griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 GFS is a touch south with precip and temperatures 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, griteater said: GFS isn't going to move north this run I actually see this as good news 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, griteater said: GFS isn't going to move north this run Not as juicy as the 18z and nothing like the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 GFS - plenty of precip there, just need sfc temps to cooperate to make magic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 GFS soundings are all snow at Raleigh Airport 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Good luck everyone! Post pictures please. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Before this gets crazy during tomorrow's main event (model smackdown) I just wanted to thank everyone here for putting forth some great knowledge and really showing the model runs.... But I must admit, I do miss Burgertime's PBP... 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 SREF Plumes doubled again. Up to 2.05 in GSO. On a side note, Tim Buckley said forget all you other peeps....I'm going all in ! First call 2-4" in the triad and mentioned that it could be higher. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Well the north trend is over if the GFS is to be believed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Take the GFS qpf and the NAM warm nose and that’s your storm. NAM has sniffed out more than enough warm noses in my area over the years for me to never underestimate it. I’ve also seen it ramp up QPF like crazy right up to the storm and then verify with half what was modeled. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, GunBlade said: Take the GFS qpf and the NAM warm nose and that’s your storm. NAM has sniffed out more than enough warm noses in my area over the years for me to never underestimate it. I’ve also seen it ramp up QPF like crazy right up to the storm and then verify with half what was modeled. That was prior to it’s upgrade. NAM doesn’t overdue qpf like it use to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Looks pretty similar to 18z. Mainly noise. Time for bed. On to tomorrow. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Great post by Robert (wxsouth) on Facebook. In other news the Canadian is still trying to come north but not quite with the GFS or NAM yet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbiegull Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 NWS local forecast now showing 8 to 12 inches possible in Nash county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Great post by Robert (wxsouth) on Facebook. In other news the Canadian is still trying to come north but not quite with the GFS or NAM yet Looking at the soundings on the Canadian and literally everything looks good except the surface. It's as if somehow it's already saturated before the precip rolls in, therefore no evaporative cooling. It's a solid snow sounding in the mid/upper levels for most of the storm in N GA, except where the GFS is sitting between 32-35 the CMC is stuck on 40. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 UKMET with a big jump north as well. Good trends 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: UKMET with a big jump north as well. Good trends Coming more in line, but man, the UKMet has been terrible with this one....and it has performed well at times for us in the past 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, griteater said: Coming more in line, but man, the UKMet has been terrible with this one....and it has performed well at times for us in the past It hasn't done well this year on our small events either... I bet the Euro takes another step north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: UKMET with a big jump north as well. Good trends Guessing temps are an issue? Almost all of the models are now showing temp issues. It is great to have more QPF, but without enough cold it is just cold rain. Any chance all the models bust on temps? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Guessing temps are an issue? Almost all of the models are now showing temp issues. It is great to have more QPF, but without enough cold it is just cold rain. Any chance all the models bust on temps? I think I saw on Twitter that while the models are showing rain, the soundings look more like snow. I don't know how true that is though, would love to get some sounding analysis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 High Res Ensemble Forecast (HREF) Precip Type 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Guessing temps are an issue? Almost all of the models are now showing temp issues. It is great to have more QPF, but without enough cold it is just cold rain. Any chance all the models bust on temps? Big difference between the temp issues on the NAM/GFS and the CMC/UKMET. NAM and GFS issue is mid level warm nose causing issues, most places with good precip are getting down into the 32-35 range which is fine for wet snow as long as it's cold above. CMC and UKMET really don't have a warm nose, they are just downright warm at the surface and they stay that way for the whole storm in a lot of places. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 HREF Snowfall at end of the run at hr48...still snowing in eastern 1/3 of NC 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, SnowDawg said: Big difference between the temp issues on the NAM/GFS and the CMC/UKMET. NAM and GFS issue is mid level warm nose causing issues, most places with good precip are getting down into the 32-35 range which is fine for wet snow as long as it's cold above. CMC and UKMET really don't have a warm nose, they are just downright warm at the surface and they stay that way for the whole storm in a lot of places. It's weird to see the GFS that cold at the surface when it is typically quite warm there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, SnowDawg said: Big difference between the temp issues on the NAM/GFS and the CMC/UKMET. NAM and GFS issue is mid level warm nose causing issues, most places with good precip are getting down into the 32-35 range which is fine for wet snow as long as it's cold above. CMC and UKMET really don't have a warm nose, they are just downright warm at the surface and they stay that way for the whole storm in a lot of places. I didn't know that. Thanks for sharing. It seems like the setup is slightly different on the models to a certain extent but temps are an issue regardless. It is the south, so that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, griteater said: It's weird to see the GFS that cold at the surface when it is typically quite warm there Have you looked at the GFS ensembles? Is there a free site for them? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, wncsnow said: Have you looked at the GFS ensembles? Is there a free site for them? Thanks Dupage is an excellent site for the GEFS - https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 30 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Great post by Robert (wxsouth) on Facebook. In other news the Canadian is still trying to come north but not quite with the GFS or NAM yet yep sounds like he's all in. Putting all my chips in too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Have you looked at the GFS ensembles? Is there a free site for them? Thanks The GEFS mean precip ticked south, just barely...matching the GFS move...they will probably lock in together now going forward 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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