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Feb 9-10 Stat padder


HoarfrostHubb
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00z HRRR and 3-km NAM give my hood a bit over an inch of QPF, wow! HRRR ends it as a bit of light rain tomorrow midday after a solid 8-10" dump, but I find that the HRRR tends to be a little warm here at the surface a lot. The 3-km NAM does a better job with the thermals, but the HRRR tends to be more realistic with QPF as the former loves to over forecast QPF over the mountain peaks. The HRRR sometimes does too, but not nearly to the extent that the 3-km NAM does. The NAM gets me to 33° F briefly tomorrow around 21z, whereas HRRR gets me to 37° F. I may not even crack 32° F.

I can do well with SWFEs that stay snow and feature a mean wind flow that's a bit west of SW in the 900-600 mb layer as that direction provides a greater cross barrier component across the southern Greens. If it's more south of SW, the southern Adirondacks tend to do better while I get skunked.

I'll set my over/under at 6". Lets see how I do.

I had 0.6" of fluff today on 0.03" of liquid. 

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4 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

00z HRRR and 3-km NAM give my hood a bit over an inch of QPF, wow! HRRR ends it as a bit of light rain tomorrow midday after a solid 8-10" dump, but I find that the HRRR tends to be a little warm here at the surface a lot. The 3-km NAM does a better job with the thermals, but the HRRR tends to be more realistic with QPF as the former loves to over forecast QPF over the mountain peaks. The HRRR sometimes does too, but not nearly to the extent that the 3-km NAM does. The NAM gets me to 33° F briefly tomorrow around 21z, whereas HRRR gets me to 37° F. I may not even crack 32° F.

I can do well with SWFEs that stay snow and feature a mean wind flow that's a bit west of SW in the 900-600 mb layer as that direction provides a greater cross barrier component across the southern Greens. If it's more south of SW, the southern Adirondacks tend to do better while I get skunked.

I'll set my over/under at 6". Lets see how I do.

I had 0.6" of fluff today on 0.03" of liquid. 

Most of the Meso model runs today gave a shot at advisory snows for much of NW MA and S VT.  You are in a great spot for this.  I'm looking forward to see what sunrise brings.

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