wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I like how the Euro is increasing qpf still. Heavier rates are better for everyone 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainmusic Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Honestly, how much stock should we put into the Euro when this time yesterday the model showed almost nothing for the majority of the state? I am glad to see it's coming around to the NAM, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, Weatherzim said: Does it give a better look for upstate sc Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk The Northern upstate is "in the game" so to speak. No way to know what's going to happen yet. Could get blanked or could get a widespread 2-4 inches. My gut says mostly nothing since every storm I've ever tracked with an 800mb'ish warm nose has verified much warmer at that level than what short range guidance showed. But I think this storm may be different since we aren't seeing a strong push of warmer air with the precip, it's more just where the 0c line settles out/stall tonight with the frontal passage, and then when does it start back progressing South tomorrow? Just an FYI, there will most likely be a slight "push north" of the warm nose for Southeastern NC. I'm speaking for the western upstate here. Any way you slice it, the CC radars should get heavy use tomorrow from our board. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Focus on the short range models folks. The globals are less useful at this point in the game. 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Lets take a moment to realize how God Awful the Euro has been for this storm...... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Complete fold to the nam 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, ryanconway63 said: Lets take a moment to realize how God Awful the Euro has been for the last ten years.... Fixed your post! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, franklin NCwx said: Fixed your post! Dont tell DT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I havent really seen anyone talk winds. The NAM is showing sustained 20 gusts to 40 in SE Wake by 03z Friday. Gusts to tropical storm force over the sounds and lower banks as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 27 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Euro definitely mixier than other models Granted, wasn’t it pretty rainy most of yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I havent really seen anyone talk winds. The NAM is showing sustained 20 gusts to 40 in SE Wake by 03z Friday. Gusts to tropical storm force over the sounds and lower banks as well. That will really help road conditions by drying out the wetness before the freeze comes in! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I havent really seen anyone talk winds. The NAM is showing sustained 20 gusts to 40 in SE Wake by 03z Friday. Gusts to tropical storm force over the sounds and lower banks as well. Someone posted Roberts take a few pages back.. He made note in his summary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 8 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOD Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, griteater said: I really like your forecast format. I also think the specifics look reasonable for this storm. Thank you for all your time and effort on our board! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, griteater said: Fair enough. I like the format a lot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Noted the 17z HRRR is a full five(!) degrees colder at the surface than the GFS at 11z tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Noted the 17z HRRR is a full five(!) degrees colder at the surface than the GFS. I expect some snow outside of the Mtns on this 36 hr 18z run. The surface temps were 4-6 degrees colder at the end of the 17z run verses the 12z run at the same time frame. The 18z is running now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePackBacker Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 16 minutes ago, griteater said: I came back to American for this call...a dusting to 2"! Where's ColdRain...can he not bring the smack down on this. :-) This setup is a little different than most with the southsinking/progressive HP. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 My initial thinking right now is as follows: Greenville, NC: 3"-6" Norfolk: 2"-4" Raleigh: 2"-4" Wilmington: 1" or less For perspective, below is snowfall data for the above four cities: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: My initial thinking right now is as follows: Greenville, NC: 3"-6" Norfolk: 2"-4" Raleigh: 2"-4" Wilmington: 1" or less For perspective, below is snowfall data for the above four cities: I don't think that Greenville, NC snow data is correct. Pretty sure they've gotten 6+ in the last 10 years.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: I don't think that Greenville, NC snow data is correct. Pretty sure they've gotten 6+ in the last 10 years.. I had 12 in the 2010 storm. Defitniely not accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I don't think that Greenville, NC snow data is correct. Pretty sure they've gotten 6+ in the last 10 years.. Also we have not seen a flake since Dec 10th 2018 not 2019.....in the Jan 2018 storm I had 7-8" but officially they listed like 4-5".....we had 8" in Dec 2010 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Look at that warmth in Ne Ga and Nw Sc Ouch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Will be interesting to see what RAH does with issuing Advisories or Warnings this afternoon. My guess is WWA's for Guilford, Randolph, and everyone E of there, and N of Montgomery and Cumberland. Perhaps WWW's for counties N and E of Wake/Durham, which are flirting with warning criteria according to what's seen here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said: Will be interesting to see what RAH does with issuing Advisories or Warnings this afternoon. My guess is WWA's for Guilford, Randolph, and everyone E of there, and N of Montgomery and Cumberland. Perhaps WWW's for counties N and E of Wake/Durham, which are flirting with warning criteria according to what's seen here. The NWS RAH just pulled the trigger on WWA's for most of their counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central North Carolina. * WHEN...From 10 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the afternoon or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Hazardous travel conditions could extend into Friday morning where higher snow accumulations occur and wet or icy spots linger. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, jjwxman said: The NWS RAH just pulled the trigger on WWA's for most of their counties. The advisory says 1-3", but my point forecast is only has a 50% chance of precip. Kinda odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 GSP is being very conservative...when the high amount (1 in 10 chance) is only 1" still for Charlotte 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Latest HRRR is North (I'm comparing it to the 12z run) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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