burrel2 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 ARW is way less amped compared to the 3k nam at 48hrs. As a result, it doesn't have the warm nose for the upstate and has some light snow breaking out around Anderson, SC with a sounding that's -1c or colder throughout the column and a wetbulb surface temp of 32 degrees. I hope it's right... Edit to add that the NMM variant is also way less amped. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Ha obviously skimpy on snow but it did bump a little north with precip. No comparison to GFS and NAM though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: That is one heck of a blizzard on the UKMET. How well does it handle moisture? Is it temps as the issue? Looks like it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 I love how two of our best globals diverge on the order of a foot of snowfall within 72 hours of the event in the year of our lord 2020. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 GEFS cut back againSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: ARW is way less amped compared to the 3k nam at 48hrs. As a result, it doesn't have the warm nose for the upstate and has some light snow breaking out around Anderson, SC with a sounding that's -1c or colder throughout the column and a wetbulb surface temp of 32 degrees. I hope it's right... I was about to mention that it looks less amped and suppressed. Notice too last few frames shows the coastal taking shape. East of Jacksonville Fl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: GEFS cut back again Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Seems a bit odd to see the ensembles dry out when the operational gets juicier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: GEFS cut back again Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Looks like an uptick in the mean actually, across the piedmont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Seems a bit odd to see the ensembles dry out when the operational gets juicier. And I think we’re getting a little past the point of usefulness with the ensembles. They generally aren’t given as much weight within 48 hours and we are just about to that point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Looks like an uptick in the mean actually, across the piedmontGot a pic of the mean?Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Berlin1926 said: A more reasonable, way-to-early forecast would be closer to an inch on grassy and elevated surfaces along and southeast of the I-95 corridor with a half inch or so measured up to about the Triangle region. * too They must not require English at State. But seriously, I’m not going to be too optimistic about this system IMBY. This is a hail Mary at this point and we know the odds of those working out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 ARW2 is also not as amped up as the 12k/3k NAM, but it's close. It doesn't seem to have the warm nose though. NE-GA and the Upstate look like they're about to cash in big time on the ARW2. here's a comparison showing the ARW2 vs the 3k NAM thermal profiles. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 12z GEFS snowfall mean vs. 6z: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 HREF Mean at the end of its run at hr48 (Thurs 7AM) HREF (High Resolution Ensemble Mean) Members 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, burrel2 said: ARW2 is also not as amped up as the 12k/3k NAM, but it's close. It doesn't seem to have the warm nose though. NE-GA and the Upstate look like they're about to cash in big time on the ARW2. here's a comparison showing the ARW2 vs the 3k NAM thermal profiles. Wow, that's the best look I've seen for our area. If the moisture feed is tracking ENE it could be epic, verbatim of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Guys the NWS will stay conservative as long as they possibly can, sometimes to their own peril. I had a forecast of 0 inches and R/S mix 12 hours before getting almost 6 inches a little over a week ago. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 42 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like it It would appear so but no surface temps were not an issue on the UKMET. It's the same issue it has had since the beginning and that's extremely suppressed moisture. Again, this is what the surface temps over NC are going to look like if there is no sufficient precip to drive down the temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 17 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Guys the NWS will stay conservative as long as they possibly can, sometimes to their own peril. I had a forecast of 0 inches and R/S mix 12 hours before getting almost 6 inches a little over a week ago. We are all hoping to be Nammed for sure LOL. Afternoon discussions will be crucial. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: It would appear so but no surface temps were not an issue on the UKMET. It's the same issue it has had since the beginning and that's extremely suppressed moisture. Again, this is what the surface temps over NC are going to look like if there is no sufficient precip to drive down the temp. It's exactly what we had last weekend in regards to temps. Had the moisture not gotten heavy and held the temps down it would have never have happened. I think I am probably out of the game on this one, but I haven't thrown in the towel yet. The NAM really didn't start nailing the system down from last weekend until 48 hours out and even then the actual totals ended up being better than advertised in many places. If I was in NC having seen the setup that we did here in GA last weekend, I would be very optimistic about Thursday / Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, HWY316wx said: It's exactly what we had last weekend in regards to temps. Had the moisture not gotten heavy and held the temps down it would have never have happened. I think I am probably out of the game on this one, but I haven't thrown in the towel yet. The NAM really didn't start nailing the system down from last weekend until 48 hours out and even then the actual totals ended up being better than advertised in many places. If I was in NC having seen the setup that we did here in GA last weekend, I would be very optimistic about Thursday / Friday. Yep, it was really the last 24-36 hours of short term modeling that nailed the forecast then. And thus why the NWS was hesitant to believe it because the global models were hesitant to follow suit until inside 12-24hrs. I was feeling very confident for this one but trends on the GFS and NAM have scared me because of ptype issues. But if they are a little over amped right now then I think my area will end up in a fairly decent spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 That's all good and great but you have to remember not all storms trend like the last few with more snow/precip. We can't just assume it will follow the last few threats. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Euro looks like a small step in the right direction 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Euro out to 63...it's another weak and suppressed run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: That's all good and great but you have to remember not all storms trend like the last few with more snow/precip. We can't just assume it will follow the last few threats. That wasn't really my point. Just saying that in this situation where the globals are all over the place and the short term guidance like the NAM still making large run to run shifts, we shouldn't really expect a confident settled forecast until potentially a very short lead time. Eventually the data will coalesce, but I'm not predicting which way that will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 The Euro looks a smidge better for SW NC and worst for eastern and central NC. Suppression city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 I've noticed some of the Mets around here are saying the EURO is to dry and isn't handling the storm well but they are also skeptical about the NAM. So a blend would be a good start I guess for now until we get closer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 I think I'll be lucky to see some flakes in this one. Good luck to those in NC/SC/NGA mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 NWS RAH and local mets are still leaning toward the Euro... The fact that it still isn't showing much is concerning to me. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: NWS RAH and local mets are still leaning toward the Euro... The fact that it still isn't showing much is concerning to me. The opposite up this way... Mets aren't agreeing with the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 WPC Probabilistic Guidance also decreased across NC. Probably because of lower QPF on recent model runs and EURO run. Still bullseyes central/eastern NC but percentages went down 10-20%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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