QC_Halo Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 13 minutes ago, sarcean said: Hard to put faith into a map that doesn’t even include a B on it Haha, noticed that too. But I went to MS State, so I figured it out. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, Wow said: Good to see he made me the nexus of all zones. I like where we are sitting @Wow, I think we will be just far enough north to not have too much mixing issues, just need the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, sarcean said: Hard to put faith into a map that doesn’t even include a B on it The real question is: WHAT ABOUT ZONE G? 3 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 i'm not trying to get my hopes up too high as many of us know..but i will say that in the past, alot of storms trended warmer and less snowy the closer we got. this is the opposite. it's been trending snowier and storms that trend snowier the closer you get tend to verify. local mets and NWS will always be conservative until the signs are too strong to be denied. Always easier to bust with higher totals than getting cold rain when you predict 10 inches. I like Eric Webb's take on this. also WXSOUTH, one of the mets i respect the most had a great discussion on why this thing might overperform. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flotownsc Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 The short range models can’t even get the forecast right, it’s supposed to be pouring in Charlotte right now. So really there’s no telling what tomorrow will bring. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I agree with Allan's placements, but would lower the amounts by 1-2 inches for each zone. I would be SHOCKED if southern wake got 1-3 inches. I could see a trace to one inch of sleet/snow slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, QC_Halo said: Haha, noticed that,too. But I went to MS State, so I figured it out. There's a joke somewhere in here about the Ole Miss forecaster spilling alcohol all over his forecast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Current NWS GSP forecast for snow totals. Conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 06Z models not as juicy as 00Z models for KHKY: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, calculus1 said: 06Z models not as juicy as 00Z models for KHKY: 6Z EPS looks much better for the 40 corridor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 SREF plumes for KHKY. A two-inch mean isn't too shabby for this uneventful winter, so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, calculus1 said: SREF plumes for KHKY. A two-inch mean isn't too shabby for this uneventful winter, so far. New SREF will be out in about 30 mins.. would be nice to see them start to cluster more and have less spread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: New SREF will be out in about 30 mins.. would be nice to see them start to cluster more and have less spread. The 09Z SREF just came out on the national weather service site. It’s definitely an increase especially for 40 corridor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 For the SREF, I would look at QPF as well, ad it tends to run quite warm .5" QPF for Greensboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 35 minutes ago, Amos83 said: I like where we are sitting @Wow, I think we will be just far enough north to not have too much mixing issues, just need the precip I'm worried about surface temps. Per the GFS, we're warm at the surface even though the column is cold and it's snowing. Nam is a bit colder but seems to be discounted by....like everybody. If we're sitting at 36 or so we'll lose alot of accumulation and sticking to the roads is doubtful IMO. I don't see the rates being hard enough to cool us down to freezing. Evidently no other met does either looking at the accumulation numbers forecasted. Everybody is honking the "on elevated surfaces" jargon. Sigh. Hoping things tick colder today. Remember when we were worried about qpf? Nope, it's always temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, SnowNiner said: I'm worried about surface temps. Per the GFS, we're warm at the surface even though the column is cold and it's snowing. Nam is a bit colder but seems to be discounted by....like everybody. If we're sitting at 36 or so we'll lose alot of accumulation and sticking to the roads is doubtful IMO. I don't see the rates being hard enough to cool us down to freezing. Evidently no other met does either looking at the accumulation numbers forecasted. Everybody is honking the "on elevated surfaces" jargon. Sigh. Hoping things tick colder today. Remember when we were worried about qpf? Nope, it's always temps. I guess my question to myself, in that situation, is why would I trust the GFS with thermals? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Yesterday afternoon, at 15z, SREF mean for RDU was around 2". Now we're sitting at half a foot at 9z today. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, BullCityWx said: I guess my question to myself, in that situation, is why would I trust the GFS with thermals? Yeah, well because all the professional forecasters seem to be along with GSP. They're discounting the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I'm convinced no one is going to be convinced until convincing snow is accumulating on a convincing ground. 8 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, SnowNiner said: Yeah, well because all the professional forecasters seem to be along with GSP. They're discounting the nam. My gut feeling is they were punting until today. Always trust NAM thermals over GFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, Wow said: I'm convinced no one is going to be convinced until convincing snow is accumulating on a convincing ground. It's like nobody saw what happened in Georgia two weeks ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowNiner said: Yeah, well because all the professional forecasters seem to be along with GSP. They're discounting the nam. Well they’ve been burnt twice by this with the past two events here. Third times a charm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, wncsnow said: New SREF will be out in about 30 mins.. would be nice to see them start to cluster more and have less spread. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoMoJo Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I’m still learning on here and therefore don’t necessarily know what all pieces are important for the models. Are all the important players now onshore and in a position to be well sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, Wow said: I'm convinced no one is going to be convinced until convincing snow is accumulating on a convincing ground. I am just glad that Tim Buckley was man enough to go all in yesterday. Maybe that will help us not have a grocery store/gas station apocalypse the day that the snow is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Hi all, I’m usually lurking but I just moved to Norfolk a few weeks ago (from Georgia). Does anyone have/remember an analogous event to compare this potential storm to for the Hampton Roads area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Wow, that looks great. It removes the lull in the central piedmont, hope it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, SnowJoMoJo said: I’m still learning on here and therefore don’t necessarily know what all pieces are important for the models. Are all the important players now onshore and in a position to be well sampled? Yes, that would be correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: It's like nobody saw what happened in Georgia two weeks ago. Yep... overcame the temp issue quickly with those rates. I remember a March snow several years back here where it snowed moderately - big flakes - for hours and barely made the grass white... remember being so frustrated with that one! This is a more significant even than that but goes to show how just a degree or two can make quite a difference to your totals. I think this is going to come down to the wire with temps to see how its all going to shake out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: My gut feeling is they were punting until today. Always trust NAM thermals over GFS. This cant be stressed enough....also this wont be as big a mixing problem as some think.....a lot of those sleet soundings in central NC are BARELY sleet soundings at all and once it flips to all snow and that coastal cranks up I doubt we see nearly as much mixing over central and south central NC as the models show....those silly NAM numbers are doable but even 60-70% of the NAM output is a monster hit.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now