ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Figured I'd start this because we're inside of 3 days and we need a place to discuss this storm where it won't get drowned in the negativity of SNE's snow drought. Looks like another storm mainly for NNE, but can't entirely rule out a thump in SNE....I'm betting against that for now given the synoptic setup of no good high to our north, but still a couple days for this to trend. Here's the problem for the colder solution highlight in green on the map in Quebec.....you can see that little wedge of low pressure sneaking in at the perfect time between our two high pressures. If that was just one large bridged high, probably looking at an almost forum-wide warning event...or at least high end advisory to low end warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 12z GFS looks a bit mixy here at the end of the event like the euro. I’m not sure it’s warning criteria but a solid advisory is looking likely. Quarters and dimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 High end advisory seems to be in the cards for up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 CMC thumps hard right down to the pike or even a bit south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 Ukie trended quite a bit colder than 00z. Prob advisory snows for a chunk of MA...maybe N CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Ukie trended quite a bit colder than 00z. Prob advisory snows for a chunk of MA...maybe N CT. Nice, hope the Euro follows. Good trends for at least the NSNE peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: High end advisory seems to be in the cards for up this way. Euro was near warning and would not take much more to be so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie trended quite a bit colder than 00z. Prob advisory snows for a chunk of MA...maybe N CT. I’m expecting to be disappointed here.... but it’s close enough to a thump even here on some guidance it’s worth keeping an eye on. If it doesn’t happen, nothing lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Euro was near warning and would not take much more to be so. Saw that earlier, We will see if that holds or gets better the next few runs, Everything else looks in the 4-6" or so range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m expecting to be disappointed here.... but it’s close enough to a thump even here on some guidance it’s worth keeping an eye on. If it doesn’t happen, nothing lost. Yeah I'm keeping expectations low to the northwest of you here....but I'm gonna track it regardless. I'd feel pretty comfortable for something plowable if we can get 30-40 miles of S trend in the next 36 hours....or the equivalent of...could also get a colder trend without necessarily coming south the whole 30 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ogmios Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 I tend to see the ICON sometimes as the predictor for the EURO with the track just to my south. Currently only marginal cold air is available on all models so I will not be surprised that either it retains or we see marginal NW trends with the same results of slightly above freezing with a changeover to rain or mix. My guess is only 2-4" of wet snow but maybe even 5 inland with the lower end towards the southern coast". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Looks decent up here. Too bad you can't lock anything in until 3hrs before the start of the event. In that regard, still a long way to go. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 I tend to use the ICON to wipe my a ss with it when i'm out in the woods and that model is not a precursor to any other guidance and quite useless actually. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ogmios said: I tend to see the ICON sometimes as the predictor for the EURO with the track just to my south. Currently only marginal cold air is available on all models so I will not be surprised that either it retains or we see marginal NW trends with the same results of slightly above freezing with a changeover to rain or mix. My guess is only 2-4" of wet snow but maybe even 5 inland with the lower end towards the southern coast". I think the Ukie dictates more where the Euro "may" be going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: I think the Ukie dictates more where the Euro "may" be going. Yeah that's the only real predictor of the Euro I've ever seen in terms of another model foreshadowing the Euro....and even that relationship is not overly reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 41 minutes ago, dryslot said: High end advisory seems to be in the cards for up this way. finally starting to look more like winter around these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that's the only real predictor of the Euro I've ever seen in terms of another model foreshadowing the Euro....and even that relationship is not overly reliable. And at times there both at other ends too, So you can't just say when it comes out that.s where the Euro is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, Lava Rock said: finally starting to look more like winter around these parts May even be able to ride local. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: May even be able to ride local. casco trails back open. Reports say "good", but some water bars. Rode andover yesterday over to Mexico. Not as good as I thought it would be. Only one small section groomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, Lava Rock said: casco trails back open. Reports say "good", but some water bars. Rode andover yesterday over to Mexico. Not as good as I thought it would be. Only one small section groomed. Arnold trails system was groomed, Rangeley's was not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Arnold trails system was groomed, Rangeley's was not.Wonder what rangeleys excuse was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, Lava Rock said: 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Arnold trails system was groomed, Rangeley's was not. Wonder what rangeleys excuse was I mean the snow ended overnight so i don't know but it sucked on the way back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 We thump on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 Euro did tick colder/south a bit...not a big change though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Couple inches before the changeover.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, ineedsnow said: We thump on the Euro If you define like 2 inches as a thump....then yes. Maybe it is in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If you define like 2 inches as a thump....then yes. Maybe it is in this winter. We thud 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ogmios Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Euro ticked south and upped the snowfall 4-7" in Southern Nova Scotia: basically Halifax and Valley south until Yarmouth and Shelburne County coastlines only due to mixing concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Euro looked N with IP axis comparing hr 72 to previous tho S VT NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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