StormyClearweather Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, Wow said: Ah .. March 09 2009 not 2008 my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoMoJo Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Last 6 runs of NAM - LP slightly stronger and maybe 50-100 miles further north. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Hi Res Nam still not as robust but improving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Ah .. March 09Yes. That storm sucked. S. U. C. K. E. D. No other way around it.Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Anyone have a trend on the last 5 NAM runs. I believe it has been moving the snow line north each run. More of a warm nose as well. Do mods read these posts? They’re exhausting. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, calculus1 said: Yes. That storm sucked. S. U. C. K. E. D. No other way around it. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk Most painful storm of my lifetime. Not even close. Made worse by the fact that we had barely had any snow in the years prior.. that was insult to injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: So, it is not warmer than the last run? I'm not going to bicker on the storm thread but... You said "trending towards all rain" as the first frame of precip arrived. Of course, the run turned out to be an absolute hammer for much of the state. I'm not saying not to post what you see but at least wait to speak or back it up with something of substance, not just blanket statements. You're not the only one. Sorry if I come off wrong, there's just a lot of activity on here and clutter really dampens the great meteorological chat we come here for, especially as we work towards storm mode 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Not sure how valid these 10:1 maps are. Will have to dig into some soundings. Not sure I by over an inch of QPF unless we see the GFS/Euro/UKmet jump on board tonight/tomorrow. Overall setup is pretty straightforward. Weak to moderate STJ impulse undercutting the ridge out west. Suppressive PJ flow and strong HP over the plains. It's a pretty classic look for a moderate event (3 to 6 or 4 to 8 type). Area from Ashevilel to Elizabeth City looks Good to me. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Nice eye-candy, but I didn't realize this was the 12k NAM until someone posted the 3k NAM. It still shows a nice event but nothing like this. Is there any rational reason to pay much attention to what it says as opposed to the hi-res version. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Do mods read these posts? They’re exhausting. Each and every one 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Ah .. March 09 I believe this was a clipper coming out of the North which usually does have prominent downsloping. Correction: it was an upper low. I remember the storm now. Was in Greensboro for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Do mods read these posts? They’re exhausting. It's objectively true that the snow shield is migrating north in time. We've been here before. Ignore naysayers at your peril. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, AirNelson39 said: I believe this was a clipper coming out of the North which usually does have prominent downsloping. It wasn't.. It was a.robust upper level low that tracked just south to create this setup. A lot of the snow that fell in the mountains was rain in the foothills before switching over 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 If you guys follow Brad P on Facebook he just did an awesome video. He showed a tool where he shifted the storm track 25 miles in each direction . Give it a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Nice eye-candy, but I didn't realize this was the 12k NAM until someone posted the 3k NAM. It still shows a nice event but nothing like this. Is there any rational reason to pay much attention to what it says as opposed to the hi-res version. Here is the 3k. The difference....one shows 12km resolution and one shows 3km resolution. The 3k will be able to see smaller topographical features Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I'm not going to bicker on the storm thread but... You said "trending towards all rain" as the first frame of precip arrived. Of course, the run turned out to be an absolute hammer for much of the state. I'm not saying not to post what you see but at least wait to speak or back it up with something of substance, not just blanket statements. You're not the only one. Sorry if I come off wrong, there's just a lot of activity on here and clutter really dampens the great meteorological chat we come here for, especially as we work towards storm mode It was warmer though. It appears to be trending towards the ECMWF, which is almost entirely rain. Same with the UKMET. This is not unfounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Good luck guys. And I mean that sincerely. If anybody from outside this region starts coming in here to troll you, let me or any other mod know. Report or PM. Hope it works out (Just be wary of the NAM. It can be a heartbreaker..although it has support this time, so it's likely on to something). 10 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Middle of the event and it's at or barely above freezing at the surface. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 RAH updated their snow maps shortly after 9 and still have wake county less than one inch in the most likely scenario. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I'm kinda bummed tho. Was hoping my mom in Marion, SC would get something too. Looks more like a mid to east NC thing. I'm living vicariously through yall 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: I'm kinda bummed tho. Was hoping my mom in Marion, SC would get something too. Looks more like a mid to east NC thing. I'm living vicariously through yall Aviation Dave will win this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Regardless warm nose or not that's a sharp cut in southern Wake co. Either a lot of sleet or rain one. Hope it doesn't change much in next 36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Isopycnic said: Aviation Dave will win this one. I don't even know exactly where he is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Warm nose crawling in on the 3k nam. I think that somebody curled a monkeys paw when they asked for a North trend. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Regardless warm nose or not that's a sharp cut in southern Wake co. Either a lot of sleet or rain one. Hope it doesn't change much in next 36hrs. A sharp cutoff in southern wake is a sure bet with any winter weather! I wouldn't expect any different! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Wow said: Middle of the event and it's at or barely above freezing at the surface. You might wanna wake up yalls local WFOs down there. lol. Although admittedly, I'd wait for a few more runs of the GFS. We both know how the NAM likes to get precip happy. But looks like everything is bumping up and there is a real good trend for your region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: RAH updated their snow maps shortly after 9 and still have wake county less than one inch in the most likely scenario. RAH Wont bite unless every model is showing 5+ inches within 12 hours. i don't blame them we've all been burned so many times being conservative just makes sense 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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