wncsnow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 The Hi Res Nam is dryer but seems to be trending more north/wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, wncsnow said: The Hi Res Nam is dryer but seems to be trending more north/wetter Use the 12k, its resolution is higher.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3k NAM looks like even more sleet and a slower change to snow for many parts of NC. Not as much moisture as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Use the 12k, its resolution is higher.. Other way, 3KM resolution is higher. Think about it as that it can resolve down to 3KM "blocks." 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3km snapshot vs 12km NAM snapshot at the heart of the event. Very similar, and I would not pay a ton of attention to the PType algorithms near the transition line. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: 3k NAM looks like even more sleet and a slower change to snow for many parts of NC. Not as much moisture as well. Good luck with that sleet diagnosis 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, msuwx said: 3km snapshot vs 12km NAM snapshot at the heart of the event. Very similar, and I would not pay a ton of attention to the PType algorithms near the transition line. Matt, for the life of me, I can’t figure out how people are complaining about this run if you’re almost anywhere north of 74 in NC. What do they want? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 How on earth do we get sleet at RDU with this sounding?I’ve seen a lot of great mets ask that exact question and then get sleet. It sounds like a such a meteorological cop out at this point but “never bet against sleet” is a safe strategy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 As of now I think a 1-2 inch event would be about the best the Triangle would pull from this. Drier air with the high position will be a concern. I think there will be some in the lee of the mountains that get shafted somewhat by downsloping. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Good luck with that sleet diagnosis So, you think it is all snow? NAM is usually good with showing warm noses, or so I have been told a few times over the years. NAM was right with the warm nose each time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, BullCityWx said: Matt, for the life of me, I can’t figure out how people are complaining about this run. What do they want? It very much depends on where you are lol. I'd really like the NAM to trend back southwards down the stretch. Not even with the precip, just the southern fringes of the frozen stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I’ve seen a lot of great mets ask that exact question and then get sleet. It sounds like a such a meteorological cop out at this point but “never bet against sleet” is a safe strategy I can’t argue that but with that sounding, I’d imagine the only way we’d sleet is if our moisture got too shallow, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowDawg said: It very much depends on where you are lol. I'd really like the NAM to trend back southwards down the stretch. Not even with the precip, just the southern fringes of the frozen stuff. Yeah I corrected myself there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: As of now I think a 1-2 inch event would be about the best the Triangle would pull from this. Drier air with the high position will be a concern. I think there will be some in the lee of the mountains that get shafted somewhat by downsloping. Thanks for that, eyewall. Ugh. The mountains give (in CAD events), and the mountains take away (in storms from the NW and (sometimes) W directions). Such is life in this incredibly interesting micro-climate. =) Overall, I'm still pretty psyched by this storm, though. This has the most potential all year long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Anybody know where to get an 800mb temp map from the nam? That would show the warm nose much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Some really poor analysis mixed in here. Folks, if you don't know what you're talking about, refrain from analyzing. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 14 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: anyone who has tracked nc/sc storms knows this is a warning shot from the nam. 3k showing that stout of a warm nose and it has only trended stronger. this is a sleet storm for upstate to clt and if i were in rdu i'd be concerned as well. we all know how this usually ends up. Only if it's right about how amplified the system is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Good luck with that sleet diagnosis when is the last time you saw the nam overdo a warm nose only to have it trend colder as we got closer to verification? the warm nose will likely be stronger than advertised. believe these 8-10" outputs at your own peril. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, calculus1 said: Thanks for that, eyewall. Ugh. The mountains give (in CAD events), and the mountains take away (in storms from the NW and (sometimes) W directions). Such is life in this incredibly interesting micro-climate. =) Overall, I'm still pretty psyched by this storm, though. This has the most potential all year long. Yeah ideally I would like to see everyone get in on it but we know how it works down here. This was much easier in my few years in BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, burrel2 said: Anybody know where to get an 800mb temp map from the nam? That would show the warm nose much better. As far as I know, the only way you can see that is on the ARL Meteograms page using the sounding text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Matt, for the life of me, I can’t figure out how people are complaining about this run if you’re almost anywhere north of 74 in NC. What do they want? I don't either. Personally, give me a moisture-packed system over one where people are hoping the light precip is heavy enough. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: when is the last time you saw the nam overdo a warm nose only to have it trend colder as we got closer to verification? the warm nose will likely be stronger than advertised. believe these 8-10" outputs at your own peril. And generally, I’d agree with you but it would take some doing to wreck my sounding. Could it happen? Totally. Is it likely as modeled? I don’t think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 18 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Anybody know where to get an 800mb temp map from the nam? That would show the warm nose much better. Start of event for Upstate (corrected, should have been hr48 for 12z). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 I can’t argue that but with that sounding, I’d imagine the only way we’d sleet is if our moisture got too shallow, right?Verbatim though you’re correct, sorry for the half baked analysis I’m checking the thread via mobile. Caution on using one temperature layer for warm noses, they can pop up anywhere from 900-700mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Let's all quit the Conservative mess and go all in on this one... its the only one we might have the rest of the winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Anybody know where to get an 800mb temp map from the nam? That would show the warm nose much better. Weathernerds site has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, eyewall said: As of now I think a 1-2 inch event would be about the best the Triangle would pull from this. Drier air with the high position will be a concern. I think there will be some in the lee of the mountains that get shafted somewhat by downsloping. Would you include the Triad as part of the lee side in this setup? Or a bit further West in the true foothills... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 14 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Anybody know where to get an 800mb temp map from the nam? That would show the warm nose much better. Weather nerds https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ Also...only has rap, nam, and gfs but old favorite is twister...it shows more levels on the text soundings....sure wish more sites had detailed text soundings like they do. It sure helps seeing those ewls. Arl is ok but the annoying security stuff is...well annoying. http://www.twisterdata.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 14 minutes ago, palmettoweather said: Start of event for Upstate Hour 54, roughly middle of event for Upstate SC, WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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