griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 The Euro is 0 for 5 in SE Winter Storm Model Battles 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 47 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Guys the NWS will stay conservative as long as they possibly can, sometimes to their own peril. I had a forecast of 0 inches and R/S mix 12 hours before getting almost 6 inches a little over a week ago. Yes, for good reason. This is not a weekend snow that affects relatively low population areas. This is coming in on a weekday and has much more implications if snow does materialize. On the flip side, if snow doesn't materialize and the NWS hyped it up, it would get picked up by the media and turned into a forecast bust. I think they are doing the responsible thing here given the extreme model disparity atm. I think they did a good job explaining why they weren't favoring the snowier solutions at this time, instead of just throwing them out and running with the Euro/UK. From a keyboard meteorologist perspective, as 99% of this board (myself included) is, it is frustrating and it does sting and lead to anxiety (as reading the AFD last few days has for me) but we also do not have any liability in this forecast. That being said, the negativity here is surprising. I know the Euro trends aren't great, but I'm not putting every egg in one basket. There has never been a storm that was ironed out 2+ days before go time. I think we are in the same place as we were yesterday. Obviously the CMC and GFS flipped but the GFS + Nam combo is certainly not to be brushed aside, especially at this range. Euro has flipped on this storm a couple times, as have the ensembles. I think we are slowly settling into a situation where the models will move into a compromise. For South Carolina people, this was never going to be your storm. There may have been a couple runs that threw you a bone, but this has consistently been N Ga mtns and a NC storm. It would not surprise me if the upstate saw flakes and some minor accumulations but temps most certainly will be an issue. The juiciest runs have tended to bring precip in faster which works against SC people as the cold doesn't have sufficient time to filter in. Also, the amped solutions do include the dreaded energy transfer, so foothills locations would not benefit with that either. With all that said, if you were in charge of a public forecast 48hrs out with this storm, what would yours look like with everything you've seen so far? That is what these Mets have to do and that is a lot tougher than bickering over negative model runs or clinging to ones you like. I took a stab at it for NC. Here it is: Charlotte - Moisture is biggest issue, temps may not promote accumulation before moisture moves out. 1 in high end. Likely- No accumulation Triad - Moisture is biggest issue. 1-2 in high end. Likely- Dusting Triangle - How much Moisture? 5 in high end. Likely- Dusting to 1/2 in Sandhills- I think moisture will be fine here. I am not convinced temps will promote all snow throughout. 3 in high end. Likely- Around 1 in Greenville- Best spot, imo. 8 in high end. Likely- 1-3 in New Bern - Temps will be an issue on the BL but I like the consistency in crashing them with plentiful moisture. 5 in high end. Likely- 1 in NE NC - Moisture is a big question here and the variability in accumulations obviously will depend on that. I think 4-5 in is the high end. Likely- 1-2 in 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: <clipped> ...Also, the amped solutions do include the dreaded energy transfer, so foothills locations would not benefit with that either. </clipped> Fantastic post, thanks for your insight! Do you know of any publications online that describe the Miller-A energy transfer scenario and the underlying processes? I'm fascinated by how the storm puts itself on "hold" during the transfer to the coast and practically skips over upstate SC. Thanks in advance for any info you can provide! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, griteater said: The Euro is 0 for 5 in SE Winter Storm Model Battles Really? I would not have expected that thanks. My understanding is that the snow event from last weekend in GA was also poorly modeled by the euro, but well done by the nam. See I write that, but I'm having such a hard time believing it. I want to weenie out but my skeptical mind just won't let me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Despite being poorly worded my post about the NWS really wasn't meant as a shot. Conservative is absolutely the right play right now. My point was more aimed at not getting upset or anxious about them not being gung-ho for snow right now when they are just hedging their bets and biding their time. It really has no bearing on what will or will not happen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted February 18, 2020 Author Share Posted February 18, 2020 Thread^ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: This looks like a good case study for how important short range models are for events like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 I hear those of you talking about the responsibility of the network / TV Mets. That being said, I treasure this board because I am responsible for my family. For the Snowmaggedon we had in ATL - my family was home warm and safe because of those here. I simply chose to work from home that day and my kids did not go to school. Thursday could be a challenge because of timing. Had the 2/8 event occurred on 2/7, the impact in my area would have been somewhat significant. I guess it is all about perspective. Regardless, I appreciate the analysis and thoughtful discussion here. Sure, I want 6” of snow IMBY - not that