is essentially I540 between Durham and Raleigh. Text data shows it still below freezing. Roughly within a half degree. It's a thin layer but shouldn't see consequence of a warm layer roughly 32-33. Who knows could be overcome real easy. Date: 30 hour NAM valid 18Z THU 20 FEB 20 Station: 36.05,-78.96 Latitude: 36.05 Longitude: -78.96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1012 135 0.7 -0.1 94 0.9 0.4 36 8 272.9 273.6 272.9 283.0 3.73 1 1000 230 -0.4 -0.8 97 0.4 -0.5 38 12 272.8 273.4 272.6 282.5 3.61 2 950 638 -3.4 -4.0 96 0.6 -3.6 45 21 273.8 274.3 272.3 282.0 3.00 3 900 1065 -3.8 -4.5 95 0.7 -4.1 34 22 277.6 278.1 274.6 286.0 3.04 4 850 1516 -4.2 -5.1 94 0.9 -4.6 12 13 281.7 282.3 276.9 290.4 3.08 5 800 1996 -1.5 -1.9 97 0.5 -1.7 181 20 289.6 290.3 282.0 301.6 4.15 6 750 2512 -1.4 -1.7 97 0.4 -1.6 200 37 295.1 295.9 284.7 308.3 4.49 7 700 3060 -3.6 -4.1 96 0.6 -3.8 220 37 298.5 299.3 285.5 310.6 4.03 8 650 3643 -6.5 -7.3 94 0.8 -6.8 229 41 301.6 302.2 286.0 312.0 3.39 9 600 4264 -10.1 -11.3 90 1.3 -10.5 238 44 304.5 305.0 286.3 312.8 2.68 10 550 4931 -12.8 -14.4 88 1.6 -13.3 250 53 308.9 309.3 287.5 316.1 2.27 11 500 5651 -18.2 -20.3 84 2.1 -18.8 252 50 310.8 311.1 287.3 315.8 1.52 12 450 6430 -22.6 -25.0 81 2.4 -23.1 241 59 314.8 315.0 288.3 318.6 1.11 13 400 7287 -26.9 -29.5 78 2.6 -27.4 239 81 320.0 320.2 289.6 322.9 0.83 14 350 8235 -34.1 -37.2 73 3.1 -34.4 244 90 322.8 322.9 290.1 324.4 0.45 15 300 9300 -41.6 -44.9 71 3.3 -41.8 258 111 326.7 326.8 291.0 327.6 0.23 16 250 10505 -52.0 -55.8 64 3.7 -52.2 264 120 328.7 328.7 291.5 329.0 0.08 17 200 11929 -56.3 -72.5 11 16.2 -56.6 274 142 343.5 343.5 295.2 343.6 0.01 18 150 13754 -56.4 -83.3 2 26.9 -56.7 281 122 372.9 372.9 301.1 372.9 0.00 19 100 16287 -64.9 -82.1 8 17.3 -65.0 258 89 402.4 402.4 305.5 402.4 0.00 TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Date: 33 hour NAM valid 21Z THU 20 FEB 20 Station: 36.05,-78.96 Latitude: 36.05 Longitude: -78.96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1000 215 -0.7 33 13 272.5 1 950 622 -4.1 -4.8 95 0.7 -4.3 41 27 273.1 273.5 271.6 280.8 2.82 2 900 1048 -4.3 -5.2 94 0.8 -4.7 32 30 277.0 277.5 274.0 285.0 2.88 3 850 1497 -5.9 -6.9 92 1.0 -6.2 17 26 280.0 280.4 275.4 287.5 2.67 4 800 1973 -3.9 -4.3 97 0.4 -4.0 134 14 287.0 287.6 280.0 297.0 3.47 5 750 2488 -0.8 -1.1 98 0.3 -0.9 185 43 295.7 296.6 285.2 309.7 4.72 6 700 3037 -2.9 -3.4 96 0.5 -3.1 219 35 299.3 300.1 286.1 312.1 4.25 7 650 3621 -6.1 -7.0 94 0.8 -6.5 231 37 302.0 302.7 286.3 312.7 3.49 8 600 4244 -9.1 -10.3 91 1.2 -9.6 244 42 305.5 306.1 286.9 314.6 2.90 9 550 4913 -12.4 -13.9 89 1.5 -12.9 244 54 309.4 309.8 287.8 317.0 2.38 10 500 5635 -17.4 -19.3 85 1.9 -17.9 249 58 311.9 312.2 287.9 317.4 1.66 11 450 6415 -22.4 -24.7 81 2.4 -22.9 239 65 315.1 315.3 288.4 319.0 1.14 12 400 7272 -27.1 -29.7 78 2.7 -27.5 234 83 319.8 320.0 289.6 322.7 0.81 13 350 8221 -33.8 -37.0 73 3.1 -34.2 238 97 323.1 323.2 290.2 324.8 0.46 14 300 9286 -41.4 -44.7 70 3.3 -41.6 251 111 327.1 327.1 291.2 328.0 0.24 15 250 10493 -51.6 254 121 329.4 16 200 11920 -55.8 268 152 344.4 17 150 13733 -59.3 276 144 367.9 18 100 16265 -63.0 256 70 406.0 TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 28 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Gonna come down to nowcasting for the northern upstate of SC. The HRRR and ARW both have my location's sounding going isothermal around 10am just as the heavy axis of precip moves in. The HRRR keeps surface temps at 34-36 though which would be an issue, but I'm guessing it has it's typical bias at play here. On the other hand, the 3km NAM has the warm nose holding strong until 1-3pm for the northern upstate. It shows surface temps at 32-33 however. If, if.... somehow the HRRR and ARW thermal profile is right then the northern upstate could get a 4 to 6 inch past job tomorrow as the heaviest rates come through between 10:00am and 3:00pm. If the 3km NAM is right, then we're going to see a lot of rain/white rain/sleet mix with a possible burst of moderate snow as the back edge swings through with little to no accumulations. It's all comes down to that 800mb warm nose, (and possibly surface temps even if the warm nose is overcome). I would be really nervous in the Raleigh area as it looks like the warm nose will most likely push in to that area during height of the storm. Also I wouldn't bank on the precip outlasting the nose on the backside there. Whoever stays just to north of the warm nose push in that region is going to get 6-10 inches. Whoever is just to the south of it is going to be extremely disappointed. My best guess is Southern Wake gets 1-3 inches of snow/sleet from the storm will the northern end of the county gets the jackpot. Thanks burrel2 for your thoughts. Nam has been on a roll here but I'm rooting against parts of it's over amped solution! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I ran some quick soundings and didnt find a sleet layer until Sanford. Even then, we're only looking at two layers above freezing and just at 32.3 or so. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, BullCityWx said: I ran some quick soundings and didnt find a sleet layer until Sanford. I'm below Sanford in Rockingham, so rain down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, wncsnow said: GFS isn't updating for me on pivotalwx same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, Snow haven said: I'm below Sanford in Rockingham, so rain down here? I could see someone from about Wadesboro to Laurinburg getting a few inches of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, frazdaddy said: same here It's stuck on wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, BullCityWx said: It's stuck on wxbell and on TTidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I didnt see any major changes on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 20 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Have to admit, I am a bit surprised there are no Winter Storm Watches for at least NE NC or SW NC. It is still at least 36 hours away so I don't expect watches or warnings to be issued until either tonight or by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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