SnowDawg Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: The QPF of the EURO bumped up due to a closer development of the low near the coast. However, the snow is still anemic because it delays the arrival of the cold air, due to the poor placement of the high. It's in basically the same place on all the models, NAM and GFS included so I'm not certain that's it. I thought that's been mentioned as like the perfect placement for strong HP during Miller A/over running? Looking at the pressure maps on the Euro vs the NAM. The NAM shows the high spilling over the Apps and creating a bit of a wedge signal. Idk if that is the reason for low snow, or if it's even significant though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Yes, the high is in the same placement in all those but it is taking longer to bleed the cold air over the apps in the euro/eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 major improvement on the 18Z Euro Ens....lots of members now showing decent event.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, downeastnc said: major improvement on the 18Z Euro Ens....lots of members now showing decent event.. Pictures or it never happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: Yes, the high is in the same placement in all those but it is taking longer to bleed the cold air over the apps in the euro/eps. Which, at this lead we should be using short term guidance more for thermals I believe? So as long as the Euro keeps bringing the juice I think it may self correct at crunch time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Lol of course SE local mets are going to start with the whole soil temps nonsense. It's almost like they don't know all that much about snow storms. Soil temps almost never matter in a noticeable way. Well documented soil temps were in the mid to upper 50s last week in GA and it certainly didn't hinder accumulations, and where the rates were heavy roads quickly became snowpacked. Also, many of our most infamous storms in history were immediately preceded by several 70+ degree days lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 You are correct, the synoptics are completely different this time though. Nothing in the upperlevels supports a extreme heavy snow event. More likely light to moderate. Maybe not the Synoptics, but at the mesoscale level the tight thermal gradient will cause a lot of forcing via frontogenesis, as well as straight up warm air advection. A gfs-or-nam like event would support heavy snow bands. 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 This has a feel like much like the best of the Hampton Roads storms I've experienced, just further south with the strong high, and fed by the robust southern stream that had been featured all winter. All that to say, a dynamic developing system with cold air over the top goes a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, ILMRoss said: Maybe not the Synoptics, but at the mesoscale level the tight thermal gradient will cause a lot of forcing via frontogenesis, as well as straight up warm air advection. A gfs-or-nam like event would support heavy snow bands. The NAM FGEN is it should go nuts if the NAM is right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 SREF just completely caved to the NAM too. Probably doubled snowfall in places from its previous run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Nam is rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 13 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: SREF just completely caved to the NAM too. Probably doubled snowfall in places from its previous run. We were at 1.6, roughly, and now at 3.6 roughly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Higher surface pressures bleeding into the SE faster this run at HR 24 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 24 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: This has a feel like much like the best of the Hampton Roads storms I've experienced, just further south with the strong high, and fed by the robust southern stream that had been featured all winter. All that to say, a dynamic developing system with cold air over the top goes a long way. The 04ish VA Beach storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 HKY went up just slightly from 1 inch to 1.8 or so. Still must be some downsloping showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Nam is coming in slower again it appears through 39. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Its looking a lot like the 18z so far 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Might be a bit warmer than 18z. Snow breaking out western NC at 39 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Warmer run from the NAM is incoming. It has slowly been trending warmer each run. Maybe trending toward all rain? 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 It's amazing we have the best models there have ever been and they still disagree so much this close to the storm. I was in Greensboro last winter for the 14 inch storm (and was in Boone the same storm when 2 plus feet fell) but kind of doubt anyone gets jackpotted like that. Would love to be proven wrong. Not holding much hope in Charlotte but a few inches would be great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Wow! I'm getting Name'd! On this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainmusic Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Warmer run from the NAM is incoming. It has slowly been trending warmer each run. Maybe trending toward all rain? Doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I’m liking what I’m seeing in this run. Already more accumulation at 42 compared to 18z. Edit: Are we seeing the northern trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Question is though is it typical NAM bias to over amp these things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 It's a good run for I40 north so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Big Snow Totals I-40 North! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Looks like more traditional battle lines (Snow/sleet/rain), given where the HP is projected to be. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Warmer run from the NAM is incoming. It has slowly been trending warmer each run. Maybe trending toward all rain? Real in-depth analysis... Wait till the actual precip moves in. Goodness gracious people 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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