eyewall Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, griteater said: It is pretty much holding for the time being. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 upstate and clt folks, a thing of beauty. feels good to have the 3km nam on our side with cooler upper levels this run. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 When does the northern trend start? But seriously, I need to see some guidance agreement before I’m buying. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Very sharp cutoff on the 12k NAM... Lynchburg 1" , Danville 5", Raleigh , 12"+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 13 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: wow, on 3km nam charlotte gets rid of the warm nose after hr48 and then we have an all snow sounding if sfc temps cooperate. interesting... 3 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: When does the northern trend start? But seriously, I need to see some guidance agreement before I’m buying. These things almost always climb north right. The fly in the ointment here is that the UKMet and Euro are headstrong on being south...so that flys counter to maybe conventional wisdom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: That’s a good point. It crossed my mind today. This is about where the euro was at this point in time as well IIRC Fishel didn't bite on that one till late as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 That damn warm nose in charlotte is like half a degree to warm at 800 mb, everything else below 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Very sharp cutoff on the 12k NAM... Lynchburg 1" , Danville 5", Raleigh , 12"+ The cutoff is even worse on the hi-res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 RAH Afternoon AFD With the cold front well to the south of the NC/SC border Thursday, central NC will remain under the influence of cold high pressure ridging southward into the region advecting cold air in from the north. This front is expected to remain south of the area as a coastal low develops off the SC coast Thursday aft/eve in response to an upper level shortwave. The proximity of this low to the NC coast and how much/far moisture extends to the NW will be the determining factor for how much snow will fall and accumulate. The wetter NAM/GFS solutions may be a bit too aggressive with the precipitation extending into central NC, while the much drier ECMWF solution may be more reasonable. Precipitation should start as rain, moving into the south during the aft/eve, which will help cool temperatures to the wetbulb values in the 30-32 degree range by Thursday night. There will likely be a period of rain mixed with snow, with little accumulation expected during that time. The best chance for snow accumulation will be if and where there is a transition to all snow. Regardless, there will likely be a "sweet spot" across eastern NC where snow could accumulate to more than an inch or two and a very tight gradient of snow amounts across the area. Given the uncertainty, will keep expected snowfall accumulations below warning criteria at this time, though still have about 1-2 inches in the Coastal Plain. Highs on Thursday will top out in the 40s, quickly lowering into the low 30s as rainfall occurs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 This is one heck of an event 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted February 18, 2020 Author Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: This is one heck of an event For those less educated (like me!) Could you explain what we're looking at here? Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Not sure how this is going to play out , but Tim Buckley said the High Pressure on the models is being overdone.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoMoJo Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Hi All, Does anyone know what all factors are included in the "Snow Depth" plots on Pivotal? Is it based on Kuchera or straight 10:1? Consider compaction? Melting due to ground temps? Is this plot generally accurate? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Tar Heel Snow said: For those less educated (like me!) Could you explain what we're looking at here? Thanks! So if you read from left to right: Hour valid on the model run/Date/time of day/temp/dew point/wind direction/speed/precip accumulation in those 3 hours. Below that, you have the precip type. The rest of it is not as important to know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Rgem is well south. This storm's outcome is still TBD. Here's 1pm Thursday. NAM has snow ripping across the entire state of NC and most of TN at this point. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 18z NAM quicker and stronger with the 925 transfer from AL to the coast vs 12z...really rooting for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: For those less educated (like me!) Could you explain what we're looking at here? Thanks! I'm not sure of the location, but would guess that it's close to Durham maybe, but that is a very long duration snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Rgem is well south. This storm's outcome is still TBD. Here's 1pm Thursday. NAM has snow ripping across the entire state of NC and most of TN at this point. This is the 18z CMC, which is a little different from the actual RGEM.. , in the same camp and similar but not the same... the RGEM just started running a little bit ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: I'm not sure of the location, but would guess that it's close to Durham maybe, but that is a very long duration snow storm It snows an inch an hour for 12 hours. I’m sold. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Not sure how this is going to play out , but Tim Buckley said the High Pressure on the models is being overdone.... Which if true, would mean cold air is being overdone...correct? Based on the last two very minor events, the high pressures outperformed and gave us some nice snow falling from the skies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, BullCityWx said: It snows an inch an hour for 12 hours. I’m sold. link that site QC. I always misplaced it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: This is the 18z CMC, which is a little different from the actual RGEM.. , in the same camp and similar but not the same... the RGEM just started running a little bit ago... Nah this is the Rgem. It's just a webpage where you can get the output a little faster than other sites. I've used it for years. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html If you go past 48hrs it reverts to the CMC map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, BullCityWx said: It snows an inch an hour for 12 hours. I’m sold. I bet you are! The NAM sure is consistent and shows no signs of caving. Could the NAM make it two in a row? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, SnowJoMoJo said: Hi All, Does anyone know what all factors are included in the "Snow Depth" plots on Pivotal? Is it based on Kuchera or straight 10:1? Consider compaction? Melting due to ground temps? Is this plot generally accurate? Thanks! There is a snow melt forecast variable, which I assume accounts for things like ground/air temperature, and that would be incorporated to calculate the snow depth. I also believe it accounts for snow density/compaction. I'm not sure of the overall accuracy. You can see all of the forecast variables here: https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/nam/nam.t00z.bgrdsf00.tm00.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoMoJo Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, NCBlizzard said: There is a snow melt forecast variable, which I assume accounts for things like ground/air temperature, and that would be incorporated to calculate the snow depth. I also believe it accounts for snow density/compaction. I'm not sure of the overall accuracy. You can see all of the forecast variables here: https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/nam/nam.t00z.bgrdsf00.tm00.shtml Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: Nah this is the Rgem. It's just a webpage where you can get the output a little faster than other sites. I've used it for years. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html If you go past 48hrs it reverts to the CMC map. It's a little more north than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorkchopper Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Sorry for the annoying question (I promise I'll go back to lurking like I have been for the past 9 years). What's the timeframe for this in the Durham area? I haven't seen it really posted anywhere, and if it has been, I overlooked it and I apolize. Thank y'all for being so informative and fun to read. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: Nah this is the Rgem. It's just a webpage where you can get the output a little faster than other sites. I've used it for years. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Correct on RGEM out to hr48, then it flips to the GEM Global after hr48....you can see the resolution change with the pixel size after hr48. Also, at the bottom, it has Forecast System R for RGEM out to hr48, then it flips to G for Global after hr48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, griteater said: Correct on RGEM out to hr48, then it flips to the GEM Global after hr48....you can see the resolution change with the pixel size after hr48. Also, at the bottom, it has Forecast System R for RGEM out to hr48, then it flips to G for Global after hr48 Well , the RGEM looks decent out to 48... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 The ICON just caved to the NAM. Focus on its precip not precip type as we know ICON is always toasty. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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