magpiemaniac Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, dorkchopper said: What's the timeframe for this in the Durham area? I haven't seen it really posted anywhere, and if it has been, I overlooked it and I apolize. Thursday afternoon to early Friday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, dorkchopper said: Sorry for the annoying question (I promise I'll go back to lurking like I have been for the past 9 years). What's the timeframe for this in the Durham area? I haven't seen it really posted anywhere, and if it has been, I overlooked it and I apolize. Thank y'all for being so informative and fun to read. Hey man, I’m also in Durham in American Village. If you believe the NAM, heavy snow would start 1PM Thursday and snow about an inch an hour until Friday Morning. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 9 minutes ago, dorkchopper said: Sorry for the annoying question (I promise I'll go back to lurking like I have been for the past 9 years). What's the timeframe for this in the Durham area? I haven't seen it really posted anywhere, and if it has been, I overlooked it and I apolize. Thank y'all for being so informative and fun to read. That hasn't been nailed down, but we will for this exercise, assume the 3K NAM is close. This is the first panel that shows precip of a heavy nature over Durham. If you read the valid (not the init or initialization) on any of these forecast maps, it will tell you the time (this one 18Z), then subtract 5 hours for EST (these maps are all in UTC). So this would suggest this scenario pictured unfolding at 1300 or 1 PM on Thursday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 ICON shifted NW a good bit, hmmm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 NWS Raleigh is not very enthused and is mainly east of 95 with it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Have there been any other storms where there was such a huge difference in models at 48 hours? Seems crazy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Anyone have storm analogs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 BUFKIT gives RDU 16.4” 2 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, broken024 said: Have there been any other storms where there was such a huge difference in models at 48 hours? Seems crazy to me. Yeah, little over a week ago was the same story. Models didn't really converge until inside 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: BUFKIT gives RDU 16.4” 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 35 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Rgem is well south. This storm's outcome is still TBD. Here's 1pm Thursday. NAM has snow ripping across the entire state of NC and most of TN at this point. When does the HRW's run again burrel2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: BUFKIT gives RDU 16.4” Link for Bufkit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Link for Bufkit? https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Extreme NEGA said: When does the HRW's run again burrel2? I believe it only runs at 00z/12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 I mean, this thing has warm nose/no real accumulation for CLT proper and south written all over it. How many times have we seen it in recent years, even when GSP is actually calling for measurable accumulation? I think I've had 8+ inch snowfalls turn into an inch or so of slop each of the last 3 winters. And normally the warm nose doesn't even show up as much of an issue until much closer to the event. Hate to be a downer, but this just doesn't look good. Now, my in-laws up north/west of Huntersville (and several on the board well north of 85) will probably get some decent snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 18Z GFS running. Not looking as cold. Rainy at onset. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Small improvements on the GFS through 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 That "finger" of overrunning precip is showing up on the GFS for WNC. Good run for western part of state through 45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 upstate to clt thru rdu and greenville all snow at hr 51. another good gfs run coming. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 GSP 18NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Good run for even the upstate of SC on the GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Like a cheap table, the GFS has totally folded. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Best run of the GFS so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phelps Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: I mean, this thing has warm nose/no real accumulation for CLT proper and south written all over it. How many times have we seen it in recent years, even when GSP is actually calling for measurable accumulation? I think I've had 8+ inch snowfalls turn into an inch or so of slop each of the last 3 winters. And normally the warm nose doesn't even show up as much of an issue until much closer to the event. Hate to be a downer, but this just doesn't look good. Now, my in-laws up north/west of Huntersville (and several on the board well north of 85) will probably get some decent snowfall. Yep. I'm obviously not a met so this is really unsophisticated analysis but I have lived in Charlotte my whole life and I could easily see us sitting around waiting for a changeover that doesn't happen until it's too late. When things look borderline for us it hasn't gone well in recent memory and this looks borderline. Would love to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: Like a cheap table, the GFS has totally folded. I’d say it’s not done folding yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Best run of the GFS so far That looks like the 12Z run to me. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 That's not the whole storm for the eastern part of the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: That looks like the 12Z run to me. Odd. The simulated radar can be deceiving best to look at QPF totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Says it all 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now