palmettoweather Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 On 2/20/2020 at 2:14 AM, Extreme NEGA said: Hug the HRW-ARW model Expand It folded on NE GA and the Upstate for the most part as well, moving toward the warm nose that NAM sniffed out way before. I was looking too, but alas, here's to a nowcast miracle in GA and Upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 what exactly are we whining about again? 5 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Don’t forget that just because five inches fall doesn’t mean that five inches stick. I’m going with 1.5” measurable snow around GSO, 2.5” around RDU, and 0.5” around CLT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 On 2/20/2020 at 2:04 AM, PackGrad05 said: The NAM is fine. If anything, it is more in line with the realistic expectations of the other models and forecasts. Expand Yeah, it shows like 3/4ths of an inch liquid equivalent for RDU, pretty much all snow. It’s great for C/E NC, so I’m not sure why a few were melting down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Yeah, the NAM twins are not really much different, does more to confirm 2-4" is quite attainable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 I wouldn't worry about SREF means at this point. Other models still look good and we're to the point to almost quit looking at those big models and focus on the radar and satellite images as the storm is coming together. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 On 2/20/2020 at 2:30 AM, superjames1992 said: Yeah, it shows like 3/4ths of an inch liquid equivalent for RDU, pretty much all snow. It’s great for C/E NC, so I’m not sure why a few were melting down. Expand Same folks that have been melting down with every run. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 On 2/20/2020 at 2:27 AM, BullCityWx said: what exactly are we whining about again? Expand Looking solid out your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 On 2/20/2020 at 2:31 AM, strongwxnc said: Looking solid out your way. Expand I feel pretty good! I also feel confident that every precip event for a month has over performed. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted February 20, 2020 Author Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 So are we still thinking that their will be an expansive amount of moisture more northwest than what is being modeled? Doesnt that happen alot on these similar systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 On 2/20/2020 at 2:32 AM, BullCityWx said: I feel pretty good! I also feel confident that every precip event for a month has over performed. Expand You should. Heres to an over performer back west on 74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Don't kill the messenger. Just stating the facts. This was the worst SREF and NAM twin run for areas west of 77 since Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 On 2/20/2020 at 2:27 AM, BullCityWx said: what exactly are we whining about again? Expand Rocky Mount gets more than us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 On 2/20/2020 at 2:36 AM, YetAnotherRDUGuy said: Rocky Mount gets more than us. Expand That used to be one of @WidreMann rules 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 On 2/20/2020 at 2:37 AM, BullCityWx said: That used to be one of @WidreMann rules Expand WidreMann used to swear Rocky Mount was the snow capital of the east coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Every storm rain and snow this year has overperformed why would this one not? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 On 2/20/2020 at 2:32 AM, BullCityWx said: I feel pretty good! I also feel confident that every precip event for a month has over performed. Expand Yes, I’m hoping we see that theme of the winter continue. Although given we're dealing with snow now, we’ll probably end up underperforming in liquid equivalent now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 On 2/20/2020 at 2:33 AM, Tar Heel Snow said: Expand HRRR QPF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 On 2/20/2020 at 2:39 AM, CntrTim85 said: Still happy here in Virginia Beach! Expand I'll take that map for GA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 On 2/20/2020 at 2:41 AM, wncsnow said: HRRR QPF Expand A MET said it never develops a low off the coast and therefore too dry and too warm. I am not sure if that is entirely the case or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 On 2/20/2020 at 2:41 AM, wncsnow said: HRRR QPF Expand The current radar already looks better than that! Hrrr sucks, what’s the RAP show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Only time will tell if it's significant but my dew point is falling around 4 hours ahead of my hourly forecast from the NWS. Just hit 32 and NWS didn't have it that low until 2am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Don't trust the HRRR this far out. I only use it for simulated radar during the event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 The HRW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 On 2/20/2020 at 2:45 AM, mackerel_sky said: The current radar already looks better than that! Hrrr sucks, what’s the RAP show? Expand Ask and ye shall receive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 On 2/20/2020 at 2:39 AM, CntrTim85 said: Still happy here in Virginia Beach! Expand You’ll probably end up with about 3” inland and 0.5” on the beach. Still more than Philly this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 On 2/20/2020 at 2:46 AM, PackGrad05 said: Don't trust the HRRR this far out. I only use it for simulated radar during the event. Expand HRRR isn't far out for my back yard. It shows no precip until 11am while the NAM has .25 inches falling here by 10am. That's only a 15'ish hour lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 On 2/20/2020 at 2:48 AM, burrel2 said: HRRR isn't far out for my back yard. It shows no precip until 11am while the NAM has .25 inches falling here by 10am. That's only a 15'ish hour lead time. Expand Are these the same models, short range, that were showing mid 50s highs in RAH tomorrow! Trust them 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Heard y’all like snow maps here’s what I made for my friends on Facebook 5 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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