BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, calculus1 said: This is the sounding for KHKY at hour 54 on the 12Z NAM. That 750mb level is too close for comfort to the 32 F line... IPJ has a +2C warm nose right around there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Big Run on the NAM for Northern NC and Southern VA... Taken Verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Definitely a but further north and quicker to develop the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Never bet against the ECMWF. NAM and other models appear to be caving slowly to ECMWF and UKMET. IMHO Eh, I wouldn't say that. Euro and NAM are extremely far a part. NAM is just consistently moving the southern fringes slightly further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Fortunately, it turns to solid snow for two-thirds of NC by hour 57 on the 12K NAM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Warm nose on the NAM and it is good at sniffing those out. Central NC went from mostly snow to a lot of sleet. Trending the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 This NAM run , if you compare the vortex from 6z to 12z , is not as flat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 22 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: The 6z Euro was not drier than the 0z run. Definitely still drier than other models, but the main/control/mean all bumped slightly north with QPF. It just spent over a whole day going back and forth with every single run. Exactly. This narrative that the 6z Euro was drier than the 0z is false. 3 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Never bet against the ECMWF. NAM and other models appear to be caving slowly to ECMWF and UKMET. IMHO Watching the 12z NAM now, but through prior runs, this is not correct. The Euro has shifted toward the NAM, not the other way around. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 The NAM warm nose is due to the fact that it is over amplifying the system. Only get a warm nose if the system is as strong as it says, which is unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, msuwx said: Exactly. This narrative that the 6z Euro was drier than the 0z is false. Watching the 12z NAM now, but through prior runs, this is not correct. The Euro has shifted toward the NAM, not the other way around. Speaking in terms of warmth aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Still snowing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Someone will probably get close to a foot on this NAM run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: IPJ has a +2C warm nose right around there Yeah, that's not too far south of me. Continued shifts like this put me more and more in the mix. From what I can tell, the warm nose is not predominantly banked up against the mountains in a SW to NE manner but is more oriented W to E. And, it has been moving steadily northward on subsequent runs of the NAM. That's not good for lots of us, given the general NW trend that we are accustomed to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Fortunately, it turns to solid snow for two-thirds of NC by hour 57 on the 12K NAM. Once the precipitation turns over to snow, it appears that it never goes back, at least in NC zones of this 12Z run of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainmusic Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Someone will probably get close to a foot on this NAM run... 15" and still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted February 18, 2020 Author Share Posted February 18, 2020 Still looks nice for MBY but it’s clear we have a ways to go. Good to see it not deviate from the main idea of the system at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Greenville gets over a foot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Given how often systems this winter have been wetter than expected or at a bare minimal not drier than expected, I think I would lean toward the wetter ones if I was in nc. This idea that the euro is never wrong or is right the vast majority of the time is bizarre to me. I often wonder if the developers of it invented memory swipes too because it seems like people always forget that it's wrong quite a lot too. That being said, it might be right this time but I wouldn't favor it vs the weight of all the other guidance. 33 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: There’s a ton of evaporational cooling that occurs so you don’t need that. It’s the same thing that happened in the upstate two weeks ago. I agree..not sure where this idea it wont be cold enough in nc is coming from. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just like I thought, someone got over a foot according to the NAMSent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Just like I thought, someone got over a foot according to the NAM Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk That would certainly shut up Eyewall for RDU. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Welp... Just got screw zoned on that one. Dropped from 5 inches mostly snow on last run to under 2 inches of wet slop... Sincerely hope it is over-amped and thus too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Earlier onset for northern NC too. Could make for a messy commute home for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Warm nose on the NAM and it is good at sniffing those out. Central NC went from mostly snow to a lot of sleet. Trending the wrong way. How on earth do we get sleet at RDU with this sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Wow the 3k NAM drops over 2-3 inches of sleet from East of Monroe up toward Fayetteville 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, SnowDawg said: Welp... Just got screw zoned on that one. Dropped from 5 inches mostly snow on last run to under 2 inches of wet slop... Sincerely hope it is over-amped and thus too warm. Yep..nam is super aggressive with that warm nose at 750 to 825mb.....would screw pretty much all of the upstate and even into nc/Charlotte for a good while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, FLweather said: That would certainly shut up Eyewall for RDU. That would be fine by me but I seriously doubt these numbers verify. If we get a dusting that is a win this year though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, FLweather said: That would certainly shut up Eyewall for RDU. Does that graphic include sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Wow the 3k NAM drops over 2-3 inches of sleet from East of Monroe up toward Fayetteville Which would hang around forever as we all know sleet does 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 anyone who has tracked nc/sc storms knows this is a warning shot from the nam. 3k showing that stout of a warm nose and it has only trended stronger. this is a sleet storm for upstate to clt and if i were in rdu i'd be concerned as well. we all know how this usually ends up. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Half a foot of snow has fallen by 0z from roughly Huntersville to Morrisville and it’s still coming down hard at hour 60 on the 3K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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