Tar Heel Snow Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 16 minutes ago, SnowJoMoJo said: Maybe model upgrades have fixed a lot of this, but maybe time to reflect on Cold Rain's thread from about 3 years ago... My favorite line from the post " Pink areas on a p-type map indicate slightly colder rain than the green areas. " I was going to repost this! Thank you for including it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherzim Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Yikes sc gets nothing Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, FLweather said: High sleet totals look possible for Northern SC and Southern NC. With surface layer above freezing high sleet totals will not verify or help with accumulation, if sleet is the precip type. Takes a lot of sleet to accumulate and usually has to be below freezing for anything other than mulch accumulations. This will skew clown maps, however, in the weenie direction. My worry level about the ML's is increasing for the Triangle area and points SE but not folding due to one run of the NAM. Sticking with my calls for now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 22 hours ago, Avid6eek said: Welcome, from Chesapeake, VA. At this point in time I'm very happy to see the bulls eye 100-200 miles to my south. :-) w00t. Never deny the NW trend. :-D 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, eyewall said: I never said it was a final call but yeah the sleet concern is always a real one in central NC. It matches well with my thinking at present. Being close to the rain or sleet or whatever form of non-accumulating wintry precip we want to call it will be nerve wracking but it is ALWAYS where the highest accumulations set up. When in doubt, go with Climo for where the mix sets up (Somewhere in Wake county) except in this case eastern sections will benefit from the LP once it gets cranking and I think it will benefit us in the Triangle as well as it pulls away. We just may waste a little extra precip. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Hi Res Nam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Not that I really believe it's an implication of anything, more of just a note I'm making: If you look at hour one of the NAM and compare it to current radar for say Texas, since that's where part A of our storm will get going, there's a considerable amount more moisture around than even the NAM is showing. Again, just a note. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I'm sticking with my 1-2 sloppy inches here in the western piedmont until I see evidence to suggest otherwise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Hi Res Nam Nice pop around south mountain state park! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 One thing this run of the NAM showed was significant freezing rain(.6 qpf) down around Whiteville and Sampson County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, wncsnow said: Hi Res Nam Anyone else impressed with the consistency of the NAM over the last 2 days and with the 2.8 event? Rock solid. Some noise but overall it has been the most steadfast model again. It used to be a model from which I expected the consistency of Clemson basketball run to run... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, strongwxnc said: Nice pop around south mountain state park! Slowly but surely that lee side minimum is disappearing. Like clockwork 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Folks were discounting the NAM yesterday but now taking it into consideration when modeling the warm nose. I know it is typically pretty good with warm nose but this is also due to the fact it is really amping up the storm. The warm nose is directly related to how strong it amps up that low. If the NAM is overdone, then so is the warm nose. Plus, the warm nose will go away with this storm as it progresses. It will not persist the entire time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 44 minutes ago, Solak said: WRAL Weather 9 mins · JUST IN: We updated the snow potential a bit. We have an area of 2-3" possiblel totals including parts of the triangle. Splitting hairs here, but that’s not the map they have on their website. Not hugely different, but different nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: Folks were discounting the NAM yesterday but now taking it into consideration when modeling the warm nose. I know it is typically pretty good with warm nose but this is also due to the fact it is really amping up the storm. The warm nose is directly related to how strong it amps up that low. If the NAM is overdone, then so is the warm nose. Plus, the warm nose will go away with this storm as it progresses. It will not persist the entire time. Yeah, better to flip to sleet for a while and get good rates than be fringed. Obviously down towards SC is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, PackGrad05 said: Folks were discounting the NAM yesterday but now taking it into consideration when modeling the warm nose. I know it is typically pretty good with warm nose but this is also due to the fact it is really amping up the storm. The warm nose is directly related to how strong it amps up that low. If the NAM is overdone, then so is the warm nose. Plus, the warm nose will go away with this storm as it progresses. It will not persist the entire time. Spot on. It is the absolute best model for depicting a warm nose. That used to be the model's only use for me... One good thing about the system is it is heading more east. Large Miller A storms with a prevalent warm nose riding up the coastline do not drag down colder ML's until the precip has ended. The trajectory of this system being more east move whatever warm nose out and sets up a decent period of snow for all areas Triangle-East. At least that's how I see it as compared to normal situations where the warm nose seems to linger until only flurries are left... