Malacka11 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Just now, Hoosier said: Don't be trying to get Malacka's hopes up now. My hopes are currently touring the the ISS. (In all seriousness, I know the chances. I just hope that if I'm overly optimistic about every storm, then when I eventually guess one right I will be remembered as the god of snowstorms ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Still can't get my hopes up with difference between 10:1, Kuchera and snow depth on 0ZNAM 10:1 is greater than Kuchera and snow depth is less than 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Real long duration grinder the farther east you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Snowstorms said: Right over @michsnowfreak's backyard. Lock it in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 00z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Probably one of the best spread the wealth systems all season if it pans out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Probably one of the best spread the wealth systems all season if it pans out. Mt Geos screwzone not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 13 minutes ago, mimillman said: Mt Geos screwzone not happening Does the magnet still apply when someone no longer lives there? Deep questions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 30 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Probably one of the best spread the wealth systems all season if it pans out. Isn't it crazy we are saying things like this literally less than 48 hours before flakes fly. Anyone who pimps out that models are better now needs to look at this winter deeply. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 0Z CMC not so impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 I’m praying this ends up as a last minute heavy hitter. Would love to see a genuine WSW in the Chicago metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 0Z CMC not so impressive. It’s a step better than 12z.Ukie still isn’t as nice either, but is much better overall for the region than 12z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Probably one of the best spread the wealth systems all season if it pans out. Heh..no wealth down here. Poverty.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 If the ECMWF and NCEP idea comes to pass, the snow on Thursday stands to be well above average ratios as the cold air mass deepens over the region. Forecast soundings are showing the DGZ increasing to 200 to 300 mb deep, or as deep as 7kft+. GFS in particular has the DGZ almost down to the ground and up to 700 mb. Progged lift is modest during this time but the high ratios would compensate. I'm also becoming more interested in the lake enhancement to lake effect component for northwest Indiana. Very good air mass with 850 mb temps down around -18 to -19C over the lake Thursday night and some of the models slowly pivoting the lake induced convergence axis. Inversion heights near 8kft, 850 mb to lake delta T around 20C and at or above 400 j/kg of lake induced CAPE could support heavy rates with > 20:1 ratios in the band. Edit: Need an@Hoosier take on the lake effect side of things 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 This looks over juiced again. one positive is the cold air support though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: If the ECMWF and NCEP idea comes to pass, the snow on Thursday stands to be well above average ratios as the cold air mass deepens over the region. Forecast soundings are showing the DGZ increasing to 200 to 300 mb deep, or as deep as 7kft+. GFS in particular has the DGZ almost down to the ground and up to 700 mb. Progged lift is modest during this time but the high ratios would compensate. I'm also becoming more interested in the lake enhancement to lake effect component for northwest Indiana. Very good air mass with 850 mb temps down around -18 to -19C over the lake Thursday night and some of the models slowly pivoting the lake induced convergence axis. Inversion heights near 8kft, 850 mb to lake delta T around 20C and at or above 400 j/kg of lake induced CAPE could support heavy rates with > 20:1 ratios in the band. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Aren’t bands in that type of setup pretty narrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Some of the more juicy models are dropping 4"+ here, but gonna ride the usual 1-3" and hope that it works out better than the last system. Hopefully by 18z Wed the models will have converged on their final solution. Might not happen until the 00z Thu suite though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 23 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: If the ECMWF and NCEP idea comes to pass, the snow on Thursday stands to be well above average ratios as the cold air mass deepens over the region. Forecast soundings are showing the DGZ increasing to 200 to 300 mb deep, or as deep as 7kft+. GFS in particular has the DGZ almost down to the ground and up to 700 mb. Progged lift is modest during this time but the high ratios would compensate. I'm also becoming more interested in the lake enhancement to lake effect component for northwest Indiana. Very good air mass with 850 mb temps down around -18 to -19C over the lake Thursday night and some of the models slowly pivoting the lake induced convergence axis. Inversion heights near 8kft, 850 mb to lake delta T around 20C and at or above 400 j/kg of lake induced CAPE could support heavy rates with > 20:1 ratios in the band. Edit: Need an@Hoosier take on the lake effect side of things I have not really dug into it to be honest, because it has looked like the flow would back enough to send it east of here before the better thermodynamics are in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I have not really dug into it to be honest, because it has looked like the flow would back enough to send it east of here before the better thermodynamics are in place. Watch the bands set up between us...wouldn’t be sure whether to laugh or cry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 no euro kuchera map? bummer........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Overnight runs were lame, this is gonna be another dud. Graze job miss south, lull, 1 hour of cotton balls thurs am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A LONG DURATION ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT FOR THE CWA STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ENDING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE IS NOW BETTER OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION.....RC/LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 27 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Overnight runs were lame, this is gonna be another dud. Graze job miss south, lull, 1 hour of cotton balls thurs am. Yep. Good luck Shampoo banana, Indy, and Cleveland. 1-2" here on northern fringe again. Knew models couldnt help but click back SE and weaken some. Always that slight readjustment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Yep. Good luck Shampoo banana, Indy, and Cleveland. 1-2" here on northern fringe again don't disagree with the sharp gradient on the NW edge;"LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST CWA WHERE LESS FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION COULD YIELD AFOREMENTIONED SHARPER CUT-OFF IN PRECIP SHIELD.," as LOT alludes too. But fairly solid 3-5" totals thorugh a good chunk of the metro. Ratio's should help. Areas south and east may get the bonus qpf, but with lower ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 I guess it’s time for me to become emotionally invested in this storm. Please don’t break my heart on the eve of Valentine’s Day. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 6z Euro is back south.Overnight trends have been naso good for around here.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Theres your lame 6Z Euro. When does the EPO start to rage so we can put this winter out of its misery 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Lol, call looking $$$ Sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 ILX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now