buckeyefan1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 GFS hr78 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, BullCityWx said: It’s like clockwork aint it. just doubled my QPF Sure is. We’ve seen it for years now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Greenville, NC with a foot --- winner, winner, chicken dinner Bought time....been a long long time since we had anything like that at least 10yrs.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Welcome, from Chesapeake, VA. At this point in time I'm very happy to see the bulls eye 100-200 miles to my south. :-) 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 I don't want to throw cold water on this - I want snow as much as anyone, but... RAH is very skeptical. Of course, this was posted before 5AM, but how much has changed to challenge their logic? While many models continue to indicate the possibility of some rather impressive snowfall accumulations, still thinking accumulations and overall impacts will remain far less than the numbers that the raw model solutions keep pushing out. Several limiting factors will be at work, including: (1.) Persistent above freezing surface temperatures that will help temper/melt the majority of the snowfall. (2.) 10:1 snow to liquid ratios are not likely in an event like this, expect closer to 5:1 or even less than that. (3.) The parent high remains in an unfavorable climatological location for delivery of efficient cold air. While there is some indication that the high may break off to our north becoming a bit more favorable, thinking that we`ll need to rely on a stronger than anticipated bombing coastal low to truly get the cold air in place in-time for a significant snowfall event. Another possibility would be the presence of lower than anticipated surface dewpoints in place Thursday afternoon and evening across central NC, which will promote a more lucrative wet-bulb effect. A more reasonable, way-to-early forecast would be closer to an inch on grassy and elevated surfaces along and southeast of the I-95 corridor with a half inch or so measured up to about the Triangle region. Elsewhere an exciting trace amount would be prevalent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Let's see how the 12z CMC looks. The 12z NAM and 12z GFS continue to trend in a good direction... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Gfs looks pretty blah for foothills and western Piedmont with downsloping 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said: While many models continue to indicate the possibility of some rather impressive snowfall accumulations, still thinking accumulations and overall impacts will remain far less than the numbers that the raw model solutions keep pushing out. Several limiting factors will be at work, including: (1.) Persistent above freezing surface temperatures that will help temper/melt the majority of the snowfall. (2.) 10:1 snow to liquid ratios are not likely in an event like this, expect closer to 5:1 or even less than that. (3.) The parent high remains in an unfavorable climatological location for delivery of efficient cold air. While there is some indication that the high may break off to our north becoming a bit more favorable, thinking that we`ll need to rely on a stronger than anticipated bombing coastal low to truly get the cold air in place in-time for a significant snowfall event. Another possibility would be the presence of lower than anticipated surface dewpoints in place Thursday afternoon and evening across central NC, which will promote a more lucrative wet-bulb effect. A more reasonable, way-to-early forecast would be closer to an inch on grassy and elevated surfaces along and southeast of the I-95 corridor with a half inch or so measured up to about the Triangle region. Elsewhere an exciting trace amount would be prevalent. An "exciting" trace! What we all hope to see. You have to love the dark humor of some mets who write these AFDs. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Gfs looks pretty blah for foothills and western Piedmont with downsloping Dude , can u be positive? Lol , the 12z GFS trended northwest with the precip... the details still have plenty of time to iron out. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Kinda embarrassing that RAH still has 20% chance of precip for my location 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Dude , can u be positive? Lol , the 12z GFS trended northwest with the precip... the details still have plenty of time to iron out. Which puts his area with downsloping and he gets slotted. What is good for some, will also be bad for others. Consider the area where others are posting before replying to individual backyard statements. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, buckeyefan1 said: Which puts his area with downsloping and he gets slotted. What is good for some, will also be bad for others. Consider the area where others are posting before replying to individual backyard statements. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBeach Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 19 minutes ago, Avid6eek said: Welcome, from Chesapeake, VA. At this point in time I'm very happy to see the bulls eye 100-200 miles to my south. :-) Definitely! Something finally close enough to chase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Kinda embarrassing that RAH still has 20% chance of precip for my location RAH has always played it conservative. It’s always better to see the snow trending upwards, than retracting a premature statement. We really need the dang Euro to come on board at the 12z. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 12z CMC took a step back.... doesnt look near as good as 0z 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 So we traded the Canadian for the GFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: So we traded the Canadian for the GFS. Similar to ECMWF. Shocker there. Not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z CMC took a step back.... doesnt look near as good as 0z The RDPS is usually a precursor of what the Canadian will show. Regardless Eastrrn nc looks to be in good shape for accumulating snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 So are the globals really that important right now? Just curious of y'alls thoughts .. or should we focus more on short range 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: So are the globals really that important right now? Just curious of y'alls thoughts .. or should we focus more on short range I mean big picture the Euro is the most skilled model at every time frame. To say it's not important would be silly. It's true though it hasn't done particularly well forecasting sensible weather in our region with this pattern lately. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 For all of its fallacies, I have a hard time seeing the GFS just collapse and look like the current Euro come go time based on how it is just consistently inching north....the Euro just has to come north with precip here soon. Not to mention the NAM is obviously north as well 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: So are the globals really that important right now? Just curious of y'alls thoughts .. or should we focus more on short range Yes, globals are always important, especially now, as there are still not enough short term modeling to go by at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 RAH is very conservative. WRAL has also moved away from posting "snow totals" and moved toward just showing "probabilities." They keep showing "probability of 1 inch" maps. The maps appear to be pretty much identical to euro model and wpc guidance. Which currently only shows about 20-30% chance of 1". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Here's the 12z UKMet at hr48 at 500mb. Just comparing the trajectory of the height lines with the GFS, it matches up quite well. The UKMet has been super suppressed all along, but the map argues that precip will be north this run - precip will be out on Pivotal later 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Here's the 12z UKMet at hr48 at 500mb. Just comparing the trajectory of the height lines with the GFS, it matches up quite well. The UKMet has been super suppressed all along, but the map argues that precip will be north this run - precip will be out on Pivotal later Already out on PW... congrats not many 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Are the temp trends we have today a factor for Thursday? Cause TWC went with a high of 64, NWS 67, but it is only 56 here with a light rain. Will underbusting our highs now pay off later? Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: Are the temp trends we have today a factor for Thursday? Cause TWC went with a high of 64, NWS 67, but it is only 56 here with a light rain. Will underbusting our highs now lay off later? Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk No 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, yoda said: That is one heck of a blizzard on the UKMET. How well does it handle moisture? Is it temps as the issue? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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