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One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
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Local weather stations (Raleigh area) still going with "little to no accumulation", even with recent model data.  They are leaning heavily on the Euro ensembles and they showed the probability of 1" at 36%.  That number likely went down to 10-15% with the 18Z data based on QPF.

One thing to notice on the euro map just posted is the tight gradient of QPF in eastern NC.  Shifts in that 20-50 miles will make a big difference..  But it still looks like a very light event.  At this point I would forecast at most a slushy 1-2 inches on grassy surfaces for eastern NC...  not much elsewhere.  

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10 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Big issue with this system is placement of the high.  It is NOT in ideal territory.  Going to be hard to bleed that cold surface air over the mountains...always delayed.  

It’s sprawling and one of the strongest we’ve seen all winter. It looks on some of the models, as if a wedge tries to form

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7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Big issue with this system is placement of the high.  It is NOT in ideal territory.  Going to be hard to bleed that cold surface air over the mountains...always delayed.  

 

5 minutes ago, Extreme NEGA said:

Yep. PA or NY would be great :facepalm:

What on earth are you two talking about? It's a large sprawling 1047 high dropping in a pretty spot. If you are going to disagree with what is being shown, please show us your reasoning after you look at the wind direction as the system arrives. 

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National Weather Service in Raleigh is saying the same thing as of 2:50PM on Monday.  
 

Quote

The high is not in a favorable location for
the dense cold air to make it into NC very quickly...likely having
to filter across the central Appalachians and south through VA...and
so the probability of more than a rain/snow mix appears very low at
this time. 
Quote

 

 

 

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