Day 4 Enhanced Risk -- Deep South

[Bob's Burgers]

Pretty large Enhanced Risk area this far out. Threat includes damaging squall line and supercells capable of all hazards --

 

 

 

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Wednesday (day 4)--central Gulf Coast into the Mid-South...
   A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northeast
   into the Canadian maritimes prior to Wednesday with a mid-level
   ridge remaining over FL/Bahamas.  As a result, a CP airmass will not
   likely not infringe on the central Gulf Coast prior to Wednesday. 
   There is increased agreement in model guidance for the evolution of
   a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough forecast to eject
   northeast from the southern Great Plains into the OH Valley on
   Wednesday into Wednesday night.  Models are in good agreement
   showing a previously stalled front advancing north across the Deep
   South, concurrent with a surface low developing/deepening as it
   moves northeastward from the northwest Gulf Coast and into TN/KY by
   early evening.  Strong to very strong flow fields overspreading a
   destabilizing warm sector (featuring low-mid 60s F dewpoints as far
   north as parts of northern MS/AL) will support the potential for
   organized severe thunderstorms.  In addition to a severe squall
   line, a supercell risk capable of all hazards is currently forecast.
    
   By Thursday (day 5), the ejecting disturbance will likely become
   increasingly displaced from a moist/unstable sector across the
   Southeast.  However, uncertainty is too high to include a potential
   severe area due to thunderstorm evolution/magnitude of
   destabilization and predictability of larger-scale features.  It
   appears severe potential will be minimal by Friday-Sunday (days 6-8)
   as the overall pattern becomes less supportive for thunderstorms
   over the Lower 48.

   ..Smith.. 02/09/2020