dryslot Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 GYX is awfully bullish. I'm expecting half of that. I like 2" of snow followed by 1/2" of sleet & 6 hours of drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: GYX is awfully bullish. I'm expecting half of that. I like 2" of snow followed by 1/2" of sleet & 6 hours of drizzle. Gyx is usually bullish w weenie maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Nammy likes Southern CNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Seems like their bullishness is based on .5 to .8 QPF and warmer air aloft that holds off till the very end. Do you think it’s going to warm sooner or do you think the QPF will not be as high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 I think in terms of bullishness you’re probably referring to the southern most to your counties in New Hampshire. Seems like a growing consensus for a good snowfall in the lakes region and areas north of Concord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 4-6" in Nashua...hard sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Seems like their bullishness is based on .5 to .8 QPF and warmer air aloft that holds off till the very end. Do you think it’s going to warm sooner or do you think the QPF will not be as high? They seem based on a best case scenario. I’d cut 25% across the board in S NH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: They seem based on a best case scenario. I’d cut 25% across the board in S NH .5 qpf all snow north of CON is best case? That would be 4-6. Seems like best case is 8”for Brian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Sell everything everywhere everytime 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 No idea who's said what so all credit conferred ... Re this 12z NAM: 48047989456 -0511 051110 49000003 54051986356 -1613 023507 45010000 These particular numerals bold'ed are the 980, 900, and 800 mb level temperatures over Logan off the old standard 'FOUS'. Their interpretation do not match the ptype graphics, which show predominately rain after a brief pulse of snow, S of the VT/NH border. These profiles would scalp/IP moderately, then flip to isothermal 0 C snow and with the synopsis featuring a system that is stretched longitudinally biased that should limit the very high elevation intrusion of warm layer; I do not believe liquid falls (only) as near as the western subburbs of the city of Boston, where is either freezing rain in that ~ .5 QPF but is more likely big aggregates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Sell everything everywhere everytime We should name your different personalities. I think this one is TD, Total Debbie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: .5 qpf all snow north of CON is best case? That would be 4-6. Seems like best case is 8”for Brian I think that map is fine here, 6" is a good number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 22 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Gyx is usually bullish w weenie maps Depends on who's doing them, I've seen plenty of bullish BOX maps too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 I’m all for seeing a high number in Nashua. Hey let’s take em up more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: No idea who's said what so all credit conferred ... Re this 12z NAM: 48047989456 -0511 051110 49000003 54051986356 -1613 023507 45010000 These particular numerals bold'ed are the 980, 900, and 800 mb level temperatures over Logan off the old standard 'FOUS'. Their interpretation do not match the ptype graphics, which show predominately rain after a brief pulse of snow, S of the VT/NH border. These profiles would scalp/IP moderately, then flip to isothermal 0 C snow and with the synopsis featuring a system that is stretched longitudinally biased that should limit the very high elevation intrusion of warm layer; I do not believe liquid falls (only) as near as the western subburbs of the city of Boston, where is either freezing rain in that ~ .5 QPF but is more likely big aggregates Soundings agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 31 minutes ago, dryslot said: I think that map is fine here, 6" is a good number. The stat-padder produced 3.4" from 0.22" LE. If dendrite growth is decent we could double that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Just now, tamarack said: The stat-padder produced 3.4" from 0.22" LE. If dendrite growth is decent we could double that. I received 3" in that one, The year of nickels and dimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said: GYX is awfully bullish. I'm expecting half of that. I like 2" of snow followed by 1/2" of sleet & 6 hours of drizzle. I’m with you. There’s a subtle warming trend on the GFS. I think the mesos are full of shit. Easy to get duped into believing they’re seeing some CAD the globals aren’t, but there is *NO* CAD with this setup. I think temps will be warm throughout for us. Tomorrow we hit 40 and BL temps struggle to fall overnight as low level WAD continues and overcast rolls in Wednesday evening, and then 850’s warm all day Thursday. Poor ratios —> white rain—>sleet mix to mid 30’s drizzle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I’m with you. There’s a subtle warming trend on the GFS. I think the mesos are full of shit. Easy to get duped into believing they’re seeing some CAD the globals aren’t, but there is *NO* CAD with this setup. I think temps will be warm throughout for us. Tomorrow we hit 40 and BL temps struggle to fall overnight as low level WAD continues and overcast rolls in Wednesday evening, and then 850’s warm all day Thursday. Poor ratios —> white rain—>sleet mix to mid 30’s drizzle. Yea, there is no high this time. Not taking the cheese on this garbage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2020 Author Share Posted February 11, 2020 Yeah I'm selling any snow amounts above 2" south of NH border....save maybe N of rt 2 and west of 190...basically the N ORH county to Franklin county area which I could see doing a little better. It just looks too marginal in the midlevels and this is not a big omega bomb thump....you really want to see a high to the north to really up that ML fronto and have the "running into a brick wall" type look. There will be a little ribbon of probably low end warning just north of the changeover spot...again, congrats dendrite....pretty much that area I could see getting a quick 6-7". If you count the IVT/moosefart upslope, then powderfreak's area will prob get warning snows too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 I was just looking over the water temps all around south of Long Island, no wonder all of these systems end up warmer than forecasted with little snow or sleet to start. Low to mid 40s this late into winter is not helping.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Pennies and nickels... 2.5" for my hood seems reasonable A bit o sleet in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 0.0000000 south of 90. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 i like 1-2” in Nashua of shmeg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 0.0000000 south of 90. Next lol didn’t you say there is no “Next?” It’s over right? 2nd half of Feb and March going to be like 2012 right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Rev is a beaten man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Rev is a beaten man Not at all. I just realized several weeks ago it was over for us. Internally, I can deal with a snowless Jan-Feb much better this way than holding out some silly false hope of a big Bomb happening in a pattern setup like 2012. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 muthafawcas better give me 3-4" to make this event worth it. coming in at night which helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 you're probably good for +/- an inch for the thurs event. But it all gets washed away anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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