HKY_WX Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Latest RDU totals via Kuchera Method: 15z HRR = 2.2 12zGFS = 1.8 12zNAM = 3.5 12z RDPS = 5.9 Average = 3.3 inches at RDU 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, HKY_WX said: Latest RDU totals via Kuchera Method: 15z HRR = 2.2 12zGFS = 1.8 12zNAM = 3.5 RDPS = 5.9 Average = 3.3 inches at RDU That seems the most likely, since we will need to waste QPF for a change over to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 45 minutes ago, tazaroo said: of course I'm on vacation in Cancun and I'm following the weather anyway. Crazy I know. I live in Ramseur and still wanting snow when I'm not even there. We’re in Turks and Caicos but I’m following too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: That seems the most likely, since we will need to waste QPF for a change over to snow. I think the only way we get to the RDPS or higher is if we find ourselves in this banding that will setup tonight. It will likely setup east of Raleigh, but if it were to setup over us, that could be a game changers. This is all due to the PJ wave diving in behind, giving some last minute life to the SLP/atlantic fetch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Latest RDU totals via Kuchera Method: 15z HRR = 2.2 12zGFS = 1.8 12zNAM = 3.5 12z RDPS = 5.9 Average = 3.3 inches at RDU Any thoughts on the beefing up of totals in the southern coastal plain last few runs? Between Fayetteville and New Bern, totals have doubled on many of the models in the past 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, HKY_WX said: I think the only way we get to the RDPS or higher is if we find ourselves in this banding that will setup tonight. It will likely setup east of Raleigh, but if it were to setup over us, that could be a game changers. This is all due to the PJ wave diving in behind, giving some last minute life to the SLP/atlantic fetch. Thanks for the information. I am south of Garner, near Clayton. Models appear to have RDU area in at least 3 inches, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: Any thoughts on the beefing up of totals in the southern coastal plain last few runs? Between Fayetteville and New Bern, totals have doubled on many of the models in the past 6 hours. I do think there will be some banding setting up after 7PM over the eastern piedmont/coastal plain. I'm just not sure if this sets up over Fayetteville or closer to the Rocky Mount/Greenville area. Or potentially further north towards Elizabeth City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 43 minutes ago, jjwxman said: I have seen that as well. It's a long shot, but If it does happen the ratios would be much higher then as well. It's a long shot for sure and the area that would be affected extremely small geographically, but it could very well be the highlight of this event for some if it does in fact materialize with gusty winds and the higher ratios at the time it moves through. The latest run of the Canadian has a little over an inch of snow falling in the Greensboro area between 1am and 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Radar is starting to fill the dry slot (albeit slowly). I think we can definitely pull off 1-2", 3" if the costal component gets going early enough 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 I don't get some of the wailing and gnashing of teeth. Radar returns west all the way into Ms. look pretty robust. I suppose the orientation and movement could result in some down-sloping. But I am just glad to have something to track after this crappy winter. Two weeks ago at this time we were hunkered down in the Emergency Operations Center with an EF2 tornado on the ground in the southern part of the county headed our way. It's sleeting outside now. Quite a difference. No complaints here......yet 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, Upstate Tiger said: I don't get some of the wailing and gnashing of teeth. Radar returns west all the way into Ms. look pretty robust. I suppose the orientation and movement could result in some down-sloping. But I am just glad to have something to track after this crappy winter. Two weeks ago at this time we were hunkered down in the Emergency Operations Center with an EF2 tornado on the ground in the southern part of the county headed our way. It's sleeting outside now. Quite a difference. No complaints here......yet Yeah I don't get the lack of moisture complaints. I haven't seen any sleet, and cold is certainly an issue, but there's plenty of precip. For those lucky enough to have the cold, you'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Yeah I don't get the lack of moisture complaints. I haven't seen any sleet, and cold is certainly an issue, but there's plenty of precip. For those lucky enough to have the cold, you'll be fine. I think it's mainly driven by watching the NAM nail us run after run. Did a lot to raise expectations. The reality is this has looked like a 1-3" event with some upside potential since Tuesday morning 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, olafminesaw said: I think it's mainly driven by watching the NAM nail us run after run. Did a lot to raise expectations. The reality is this has looked like a 1-3" event with some upside potential since Tuesday morning I'm certainly no expert, but at this point, isn't what is falling out of the sky and the radar more of an indicator than the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I think it's mainly driven by watching the NAM nail us run after run. Did a lot to raise expectations. The reality is this has looked like a 1-3" event with some upside potential since Tuesday morning EXACTLY. My only disappointment was this may not turn into the higher end weenie storm. This is still going to be a good snow for much of the state and I think every county will see flakes. That's pretty rare! If we get 2" in Raleigh I'll be happy. 4" and I'll be ecstatic. Those are my thresholds here for the storm. I think everything is on track for the forecast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 First precip just began here in Holly Springs and it started as sleet with no rain mixed in. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just saw a video from one of the high rise buildings in Atlanta with flakes mixed in to the rain. Pretty cool, but also kind of a kick in the face sitting here in the Mtns watching it rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 the new hrrr is now showing that band of snow now across the southern upstate/midlands. I find this rather impressive given it's surface warm bias which skews against it's snow forecasts. Only reason this might work out is flow in the mid levels is out of the northeast instead of north or northwest..in which case there would be no chance at all. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan63 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Sleeting in Garner! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 HRRR really ramping up snowfall in SENC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flair_2000 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: HRRR really ramping up snowfall in SENC: That's gotta be painful to see for the folks in the downslope screw zone. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwertyu Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, flair_2000 said: That's gotta be painful to see for the folks in the downslope screw zone. It is, trust me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 HRRR wants to break that Columbia streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 31 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Just saw a video from one of the high rise buildings in Atlanta with flakes mixed in to the rain. Pretty cool, but also kind of a kick in the face sitting here in the Mtns watching it rain lol just saw on channel 5 some flakes mixing in with the rain there. not too surprising given the amount of bright banding. No flakes here even though i'm under it....but the drops have that "slop" sound to them. I do wonder if there could be a brief surprise changeover or good mixing north of atlanta up near gainesville. Some 50 dbz showing up on composite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 26 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: HRRR wants to break that Columbia streak. Looks to be a good banding per the HRRR, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 imo, the northern upstate may wind up doing as well as many in Eastern NC with this storm. Looks like we can pick up 1/2 to 3/4 of liquid over the next 4 hours and should be changing to snow with surface temps crashing in the next hour. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, burrel2 said: imo, the northern upstate may wind up doing as well as many in Eastern NC with this storm. Looks like we can pick up 1/2 to 3/4 of liquid over the next 4 hours and should be changing to snow with surface temps crashing in the next hour. That's mighty optimistic. Not sure I agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: imo, the northern upstate may wind up doing as well as many in Eastern NC with this storm. Looks like we can pick up 1/2 to 3/4 of liquid over the next 4 hours and should be changing to snow with surface temps crashing in the next hour. Ive dropped 6 in the last hour. Down to 37.6 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Can someone post the 17z HRRR map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: imo, the northern upstate may wind up doing as well as many in Eastern NC with this storm. Looks like we can pick up 1/2 to 3/4 of liquid over the next 4 hours and should be changing to snow with surface temps crashing in the next hour. I'm not sure where you're going to manufacture crashing surface temps down there but good luck! Pays to be optimistic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 It’s been 779 days since the last flake fell in myrtle beach. HRRR looks like I’m gonna be up with the kids hoping to see some flakes falling around 5am. Would be their first time seeing snow that they are old enough to remember, even if it doesn’t stick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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