realistic. So, I come here, I read, I learn, and I prepare. Have a great day. . Pro 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 The NAM has its flaws, but I think it's ironic to see it written off by so many mets. The two minor events that have occurred so far in W NC, NW SC and parts of Georgia were nailed by the NAM, days in advance. It's had solid footing this year. Also, as someone living in western NC, I have a hard time buying dry solutions - everything has overachieved in qpf this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 regarding this Thursday event, obviously lower elevation in georgia seem to be only a cold rain now, but curious if a short drive up ga 400 to suches (elevation 3000-3500) would give me a shot at seeing a nice snow? i dont have access to reading the thermal profiles, so not sure if elevation would help out in north ga or they would just see a cold rain as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said: regarding this Thursday event, obviously lower elevation in georgia seem to be only a cold rain now, but curious if a short drive up ga 400 to suches (elevation 3000-3500) would give me a shot at seeing a nice snow? i dont have access to reading the thermal profiles, so not sure if elevation would help out in north ga or they would just see a cold rain as well? Blood mountain Hwy 19 (near suches) is where I crashed my motorcycle and broke six vertebrae and eight ribs. It’s usually good for snow but a warm 700-800 level is a bit concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, BooneWX said: The NAM has its flaws, but I think it's ironic to see it written off by so many mets. The two minor events that have occurred so far in W NC, NW SC and parts of Georgia were nailed by the NAM, days in advance. It's had solid footing this year. Yeah, but saying that the times when it's snowed supports the model that said that it was going to snow, so therefore we should believe it when it says it will snow is at most half of the consideration. I could make a 'model' that says it will snow every day, and it would meet that standard. The other part of it is: how often has it called for significant snow and then been wrong this far out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Blood mountain Hwy 19 (near suches) is where I crashed my motorcycle and broke six vertebrae and eight ribs. It’s usually good for snow but a warm 700-800 level is a bit concerning. Yeah a this time yesterday I would've said no doubt safe bet for some snow. But man the NAM and GFS are trending quickly in the wrong direction for mid-level temps even up here in the Mtns. If they do end up being over amped then I'd expect snow totals in the N GA Mtns to tick back upward. If not though, then it's probably going to just be a long day of sloppy wintry mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Anyone have the EPS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Anyone have the EPS? Mean went down again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Anyone have the EPS? Similar to 6z. Couple of tenths less. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, SnowDawg said: Mean went down again. A serious red flag for sure. How did EPS do with the winter storm about a week ago in GA and SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: A serious red flag for sure. How did EPS do with the winter storm about a week ago in GA and SC? Horrible like the euro operational did. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Horrible like the euro operational did. Was it an issue with qpf, temps, or both? Was the UKMET mirroring the ECMWF during that storm like it is now with this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 We are entering into , in my opinion, the deadly NAM range. It should be accurate and cling to what it shows.... will it hold serve or surrender at 18z?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCSteel Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: We are entering into , in my opinion, the deadly NAM range. It should be accurate and cling to what it shows.... will it hold serve or surrender at 18z?? I can vouch that It's been brutally accurate around Charlotte the last several winter storms at short range for p-types. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 15z SREF Mean QPF bumped north 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, griteater said: 15z SREF Mean QPF bumped north Good sign! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 GSP AFD.....they are slowly increasing confidence in an event Thursday... All told, the best 2 to 3 inch snow accumulations for this relatively short duration event should affect the higher ridges of the NC mountains, with lighter accumulations east of the mountains and mainly northwest of I-85, but with a dusting southeast of the Interstate. Some wintry weather potential will be featured for most zones in the HWO this afternoon, but no Watches will be posted at present. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Out to hr36 on the NAM, I don't see any cause for concern with how this should evolve downstream with precip...let's see where it goes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 The NAM does look more south this run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Looks more surpressed at 45. Not a huge change, we'll see how it plays out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Looks closer to the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: Looks more surpressed at 45. Not a huge change, we'll see how it plays out Yep, maybe a small cave to ECMWF and UKMET. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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