olafminesaw Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishbfm Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 GFS trend ain't bad... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The simulated radar can be deceiving best to look at QPF totals 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Mike Maze on WRAL just said that they are thinking the low will form further off shore and limit the precipitation in triangle. Going for trace to one inch in our area. This is based on their future cast model. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, phishbfm said: GFS trend ain't bad... That last runs push back south against the warm nose is very encouraging. Hope to see that become a trend. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Apps lee-side screw-zone in full effect! I would think if the precipitation truly blossoms that it would fill back in further NW, but maybe that's just wishful thinking... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 ABC11 (WTVD) actually showed the output from the NAM but discounts the amounts. They say what is important from the NAM is that the main area with a threat of the most snow lines up fairly well with other models. Still conservative at 1" or less, but did say that a large area east of Raleigh has a 40% chance of 1" or greater. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, ragtop50 said: ABC11 (WTVD) actually showed the output from the NAM but discounts the amounts. They say what is important from the NAM is that the main area with a threat of the most snow lines up fairly well with other models. Still conservative at 1" or less, but did say that a large area east of Raleigh has a 40% chance of 1" or greater. There was some not great forecasting on triangle television tonight 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Looking forward to some insight from brother Lookout for this area. Still think above 85 in upstate gets a nice event if anything close to the nam and gfs pan out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 RAH hasn't updated snow maps since 4 pm yesterday. It will be interesting to see how conservative they will be 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: RAH hasn't updated snow maps since 4 pm yesterday. It will be interesting to see how conservative they will be They updated them at 3:30PM this afternoon. Check their FB or twitter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 One thing I'm watching though, assuming the qpf is significant in mby, is the surface temps. The last GFS run although improved, still has surface temps around 34 degrees during the event (per soundings). Yes accumulation can happen at that temp but we'll lose accumulation because of it. I'd really like the nam to be more right not only because of qpf but its slightly colder. I'd greatly like to be below freezing during peak moisture. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, SnowNiner said: One thing I'm watching though, assuming the qpf is significant in mby, is the surface temps. The last GFS run although improved, still has surface temps around 34 degrees during the event (per soundings). Yes accumulation can happen at that temp but we'll lose accumulation because of it. I'd really like the nam to be more right not only because of qpf but its slightly colder. I'd greatly like to be below freezing during peak moisture. Was just looking at the same thing. I've seen it go both ways in this scenario. I've seen it bottom out at 34 and refuse to budge and I've also seen the heavy snow falling through the sub freezing column above give that extra degree or two needed. I guess only time will tell in that regard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: They updated them at 3:30PM this afternoon. Check their FB or twitter. It’s annoying how RAH will tweet updated maps LONG before updating their own website. I miss the old internet before the constant catering to social media users. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 My call for Greensboro: <1" 25% 1-3" 50% 4"+ 25% 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: My call for Greensboro: <1" 25% 1-3" 50% 4"+ 25% The latest GFS has given me hope, but I’m still not quite as optimistic. I’d go with <1” at 40%, 1-3” at 50%, and >3” at 10%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Brad just came out with his first map and has 0" for Greensboro 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, Wow said: That’s a lazy map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, PackGrad05 said: WRAL says they have trended their amounts down after today because the cold air will be delayed and the low will be weaker and further off-shore. Has anyone seen that in the forecast models because I haven't? Seems to me they are hanging their hat heavily on the UKMET and EURO and throwing out the other models with that forecast. It is hard to bet against the UKMET and ECMWF both and I do not blame them at all. Curious to see 18z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Brad just came out with his first map and has 0" for Greensboro But 1” for Myrtle Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 55 minutes ago, phishbfm said: GFS trend ain't bad... Starting to get a little excited over this but still not holding my breath. Been disappointed too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: It is hard to bet against the UKMET and ECMWF both and I do not blame them at all. Curious to see 18z ECMWF. Indeed, but those haven't exactly been reliable for the southeast so far this year it seems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: Indeed, but those haven't exactly been reliable for the southeast so far the past 9 years it seems Fixed your post! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, Extreme NEGA said: I like that map with the differences in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, ST21 said: I like that map with the differences in the models. Hope the mid-levels trend colder but my gut says no lol. The 2/8 storm was much weaker and didn't push warm air in the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 46 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: My call for Greensboro: <1" 25% 1-3" 50% 4"+ 25% Now give the same odds for Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 21 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Fixed your post! I’ve never since revered the Euro like I did before the Dec 2010 storm. Still like it and want it on my side, but It hasn’t been the same ever since for whatever reason 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 hour ago, SnowDawg said: Was just looking at the same thing. I've seen it go both ways in this scenario. I've seen it bottom out at 34 and refuse to budge and I've also seen the heavy snow falling through the sub freezing column above give that extra degree or two needed. I guess only time will tell in that regard. Agree. It comes down to precip rates and how shallow the near surface warm layer is. In this case the GFS and NAM yield good rates and the warm layer is very shallow (in this area) so I’d expect to see surface temps move 2-3 degrees lower than modeled. But look above, as warm nosing aloft is a separate problem. The Euro doesn’t have the precip rates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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