HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 54 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The ICON is about as worthless as tits on a rattlesnake, or a screen door on a submarine. I know... but someone here has to kill the last shred of hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 NWS seems pretty bullish on snow potential for southern MN. Mentioned the possibility of thundersnow and a narrow band of warning criteria snow. 1.6” final call imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2020 Author Share Posted February 16, 2020 You know it's not the best winter when it is raining north of the 540 line in February. We aren't even talking a fall or spring month. The reason why is because of too much warmth in the low levels, even though it is pretty cold aloft especially as you get up toward the 700-500 mb layer. That layer is part of the calculation as we are talking about 1000-500 mb thicknesses of course. So it results in rain in this instance despite the 540 line placement and is another reminder about the importance of forecast soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 12z CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 12z CMC This same general map zoom with Kuchera ratio is available from pivotal weather. Kuchera maps aren't always great but they're much better than the coarse 10:1 maps from Tropical Tidbits that don't separate out mixed precip. Would recommend posting the pivotal maps for the GEM and RGEM, as well as the other models. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 HRRR and other models like RGEM are keeping sfc temps around the freezing mark and upper air temps below freezing across the GTA tom night into Tues morning. This would increase the chances of accumulating snowfall esp north of 401. Preliminary call 2". However, it all comes down to temps as we're riding the thin line here. HRRR has ~4" by Tues afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 9 hours ago, Snowstorms said: HRRR and other models like RGEM are keeping sfc temps around the freezing mark and upper air temps below freezing across the GTA tom night into Tues morning. This would increase the chances of accumulating snowfall esp north of 401. Preliminary call 2". However, it all comes down to temps as we're riding the thin line here. HRRR has ~4" by Tues afternoon. Looks better for a little front end snow than it did 24 hours ago. I'd go with 2" as well before the changeover. Such a warm winter but we're weaseling snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Sunny and not a cloud in the sky. Might see a passing mood flake or FRDZ later today. This thing vanished like a fart in the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Had a thin glaze from freezing rain early this morning. Just regular rain now though as we've warmed above freezing. About 30 miles to the north in Milledgeville there's a report of 1.3" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 It started with light snow around 9am, but now we're getting big wet flakes. Probably already half an inch down. I was expecting very little with this storm because of the northerly track and mixing with rain, but if it keeps this up very long we're going to get more than expected. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 It's still snowing in Dubuque, so Madison appears to be in a pretty decent spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 29 minutes ago, Luftfeuchtigkeit said: It started with light snow around 9am, but now we're getting big wet flakes. Probably already half an inch down. I was expecting very little with this storm because of the northerly track and mixing with rain, but if it keeps this up very long we're going to get more than expected. Good to hear from a Madison area poster. Looks like you could have used an advisory on this. HRRR has been indicating 4-6” of snow for awhile for much of SC Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 55 minutes ago, Luftfeuchtigkeit said: It started with light snow around 9am, but now we're getting big wet flakes. Probably already half an inch down. I was expecting very little with this storm because of the northerly track and mixing with rain, but if it keeps this up very long we're going to get more than expected. I was just thinking to myself looking at radar and out the windows at work that this has the look of an overachiever. Go figure, since totals with this event were not expected to be that impressive to begin with. Why can't we ever get an anticipated big dog that verifies at or above even the high end of guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 6 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: Looks better for a little front end snow than it did 24 hours ago. I'd go with 2" as well before the changeover. Such a warm winter but we're weaseling snowfall. This winter is up there with 2011-12 and 2001-02 in terms of warmth. Well deserved after all the garbage winters we've been through in the last decade or two. Majority of the precip should fall tonight. Temps won't be an issue and any changeover will only be light drizzle tom morning. Wouldn't be surprised to see 3" across much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I just got back from running errands - despite the mid-February sun angle and midday timing, it's coming down hard enough to accumulate pretty well out there. I measured 2.3" when I got back home. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2020 Author Share Posted February 17, 2020 Actually getting some flakes here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 47 minutes ago, Luftfeuchtigkeit said: I just got back from running errands - despite the mid-February sun angle and midday timing, it's coming down hard enough to accumulate pretty well out there. I measured 2.3" when I got back home. What part of town are you in? I'm far west side near Mineral Point & the Beltline. @madwx, what are you seeing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: What part of town are you in? I'm far west side near Mineral Point & the Beltline. @madwx, what are you seeing? Accumulating pretty nicely out there. About 2". Roads vary between snow covered and slushy/wet. Looks like a couple more hours before warmer air moves in and rates drop off and we switch to drizzle/rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 13 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: What part of town are you in? I'm far west side near Mineral Point & the Beltline. @madwx, what are you seeing? SW by Raymond Rd and Verona Rd. 3.2" now. I think 4-6" is in the bag. Congrats RGEM on consistently showing higher amounts for us. Most of the other models showed a mix and/or main precip farther north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, Luftfeuchtigkeit said: SW by Raymond Rd and Verona Rd. 3.2" now. I think 4-6" is in the bag. Congrats RGEM on consistently showing higher amounts for us. Most of the other models showed a mix and/or main precip farther north. It looks like a compromise between the GEM/RGEM depiction and the main global models will turn out correct. If GRB ends up we’ll below their expectation then the GEM/RGEM will have won this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 It's coming down pretty good here too. I would say at least 2-3" rn going by the sidewalks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Man, what a great daytime snowstorm for my day off. 3.9", 7 tenths in the last hour. Total depth is about 12 inches, deepest so far this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Managing some large non accumulating aggregates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Sunny and not a cloud in the sky. Might see a passing mood flake or FRDZ later today. This thing vanished like a fart in the wind.Glad it stayed well south. Need the ice to remain driveable by truck at unofficial Pout this week. Conditions were crap three weeks ago but things have frozen nicely since.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 big flakes here. looks like the last push before the mixed precipitation starts to move in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 18 minutes ago, kevlon62 said: Glad it stayed well south. Need the ice to remain driveable by truck at unofficial Pout this week. Conditions were crap three weeks ago but things have frozen nicely since. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Heading up to Eelpout in Walker? Please pick up your trash, they’ve had big issues with people leaving literal tons of garbage out on the ice. I know slush on the lakes was a problem from the deep snowcover we’ve had since November, never developed a thick ice pack, glad to hear it’s gotten better. Looks like we may actually get a nice round of mod/heavy snow just in time for the evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Managed a DAB, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Sleeting pretty good all of the sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Huge flakes now, 4.6" total. Need to get out and do the hard work of shoveling the driveway before my wife gets home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 4 hours ago, Snowstorms said: This winter is up there with 2011-12 and 2001-02 in terms of warmth. Well deserved after all the garbage winters we've been through in the last decade or two. Majority of the precip should fall tonight. Temps won't be an issue and any changeover will only be light drizzle tom morning. Wouldn't be surprised to see 3" across much of the area. Fundamental theme of this winter...2-3" of stat padding snow tonight that'll all be washed away by tomorrow afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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