burrel2 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, ATLMet84 said: So, I assume that is why us in N GA aren't expecting much of anything. Horrible boundary layer without CAD, just relying on cold from the NW. Well there's several things working against N GA. For one, the 800mb temperature gradient is laid out East to West, which cuts off Georgia's chances at snow before lunch other than the top row of counties. Also the precip moves through Georgia earlier... before the 800mb temperature gradient begins to sag south much. Secondly, the CAD didn't have time to drive much cold/dry air at the 900-950mb level in to Georgia before the storm hits. These layers improve as you go east in to SC/NC,(and later arrival of precip helps). This isn't to say that Northeastern Georgia is out of the running for accumulations, Especially if you have some elevation in the NE Ga mountains. They are actually in a pretty good spot, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, burrel2 said: The 21z RAP was not kind to the NC foothills. This is through 7am Friday. I think it’s a little far out to be using the RAP, TBH, but maybe I’m wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLMet84 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: Well there's several things working against N GA. For one, the 800mb temperature gradient is laid out East to West, which cuts off Georgia's chances at snow before lunch other than the top row of counties. Also the precip moves through Georgia earlier... before the 800mb temperature gradient begins to sag south much. Secondly, the CAD didn't have time to drive much cold/dry air at the 900-950mb level in to Georgia before the storm hits. These layers improve as you go east in to SC/NC,(and later arrival of precip helps). This isn't to say that Northeastern Georgia is out of the running for accumulations, Especially if you have some elevation in the NE Ga mountains. They are actually in a pretty good spot, imo. Well, I know that SnowDawg in Rabun County at 2400' stands the best chance of anyone from GA on these boards. Maybe he will get another covering of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, burrel2 said: The 21z RAP was not kind to the NC foothills. This is through 7am Friday. Lived in the foothills my entire life and I’ve never seen an overrunning setup skimp on the foothills - but I’ve seen plenty of models say it would. Not discounting the guidance, but there hasn’t been a single simulated radar that doesn’t show heavy banding impacting at least half of the foothill counties. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, ATLMet84 said: Well, I know that SnowDawg in Rabun County at 2400' stands the best chance of anyone from GA on these boards. Maybe he will get another covering of snow. That's the hope. Mid level warm noses scare me though because they are rarely modeled very well. I've had plenty a disappointing heavy sleet storms before. HRRR and WRF giving me hope though pushing that rain snow line south pretty fast tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 22 minutes ago, burrel2 said: 21z RAP just came out and it's all snow for the northern upstate,(assuming low levels aren't as warm as depicted.) In fact, it's not even isothermal at my house. I've got a -1C buffer through the column. How is rap with 850s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLMet84 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: That's the hope. Mid level warm noses scare me though because they are rarely modeled very well. I've had plenty a disappointing heavy sleet storms before. HRRR and WRF giving me hope though pushing that rain snow line south pretty fast tomorrow morning. I'll take your sleet and leave you with the snow lol. Just give me something besides rain lol. Even if it doesn't accumulate, I'd rather see sleet bouncing everywhere and melting than just stupid rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Where’s big frosty? He’s the only one asking about his .25 inch of qpf, and sweating about totals, and always ending up with a foot! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 A bump northwest with the precip on the 18z GFS....this is what models typically do close to go time with Miller A's - increase the precip on the NW side 7 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 ABC11 (WTVD) says the southern part of central NC is the wildcard depending on how fast it changes over from rain/mix to snow. The comment was that it could be a bit more accumulation than shown because the timing in that area is hard to nail down and will have plenty of moisture on hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, griteater said: A bump northwest with the precip on the 18z GFS....this is what models typically do close to go time with Miller A's - increase the precip on the NW side That's much better. Snow map was anemic, but it should look pretty coming down. The HrrrrRrRrr isn't quite as good, I don't think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: That's much better. Snow map was anemic, but it should look pretty coming down. The HrrrrRrRrr isn't quite as good, I don't think. Been wondering where the hell you’ve been 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: Been wondering where the hell you’ve been hangin out with the weenies 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Most clear skies here.. just a handful of high cirrus clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 Before we get into too much now casting and we get into the observation part of this storm, I