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 The HRW models all came north from 0z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 The 12Z HRRR shows all rain for NC outside of the mountains. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, PackGrad05 said: The 12Z HRRR shows all rain for NC outside of the mountains. The HRRR is a known torch. 2.8 is a perfect example. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 32 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Folks were discounting the NAM yesterday but now taking it into consideration when modeling the warm nose. I know it is typically pretty good with warm nose but this is also due to the fact it is really amping up the storm. The warm nose is directly related to how strong it amps up that low. If the NAM is overdone, then so is the warm nose. Plus, the warm nose will go away with this storm as it progresses. It will not persist the entire time. Wouldn’t higher precip amounts lead to more cooling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, RT1980 said: Wouldn’t higher precip amounts lead to more cooling? They could... but a less amped storm wouldn't bring as much warming into the mid-levels either.. I'd prefer that version. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, RT1980 said: Wouldn’t higher precip amounts lead to more cooling? But also can lead to more of a warm nose with a more amped system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 From Robert. thinks the nam is too warm temp wise. Someone is getting 10+ inches out of this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, PackGrad05 said: They could... but a less amped storm wouldn't bring as much warming into the mid-levels either.. I'd prefer that version. Thanks, Learning, these rules are about like calculus! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Gonna come down to nowcasting for the northern upstate of SC. The HRRR and ARW both have my location's sounding going isothermal around 10am just as the heavy axis of precip moves in. The HRRR keeps surface temps at 34-36 though which would be an issue, but I'm guessing it has it's typical bias at play here. On the other hand, the 3km NAM has the warm nose holding strong until 1-3pm for the northern upstate. It shows surface temps at 32-33 however. If, if.... somehow the HRRR and ARW thermal profile is right then the northern upstate could get a 4 to 6 inch past job tomorrow as the heaviest rates come through between 10:00am and 3:00pm. If the 3km NAM is right, then we're going to see a lot of rain/white rain/sleet mix with a possible burst of moderate snow as the back edge swings through with little to no accumulations. It's all comes down to that 800mb warm nose, (and possibly surface temps even if the warm nose is overcome). I would be really nervous in the Raleigh area as it looks like the warm nose will most likely push in to that area during height of the storm. Also I wouldn't bank on the precip outlasting the nose on the backside there. Whoever stays just to north of the warm nose push in that region is going to get 6-10 inches. Whoever is just to the south of it is going to be extremely disappointed. My best guess is Southern Wake gets 1-3 inches of snow/sleet from the storm will the northern end of the county gets the jackpot. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 46 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Slowly but surely that lee side minimum is disappearing. Like clockwork It's still very visible on both the 12K and the 3K NAM models, though. Especially from Caldwell County to the north and east. Being in the extreme NW corner of Catawba County, that makes me a bit nervous. 4 minutes ago, RT1980 said: Thanks, Learning, these rules are about like calculus! Nah. Calculus is much more straightforward. Weather prediction with high degrees of accuracy and pinpoint precision is still an unattainable goal in 2020. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 SREF Mean jumped to 3 inches for KHKY with the 09Z run. Still lots of spread though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 If this ends up with less of a warm nose, eastern NC is gonna get pummeled. The qpf is there, just need thermals to cooperate and bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: With surface layer above freezing high sleet totals will not verify or help with accumulation, if sleet is the precip type. Takes a lot of sleet to accumulate and usually has to be below freezing for anything other than mulch accumulations. This will skew clown maps, however, in the weenie direction. My worry level about the ML's is increasing for the Triangle area and points SE but not folding due to one run of the NAM. Sticking with my calls for now! Sleet will still accumulate at 33-34. I was on the wrong side of a warm nose for a storm a few years ago... the lowest my temp dropped to was 33.1, and started rising from that point and I wound up with an inch and half of sleet that also coated the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now