NorthHillsWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I find it kinda odd the NE part of that advisory is not a WSW. I think they meet criteria easily. For the Triangle, I agree with the WWA, but it would not surprise me to hit WSW type snows anywhere in that advisory area really. The spread is definitely high with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, sarcean said: GSP is being very conservative...when the high amount (1 in 10 chance is only 1" still for Charlotte That’s a lot bolder than the morning update this AM, which had zero! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duncana Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Whats everyone's thoughts about the Morganton-Hickory NC area? Think we will meet warning criteria? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 26 minutes ago, ThePackBacker said: I came back to American for this call...a dusting to 2"! Where's ColdRain...can he not bring the smack down on this. :-) This setup is a little different than most with the southsinking/progressive HP. Ha, yeah the south sinking cold air right as the precip maximizes is indeed unusual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, jjwxman said: The NWS RAH just pulled the trigger on WWA's for most of their counties. Wow. Not sure how I timed that just right. lol I missed Davidson and Forsyth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Another uptick in SREF 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Big jump north (maybe 75-100 miles??)between the 12z and 18z HRRR . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I find it kinda odd the NE part of that advisory is not a WSW. I think they meet criteria easily. For the Triangle, I agree with the WWA, but it would not surprise me to hit WSW type snows anywhere in that advisory area really. The spread is definitely high with this storm Agreed. I have a theory they're just leaning conservative, and will likely upgrade to WSW's in the NE part later tonight or early AM tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 The HRRR, somehow, warms us up to near 50 degrees tomorrow despite 100% cloud cover. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 My local forecast on TWC app has less than an inch for tomorrow this morning, now says 1-3”! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: The HRRR, somehow, warms us up to near 50 degrees tomorrow despite 100% cloud cover. Even the mountains outside of 5000'+ are above freezing, with spots close to 45 lol. odd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 The HRRR is mostly useless outside 12 hrs. Even then it runs warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: I find it kinda odd the NE part of that advisory is not a WSW. I think they meet criteria easily. For the Triangle, I agree with the WWA, but it would not surprise me to hit WSW type snows anywhere in that advisory area really. The spread is definitely high with this storm 5 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: The HRRR, somehow, warms us up to near 50 degrees tomorrow despite 100% cloud cover. That's a bit concerning. The snow finally breaks out over far NE NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Wakefield just pushed a Winter Storm Watch out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Another uptick in SREF I've always hated the SREF but if there was ever a time I'm pulling for it then it's right now with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: My local forecast on TWC app has less than an inch for tomorrow this morning, now says 1-3”! With that much snow they must be forecasting you to stay below 35 tomorrow for a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Me likey the 18z HRRR... keeps the warm nose at i-85 in SC for the duration of the storm. Assuming it's surface temps are off, it's all snow for the northern upstate... 2-4 inches assumig its cold enough to stick. Precip looks anemic for the piedmont of NC though. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, chris624wx said: Wakefield just pushed a Winter Storm Watch out I don't know what their Warning criteria is but the text in the watch area sounds like they are expecting 2-3 in of snow which is in line with the WWA for the Raleigh forecast area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Here is 1pm tomorrow. That bright band denotes partially melted snowflakes at the radar beam level, hence it's a good indicator of where the rain/snow line will be. (assuming the boundary layer isn't too warm). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, burrel2 said: Me likey the 18z HRRR... keeps the warm nose at i-85 in SC for the duration of the storm. Assuming it's surface temps are off, it's all snow for the northern upstate... 2-4 inches assumig its cold enough to stick. Precip looks anemic for the piedmont of NC though. Yep, I chose to just ignore the surface and 925 temps cause physics says that if it's that cold at 850 with heavy precip it isn't suddenly warming in the layers below it. It did the same with the previous storm. Had the surface way too warm by as much 5-10 degrees. Showed even the Mtns changing to rain, when as we know the exact opposite happened with snow making it as far south as Atlanta and Athens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: I don't know what their Warning criteria is but the text in the watch area sounds like they are expecting 2-3 in of snow which is in line with the WWA for the Raleigh forecast area Not sure how up to date this is, but here is AKQs warning criteria: https://www.weather.gov/media/akq/miscNEWS/criteria.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 47 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I don't think that Greenville, NC snow data is correct. Pretty sure they've gotten 6+ in the last 10 years.. It's possible that the climate data is incorrect. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/coop.html?_page=2&state=NC&foreign=false&stationID=313638&_target3=Next+> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowDawg said: Yep, I chose to just ignore the surface and 925 temps cause physics says that if it's that cold at 850 with heavy precip it isn't suddenly warming in the layers below it. It did the same with the previous storm. Had the surface way too warm by as much 5-10 degrees. Showed even the Mtns changing to rain, when as we know the exact opposite happened with snow making it as far south as Atlanta and Athens. That's what I'm hoping for right now. Last system had me changing to rain, but with how heavy the precip was, our temp dropped as we stayed all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VARTV Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 AKQ - besides the new WSW they have upped snow totals for my location in VB from 1.8 to 2.3... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, ST21 said: That's what I'm hoping for right now. Last system had me changing to rain, but with how heavy the precip was, our temp dropped as we stayed all snow. Yep. My concern with this system is whether or not the mid/upper levels cool in time and stay that way. Surface temps in the mid/upper 30s is fine for wet snow but the upper levels have to cooperate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 The HRRR is having some big issues with evaporational cooling. No way The whole column is below freezing and surface temps are in the low 40's. I don't buy it. Here is the sounding over central NC during the height of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 18Z NAM moving north with the snowfall...again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, chris624wx said: Not sure how up to date this is, but here is AKQs warning criteria: https://www.weather.gov/media/akq/miscNEWS/criteria.pdf Thanks, looks like RAH's and AKQs are the same criteria. Interestingly, the current watch areas are not currently forecasted w/greater amounts, although I think we can agree the potential is greater. I wonder if that has something to do with it or just different office preferences. Probably overthinking it.. Now I wanna see what MHX does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, calculus1 said: 18Z NAM moving north with the snowfall...again. Seems like it is alone with that trend and overamping the system. Really doesn't change much other than how long areas take to transition. Everyone sees snow eventually due to the storm track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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