Radtechwxman Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Just now, Stebo said: The Euro I believe is too far south with the low, just too wonky with the track with a couple turns east through the day on Wednesday. It is struggling with convection created vorticity and not latching to the main trough ejecting out of the plains itself. Yea it's evolution is definitely odd. I do believe heavier swath could lay somewhere between I70 and I72 but I'm also skeptical of that with marginal temps the more south you get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 5 hours ago, Snownado said: SC or WV? 5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: SC? Why the move? Yes South Carolina and for work 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Time to bank on lake effect! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Man, I do a little work this morning and come back to the “storm canceled” news. Instead of storm threads maybe we simply need a locked sticky with A-L-E-K’s day 5 call so we can save us some time. Sure the dude has bust high all winter but it’s better than the models 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 38 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: as we watch prospects for a phased noteworthy storm follow the season trends to duster city, maybe we can salvage the transient weenie death band for some brief +sn action thursday morning, guidance really hinting at an odd band moving down the lake like a squall line 18 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It's along the Arctic front. 14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: $$$ Arctic front makes Joe's call money and Alek's bust. ORD's loss is our gain. However, seasonal trends dictate that WAA will be stronger than progged and instead a possible 6", Jackstraw and I get contaminated with ZR and IP during the heaviest precip overnight Wed. and get a slopfest, ending with a coating of fluff as temps bottom drops out. Realistically though, the 12km NAM, the Canadian, and the WRFs all agree with the Euro, which puts even me on the north edge of an I-70 storm, which is still good for 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Another issue with the Euro compared to other models is the piece dropping in from Montana which helps kick out the southern stream piece mysteriously weakens in Colorado right as it is about to kick the system out, no other model is doing that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Arctic front makes Joe's call money and Alek's bust. ORD's loss is our gain. However, seasonal trends dictate that WAA will be stronger than progged and instead a possible 6", Jackstraw and I get contaminated with ZR and IP during the heaviest precip overnight Wed. and get a slopfest, ending with a coating of fluff as temps bottom drops out. Realistically though, the 12km NAM, the Canadian, and the WRFs all agree with the Euro, which puts even me on the north edge of an I-70 storm, which is still good for 2-3". Tricky call around I-70 corridor. Very likely what is shown on the snow maps doesn't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Tricky call around I-70 corridor. Very likely what is shown on the snow maps doesn't pan out. True. To be more precise, several models depict just north of I-70 as ground zero, north of contamination. There is also a fairly wide swath of 2-5" north of there. Heck, you're probably good for 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Guess I'll lower my call here to 0.5-1.5" lol. 24hrs ago I was worried my 1-3" call would bust low. Silly me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 It's looking like maybe an inch here. Our snow season was well on track for avg to a bit above avg snowfall, but it has kinda petered out. Hopefully, some others can get something decent from the latest sheared-out system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: It's looking like maybe an inch here. Our snow season was well on track for avg to a bit above avg snowfall, but it has kinda petered out. Hopefully, some others can get something decent from the latest sheared-out system. We'll always have Halloween 2019 lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 30 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: It's looking like maybe an inch here. Our snow season was well on track for avg to a bit above avg snowfall, but it has kinda petered out. Hopefully, some others can get something decent from the latest sheared-out system. Thoughts and prayers appreciated. 2 to 4 seems like a solid bet here. Then we'll see how far east the lake effect band sets up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 18z hrrr is abysmal. But it also has its usual warm bias. Shows rain for a lot of areas into Wed evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: 18z hrrr is abysmal. But it also has its usual warm bias. Shows rain for a lot of areas into Wed evening ketchup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: ketchup 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 18z nam gives me some hope. Warms me to 35 by midday then starts the plunge. Keeps precip all snow. Obviously accumulations will be limited at first with marginal temps and very low ratios but should improve come Wed evening and overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: 18z nam gives me some hope. Warms me to 35 by midday then starts the plunge. Keeps precip all snow. Obviously accumulations will be limited at first with marginal temps and very low ratios but should improve come Wed evening and overnight The dreaded sun angle will hurt daytime accums also. Remember it's Mid Feb not Mid Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: 18z nam gives me some hope. Warms me to 35 by midday then starts the plunge. Keeps precip all snow. Obviously accumulations will be limited at first with marginal temps and very low ratios but should improve come Wed evening and overnight Ratios are not going to be anything special until very early Thursday morning into the day on Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 18z NAM actually came in a little wetter than 12z here, however it has tightened things up on the northern end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 18z NAMs trending downward with snow here. First and final call of 1.2" (with some bonus borderline brief whiteout conditions with the arctic front) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Winter Weather Advisory for Central Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Ratios are not going to be anything special until very early Thursday morning into the day on Thursday. Like with every storm this winter I'm grasping for straws. Probably another dud in the making. Man I miss real winter storms that keep trending well in the short range instead of giving you false hope a few days out then trending back downward 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 18z 3k NAM has almost a 50% reduction of QPF compared to its 12z run for the Detroit area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 IWX issues advisory for 3 to 5 inches across their entire CWA. Quote ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northern Indiana, southwest Michigan and northwest Ohio. * WHEN...From 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Wednesday to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may briefly mix with light freezing rain after midnight Wednesday night for areas along and south of US Highway 24. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 WWAs issued for portions of LOT. Chicago isn't included. 3-6 in NW IN and 2-5 in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 LOT goes advisory from about I-80 south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, IllinoisWedges said: WWAs issued for portions of LOT. Chicago isn't included. 3-6 in NW IN and 2-5 in IL. Officially dubbing this the IWXwx special 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Technical question...Why did LOT issue the advisory for ILX? I won't post the entire wording but I was curious about this. Is it a glitch or is ILX at a retreat this week URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Lincoln IL Issued by National Weather Service Chicago IL 240 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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