StantonParkHoya Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 We in the mid-Atlantic always have the policy of cutting the NAM qpf in half at least. Id favor a Euro/GFS/NAM blend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I'm rooting against the NAM because it is showing that warm nose creeping into Wake. 800mb warm nose would be sleet/rain for most of Wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: We in the mid-Atlantic always have the policy of cutting the NAM qpf in half at least. Id favor a Euro/GFS/NAM blend. For sure I hope no one is expecting 12"+ now. But if we could squeeze a 4-6" event out of this miserable excuse for a winter I'd be thrilled. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: RAH updated their snow maps shortly after 9 and still have wake county less than one inch in the most likely scenario. They won't either until much closer to storm time.They do leave the opportunity for it to change. This has to be the 93rd post today that you have said this. The only thing you didn't add this time was the high was in the wrong place and ground temps are too warm. There are many more model runs still to go, this is the south after all and we are still riding the NAM.........for now 2 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You might wanna wake up yalls local WFOs down there. lol. Although admittedly, I'd wait for a few more runs of the GFS. We both know how the NAM likes to get precip happy. But looks like everything is bumping up and there is a real good trend for your region. Yup... overblown more than likely. Thinking a general 1-3" with 3-6" maximums east part of the state. Marginal temps.. wet snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 RDPS is coming in further north. Often overlooked but a solid short range model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: They won't either until much closer to storm time.They do leave the opportunity for it to change. This has to be the 93rd post today that you have said this. The only thing you didn't add this time was the high was in the wrong place and ground temps are too warm. There are many more model runs still to go, this is the south after all and we are still riding the NAM.........for now It's ok to be skeptical.. in fact I would encourage it! Better to learn than booing and hissing at anyone not playing along. But fingers crossed! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Tim Buckley (WFMY 2 in GSO) is all in. Finally someone is calling it! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBaBiDoLL Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Good luck guys. And I mean that sincerely. If anybody from outside this region starts coming in here to troll you, let me or any other mod know. Report or PM. Hope it works out (Just be wary of the NAM. It can be a heartbreaker..although it has support this time, so it's likely on to something). Looking forward to something. If anything. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Wow said: It's ok to be skeptical.. in fact I would encourage it! Better to learn than booing and hissing at anyone not playing along. But fingers crossed! Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, NCBaBiDoLL said: Looking forward to something. If anything. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 00z ICON did not climb north FWIW 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, Wow said: Yup... overblown more than likely. Thinking a general 1-3" with 3-6" maximums east part of the state. Marginal temps.. wet snow Surface temps are my pet peeve, listening to the snow melt and run down the gutters as it falls. With the nam moving North and North with the warm nose this may not be a very impactful storm for clt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: RDPS is coming in further north. Often overlooked but a solid short range model It did come north... but the snow maps on PW show barely anything unfortunately for you all 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, yoda said: It did come north... but the snow maps on PW show barely anything unfortunately for you all Yea the temps were a torch at the surface.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 ICON is all rain, and so it begins. Don't say that the ECMWF and UKMET didn't warn ya. Could be a lot of broken hearts throughout the Carolinas Thurs-Fri. Who knows though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 27 minutes ago, Wow said: Middle of the event and it's at or barely above freezing at the surface. Not the best look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I can’t believe sun angle hasn’t been mentioned once. You SE crew are a more upstanding group than us degenerates in MA. 3 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 This may end up being an event in the favored Triad areas and i40 corridor. Temps are super sketchy during the heaviest precip. Seen plenty of these snow or no events where I get 3-5" in Kernersville and nothing in Lexington or Mebane. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 The latest SREF mean snowfall is getting interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: I can’t believe sun angle hasn’t been mentioned once. You SE crew are a more upstanding group than us degenerates in MA. Sun? With all the rain we’ve had, we completely forgot about that thing. I’ll take half of what the 00z NAM is giving me after this poop of a winter. I missed Van Denton’s 10:00 PM forecast. I’ll be interested in what he has to say for the Triad. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I can’t believe sun angle hasn’t been mentioned once. You SE crew are a more upstanding group than us degenerates in MA. We have the warm nose to harp on instead (for good reason) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: ICON is all rain, and so it begins. Don't say that the ECMWF and UKMET didn't warn ya. Could be a lot of broken hearts throughout the Carolinas Thurs-Fri. Who knows though. ICON has been basically all rain. It's well known for being a bit too toasty at times. I wouldn't worry too much about it ever outside of seeing if it agrees with the bigger picture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 18 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: ICON is all rain, and so it begins. Don't say that the ECMWF and UKMET didn't warn ya. Could be a lot of broken hearts throughout the Carolinas Thurs-Fri. Who knows though. lol at bailing based on the ICON 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I can’t believe sun angle hasn’t been mentioned once. You SE crew are a more upstanding group than us degenerates in MA. Sun angle usually doesn't get mentioned here til the day before. Usually snow modeled 24+ hours away generally turns to rain before we have a chance to talk about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: lol at bailing based on the ICON To be somewhat fair, the ICON has had it's glory moments over the past few seasons that it's been publicly available, not saying it's onto something by any means. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 GFS out to hr39 is pretty much identical to the last run at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 46 minutes ago, Wow said: Middle of the event and it's at or barely above freezing at the surface. Good old fashion cement paste job. But given the thermal profiles...as long as your in a good heavy band more than likely will dip below freezing. Till the rates let up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 GFS isn't going to move north this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol at bailing based on the ICON Bailing due to ICON, UKMET, and ECMWF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now