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No idea who's said what so all credit conferred ...

Re this 12z NAM:

48047989456 -0511 051110 49000003   
54051986356 -1613 023507 45010000

These particular numerals bold'ed are the 980, 900, and 800 mb level temperatures over Logan off the old standard 'FOUS'.  Their interpretation do not match the ptype graphics, which show predominately rain after a brief pulse of snow, S of the VT/NH border.  These profiles would scalp/IP moderately, then flip to isothermal 0 C snow and with the synopsis featuring a system that is stretched longitudinally biased  that should limit the very high elevation intrusion of warm layer; I do not believe liquid falls (only) as near as the western subburbs of the city of Boston, where is either freezing rain in that ~ .5 QPF but is more likely big aggregates

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No idea who's said what so all credit conferred ...

Re this 12z NAM:


48047989456 -0511 051110 49000003   
54051986356 -1613 023507 45010000

These particular numerals bold'ed are the 980, 900, and 800 mb level temperatures over Logan off the old standard 'FOUS'.  Their interpretation do not match the ptype graphics, which show predominately rain after a brief pulse of snow, S of the VT/NH border.  These profiles would scalp/IP moderately, then flip to isothermal 0 C snow and with the synopsis featuring a system that is stretched longitudinally biased  that should limit the very high elevation intrusion of warm layer; I do not believe liquid falls (only) as near as the western subburbs of the city of Boston, where is either freezing rain in that ~ .5 QPF but is more likely big aggregates

Soundings agree

nam_2020021106_051_42.64--70.89.png

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1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

GYX is awfully bullish. I'm expecting half of that. I like 2" of snow followed by 1/2" of sleet & 6 hours of drizzle.

I’m with you. There’s a subtle warming trend on the GFS. I think the mesos are full of shit. Easy to get duped into believing they’re seeing some CAD the globals aren’t, but there is *NO* CAD with this setup. I think temps will be warm throughout for us. Tomorrow we hit 40 and BL temps struggle to fall overnight as low level WAD continues and overcast rolls in Wednesday evening, and then 850’s warm all day Thursday. Poor ratios —> white rain—>sleet mix to mid 30’s drizzle. 

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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I’m with you. There’s a subtle warming trend on the GFS. I think the mesos are full of shit. Easy to get duped into believing they’re seeing some CAD the globals aren’t, but there is *NO* CAD with this setup. I think temps will be warm throughout for us. Tomorrow we hit 40 and BL temps struggle to fall overnight as low level WAD continues and overcast rolls in Wednesday evening, and then 850’s warm all day Thursday. Poor ratios —> white rain—>sleet mix to mid 30’s drizzle. 

Yea, there is no high this time.

Not taking the cheese on this garbage.

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Yeah I'm selling any snow amounts above 2" south of NH border....save maybe N of rt 2 and west of 190...basically the N ORH county to Franklin county area which I could see doing a little better.

It just looks too marginal in the midlevels and this is not a big omega bomb thump....you really want to see a high to the north to really up that ML fronto and have the "running into a brick wall" type look. There will be a little ribbon of probably low end warning just north of the changeover spot...again, congrats dendrite....pretty much that area I could see getting a quick 6-7".

If you count the IVT/moosefart upslope, then powderfreak's area will prob get warning snows too.

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