LithiaWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 16 minutes ago, eyewall said: 6z 3km NAM (10:1). Kuchera is slightly higher but not by much. Sw NC mtns going to get hammered too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, FLweather said: Wow radar looks impressive. Good luck guys and gals. Considering how crappy this winter has been. Rooting for a over preformer. so far QPF doesn't appear to be an issue. We just have to watch those temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Looks probable to me. Battle lines in the usual spots of course. I'll bet somewhere along 74 overperforms on this. In about an hour they line up to cliffs as soon as the temp doesn't drop as fast they expect due to evap-cooling . And I got battle scars! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 34 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: N Greenville and Spartanburg counties under WWA now! Fake news! Nothing for Spartanburg county at all. Greenville and Pickens mointains have been added. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 38 degrees and heavy overcast in West Durham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, eyewall said: so far QPF doesn't appear to be an issue. We just have to watch those temps. I hope we’re starting off today right with this blanket of clouds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcblimp95 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Interesting to note the HRRR initialized its 11Z run with the 850 line running through Cornelius, yet the SPC observed 850 line is almost all the way to Monroe. The short range stuff is not going so hot. This is why model watching at this point is a no go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I hope we’re starting off today right with this blanket of clouds. I just wish we were starting off today with a lower temperature/DP. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summey Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, superjames1992 said: I just wish we were starting off today with a lower temperature/DP. Yep, where is the cold coming from? Doesn’t seem like evaporative cooling has low enough DP to get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 40/28 here.... wet bulb 36 here is Mooresville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 44 minutes ago, burgertime said: Looks probable to me. Battle lines in the usual spots of course. I'll bet somewhere along 74 overperforms on this. In about an hour they line up to cliffs as soon as the temp doesn't drop as fast they expect due to evap-cooling . Weenies never change Nice to see you drop by. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 19 minutes ago, mcblimp95 said: Interesting to note the HRRR initialized its 11Z run with the 850 line running through Cornelius, yet the SPC observed 850 line is almost all the way to Monroe. The short range stuff is not going so hot. This is why model watching at this point is a no go. I'd like to throw the Hrrrr out, but it's hard to do. It still eventually gets to snow but it takes a long time. Hopefully, it's wrong. I assume it's solely due to the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwp1023 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 30 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I hope we’re starting off today right with this blanket of clouds. I am in Bahama and its 38 as well. Nice thick clouds hopefully keep temps as low as possible before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 hours ago, cwick20 said: Burrel2 are you really buying this? I believe the warm bubble that often effects eastern Oconee County and western Pickens County will rear its ugly head for this event. I am in Walhalla, about 8 miles from Oconee Nuclear Station and the soundings are razor thin at best. I exppect a sloppy mess at best and plain rain at worst. Looking at the soundings the slightest tick up in temps may allow us to have some sleet mixed but that may be it I'm not buying it or discounting it. You can already see the R/S line on the CC radar saggingn south on the NC/SC border. I do believe it will be snow for the northern half of Oconee/Pickens/Greenville when the heavy rates get here. I am not certain if our surface temps will be cold enough for it to stick, but if we get 2 inch per hour rate this afternoon that will stick regardless of surface temps.(and crash surface temps to 32/33 even if they're at 40 before the rates pick up.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Don't think I have ever seen the HRRR this warm with no snow at all compared to other models. It isn't budging either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 NWS in MHX playing up the 264 corridor..... .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As of 320 AM Thurs...Winter Storm Warnings are now in effect for much of the area, with Winter Weather Advisories continuing for the rest of Eastern NC except for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, as confidence has increased on a more widespread moderate snow event with snow totals of 4-6 inches expected generally north of the Neuse River and then spreading east to the Alligator River. With some mesoscale banding expected to develop in this area, locally heavier snow amounts of 6-10 inches are possible. Further to the south and east, initially warm temps both aloft and at the surface will limit snow totals as the changeover to snow will be delayed until 10 pm or midnight (There could be a few hour period of sleet along and south of US 70 early tonight). Still amounts of 1-2 inches are expected with some locally higher amounts of 2-4 inches possible. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 27 minutes ago, Summey said: Yep, where is the cold coming from? Doesn’t seem like evaporative cooling has low enough DP to get the job done. Good news is RDUs dewpoint has dropped 5 degrees since 3AM. 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, burgertime said: Looks probable to me. Battle lines in the usual spots of course. I'll bet somewhere along 74 overperforms on this. In about an hour they line up to cliffs as soon as the temp doesn't drop as fast they expect due to evap-cooling . I'll take that I'm right on Highway 74 and Highway 1 in Rockingham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwp1023 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 dewpoint has dropped 2 more degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Webcams I'll also post in the OBS thread, but it is really snowing good in some of the Smokey Mtn locations and also at Sapphire Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Steady snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Some good news. 06z 3km NAM is too far north with the warm nose. It had it all the way up to near asheville at 10am . CC radar comfirms it's already crossing the NC/SC border and heading south. 12zz 3km NAM has fixed this issue, shows the warm nose much further south at 10am. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Nam cut back again on totals.. again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billypg70 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Some good news. 06z 3km NAM is too far north with the warm nose. It had it all the way up to near asheville at 10am . CC radar comfirms it's already crossing the NC/SC border and heading south. 12zz 3km NAM has fixed this issue, shows the warm nose much further south at 10am. Someone just posted snowing steadily at lake Toxaway just on the otherside of the border. Looks to heading south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Nam cut back again on totals.. again. It was over amping things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 NAM continues to be drier W and SW of Raleigh with every run. If you're not in the NE quadrant of NC or the mountains anything that sticks to the ground should be considered a victory. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Nam cut back again on totals.. again. Doubles our yearly total here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Nam cut back again on totals.. again. I think that is the most accurate snow map for this event I've seen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Some good news. 06z 3km NAM is too far north with the warm nose. It had it all the way up to near asheville at 10am . CC radar comfirms it's already crossing the NC/SC border and heading south. 12zz 3km NAM has fixed this issue, shows the warm nose much further south at 10am. Yes but we just got completely blanked in the upstate. Absolutely no accumulation along 85. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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