Tar Heel Snow Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 We've got about 72 hours to go before we start seeing some precip in our area, we're in NAM range, and I'm seeing a lot of hot threads lately. Let's do the daggum thing. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I believe 0z will be very telling tonight on whether we are heading towards or away from an event... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted February 17, 2020 Author Share Posted February 17, 2020 If only the 3k NAM went out to 84... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said: If only the 3k NAM went out to 84... It was looking similar to the 12k 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Would love to see this bust in the right direction again for north GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLMet84 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I'm sorry if i missed it but is this a cad induced storm? And from what I'm reading north ga outside the mnts won't see much of anything so rooting for you guys in nc/upstate sc to cash in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 GSP EDIT: Sleet was about the same as the snow, but picture won't post....sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, ATLMet84 said: I'm sorry if i missed it but is this a cad induced storm? And from what I'm reading north ga outside the mnts won't see much of anything so rooting for you guys in nc/upstate sc to cash in! I do not think North Georgia is necessarily out of it at all. The discussion has been geared towards SC and NC because those are some of the most avid posters on the forum, however as the NAM 12k shows (obviously take this with a grain of salt), with crashing temperatures, we could see mixed precip in the second half of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 18z GFS ensembles... wow. Mean snowfall has went way up for everyone it looks like. I am way more worried about this trending too far north than too dry at this point. Even for places like spartanburg,charlotte, fayetteville. Greensboro to Raleigh has to be feeling good right now. Odds of them getting a major winter storm are well above 50%, imo. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, burrel2 said: 18z GFS ensembles... wow. Mean snowfall has went way up for everyone it looks like. Does it have that warm nose? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 18z GFS suitesSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Much more support. Trends looking better today. Could they get better or worse. We will find out in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 GSP EDIT: Sleet was about the same as the snow, but picture won't post....sighWhat site you use for that graph?Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Ill take that all day^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Every single member with at least an inch IMBY and 14 members with 2+. I'm nervous seeing that look still this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 What does 18z ECMWF look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 17 minutes ago, LibertyStorm said: We just got NAM’d One thing - though none of the snowmaps are perfect, the Trop Tidbit snow maps that have sleet included give a way overinflated view - I wouldn’t recommend posting those in particular 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 45 minutes ago, Alfoman said: I do not think North Georgia is necessarily out of it at all. The discussion has been geared towards SC and NC because those are some of the most avid posters on the forum, however as the NAM 12k shows (obviously take this with a grain of salt), with crashing temperatures, we could see mixed precip in the second half of the event. I was hoping we could get the snow line down to I-20 but that seems like wishing. At least I can chase for some snow with it being so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 How does the 18z EURO and EPS Look? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: How does the 18z EURO and EPS Look? Not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 43 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 18z GFS suites Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Well, honestly that's pretty anemic IMO. Two members seem to make up the mean (separate of eastern nc) . Coming around perhaps but I wouldn't say the GFS caved. The NAM is the NAM, but it's showing the real deal by itself at the moment. If it hangs tough through tomorrow showing a similar wet/cold solution I'll climb back up the cliff. Hopefully it'll survive past about 9:30 pm though, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 19 minutes ago, griteater said: One thing - though none of the snowmaps are perfect, the Trop Tidbit snow maps that have sleet included give a way overinflated view - I wouldn’t recommend posting those in particular Yeah here the Kuchera….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 The 12z Ukmet sure does seem suspect now. Amazing how far apart it is with other modeling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 22 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah here the Kuchera….. Still snowing at end of this NAM run...for most of NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Euro ticks back a bit on QPF. It remains to be not very impressed with this setup. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Euro ticks back a bit on QPF. It remains to be not very impressed with this setup. Until the ECMWF gets on board I will be very skeptical. Never bet against it, I have seen so many instances of it being right over all the other models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 24 HR QPF and snow total. Hopefully it's in the lower half of its own ensemble suite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Until the ECMWF gets on board I will be very skeptical. Never bet against it, I have seen so many instances of it being right over all the other models. I would tend to agree, but with the previous weekends event it was also paltry with QPF from like day 4 until inside the last 24 hrs. The only reason I'm willing to be at least somewhat hopeful even with it showing that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 I think our SREF plumes might be going up 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: 24 HR QPF and snow total. Hopefully it's in the lower half of its own ensemble suite. That's pretty bad. It's really hard to get excited about this when the euro/ukmet combo says this is a non-event. But if the short range models continue to honk the horn consistently I don't know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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