griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Is the NAM an outlier here folks? Also, does it tend to overdo the precip? So far, the precip looks very uniform on the NAM which is nice to see. I've seen it in recent years actually not be as heavy with precip as it's reputation would suggest. At any rate, I think the globals are too light with precip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, griteater said: So far, the precip looks very uniform on the NAM which is nice to see. I've seen it in recent years actually not be as heavy with precip as it's reputation would suggest. At any rate, I think the globals are too light with precip Grit, that warm nose the nam is painting for Charlotte scares me. Seen this movie before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 I think we are starting to move into the time range where the globals aren't as useful. I'd say a safe bet right now is somewhere between what the NAM and the globals are showing, and hope the trends over time move things closer towards the NAM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, griteater said: So far, the precip looks very uniform on the NAM which is nice to see. I've seen it in recent years actually not be as heavy with precip as it's reputation would suggest. At any rate, I think the globals are too light with precip Thanks Grit. Looks like the broadcast mets are sticking with the globals. Guessing in another 24hrs (inside 60hrs) the NAM would suggest a better handle vs the globals maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, SnowDawg said: I think we are starting to move into the time range where the globals aren't as useful. I'd say a safe bet right now is somewhere between what the NAM and the globals are showing, and hope the trends over time move things closer towards the NAM. great minds? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Brad Panovich is doing a live stream now and just said he does not like the placement of the high, either. He says he wants it further east and the low further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Anyone got the Bufkit for the 0z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 ICON is about to go boom, as best I can tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: Grit, that warm nose the nam is painting for Charlotte scares me. Seen this movie before... It should, and if you live here the rest of your life, it will scare you until you are in your grave Sfc low track is excellent. 850 low track is a little north of ideal for us...but it worked out there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 17 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Eh, more like highway 70 Yeah, it rides 70 east of Raleigh. Either way its a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Both the 1973 and 1989 coastal N.C. snowstorms featured high pressure near South Dakota/Iowa. FYI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 I don’t care where the high is if I’ve got an isothermal column and frontogenesis like this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainmusic Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 ICON is slow in bringing the freezing temperatures in, but is much more in line with the current NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: Both the 1973 and 1989 coastal N.C. snowstorms featured high pressure near South Dakota/Iowa. FYI. 89 had record shattering cold, not quite same set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 9 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: It starts snowing in N Ga/Upstate SC at hour 60 and there are still flurries flying at hour 78. At the end of the run, eastern NC is still getting hammered A bit of a frustrating run though as if not for a warm nose at 750 to 825mb it would be a lot more snow in north ga and the lower half of the upstate. Probably would be a zone of sleet but whether its able to actually accumulate is questionable. Maybe if there is decent lift and precip rates it could cause a changeover sooner than expected. Cant go without saying though, there is another multiple inch rain event preceding it for ga and sc. Just unreal how much precip we are getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: ICON is about to go boom, as best I can tell. Looks pretty similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Not quite the NAM event but still a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: 89 had record shattering cold, not quite same set up The point being that cold transport can work. 1989 cold followed days after the snow began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 0z ICON looks good! Anyone got a Snowmap other than the one from TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, BullCityWx said: Not quite the NAM event but still a good run Great trends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 It gives GSP about .50 in sleet too Not sure why it says snow....ugh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: The point being that cold transport can work. 1989 cold followed days after the snow began. But it was record cold in place PRIOR to the snow, which makes all the difference down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, BullCityWx said: Not quite the NAM event but still a good run I think this is a reasonable look at what will happen, although for most, I'd be hesitant to go all in on 3"+. 1-3" seems reasonable for Greensboro, and I'd lean more towards the low end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 The total QPF on the NAM seems a bit excessive... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, BullCityWx said: Not quite the NAM event but still a good run I imagine snow would be more widespread than what the icon shows. It did poorly capturing the surface cooling from last weekend's snow. For example, Guaranteed there would be a faster changeover in the upstate than what its showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Lookout said: A bit of a frustrating run though as if not for a warm nose at 750 to 825mb it would be a lot more snow in north ga and the lower half of the upstate. Probably would be a zone of sleet but whether its able to actually accumulate is questionable. Maybe if there is decent lift and precip rates it could cause a changeover sooner than expected. Cant go without saying though, there is another multiple inch rain event preceding it for ga and sc. Just unreal how much precip we are getting. It gives GSP about .50 in sleet and a couple inches of snow. I don't mind sleet, it makes the sled go faster 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 What needs to happen to get rid of that warm nose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: I imagine snow would be more widespread than what the icon shows. It did poorly capturing the surface cooling from last weekend's snow. For example, Guaranteed there would be a faster changeover in the upstate than what its showing. Yep, I think you’re right too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 So I wanted to make a few comments about the location of the surface high. As Eric Webb astutely noted in his composite posted on a previous page, the climo location for the surface high during Miller A storms is over the midwest (Iowa, etc.). Ideally, we would have dual surface highs...one to our north and another to our northwest. But there's more to it than just the position and strength of the surface high. Here's a comparison of this week's storm to the Jan 3, 2002 storm.....the surface high is located in a similar position. Also, the source region for the cold air coming out of Canada is good in both images...it's actually colder for our storm this week. However, look across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico where we have a much stronger subtropical ridge in place. This ridge is offering a much stronger resistance in terms of allowing the cold air to sink south out of the high. Accordingly, note how the heights are lower over the Carolinas during the Jan 2002 storm (558 dam in 2002 vs. 567 this week). Everything else equal, heights = temperatures aloft. Lower heights support lower temperatures aloft. On the flip side, the tighter temperature gradient this week, could allow for a fantastic clash as warm, moist air collides with the cold air that is sinking south from the mid-atlantic (= heavy frontogenesis and potential for heavy, banded precip). 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 The high NAM totals in previous maps, probably include tomorrow and We’d too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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