want to thank everyone for making this a truly fun and educational track. After a really tough winter, this storm and its thread have reminded me why I came into this community in the first place. It’s always great to go through the ups and downs with you all, even more so after starting my first thread! To the mets and experts, thank you for being clear, patient, and generous with your knowledge. It’s intentional, thoughtful, and informative. To the mods, thanks for keeping this board a positive place for all to enjoy and learn. To the Macks of the world (you all know who you are), thanks for keeping things light and fun! And to everyone, may your snow totals resemble clown maps and may the warm noses stay to your south. As always, there will be lessons to learn when it’s all over, but wishing everyone the best! You all make this community special, and I’m grateful for it. (Mods, I apologize, I know this should be in banter!) 20 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I've been impressed with how consistent the NAM has been with modeled precip. Even during the big storm in Dec 18, it had various runs where it was splotchy here and there with the QPF output....not this time. I'd expect the radar to look good and consistent tomorrow. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 We need some of the lower dew points to keep filtering down into central NC. DPs still in 30s Raleigh and south, but 20s to even single digit DPs off to the NW of there. That is the critical piece I will be watching to get an idea of how well the cold air is working in. Obviously not too far to our NW 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Big shift south with the R/S line on the latest Hrrr... caveat, above this line isn't snow if your low level temps are too warm for it to reach the ground. Also it's even slower with precip arrival. Valid 10am tomorrow morning Sounding is for Clemson, SC at 10am. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, Wow said: Most clear skies here.. just a handful of high cirrus clouds Yep. Dropped from 52 to 48 here in Cherryville since 430 PM, mostly clear now, and stiff NE wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Yep. Dropped from 52 to 48 here in Cherryville since 430 PM, mostly clear now, and stiff NE wind. Yes. That NE wind has been strong this afternoon over in Rutherfordton. I’m at 49/31 I started an obs thread! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 13 minutes ago, ragtop50 said: We need some of the lower dew points to keep filtering down into central NC. DPs still in 30s Raleigh and south, but 20s to even single digit DPs off to the NW of there. That is the critical piece I will be watching to get an idea of how well the cold air is working in. Obviously not too far to our NW Good observation. Hickory has a DP of 22 while KCLT has a DP of 34 as of an hour ago. Hope to see that DP drop some more before the precip starts flowing in tomorrow morning. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billypg70 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 hour ago, griteater said: The teleconnections don't look good for this storm let me tell ya We live in the South East. I have always believed that more than half of our snow storms are usually thread the needle events. The teleconnections do matter but it snows in bad patterns, This last decade proves as much. BTW Grit Thank you for all ur valuable input on this board. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 33 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Been wondering where the hell you’ve been I posted earlier. I honestly wasn't too keen on this one until yesterday. Been some kind of a boring winter so far. Maybe this turns the tide. LR stuff is dropping in the cold to end the season, so maybe we get another shot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 13 minutes ago, Tarheel17 said: Good observation. Hickory has a DP of 22 while KCLT has a DP of 34 as of an hour ago. Hope to see that DP drop some more before the precip starts flowing in tomorrow morning. It will be interesting to watch those actual dew points in comparison to where the NAM says they would be. They look to be ahead of schedule and lower than predicted off to the NW. Mt Airy shows a dew point of 11 as of last report on NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2nd report from TX, I can tell you this is an over performer down here. It has rained like cats and dogs all day. QPF will NOT be the issue back home tomorrow unless we see convection fire up to the south. I think someone mentioned that possibility earlier in the thread. If you guys find the cold, I'm sending the liquid your way. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I've been impressed with how consistent the NAM has been with modeled precip. Even during the big storm in Dec 18, it had various runs where it was splotchy here and there with the QPF output....not this time. I'd expect the radar to look good and consistent tomorrow.It hasn’t budged, a really remarkable performance that should be seared into the mind of any met going forward. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Most of you probably know but here is a link to current temps and dew points for NOrth Carolina https://climate.ncsu.edu/map/ mods let me know if I need to move to OBS thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 GEFS ensemble members took a large tick up at 18z wowzers. https://ibb.co/4JHKbNG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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