A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 GEFS were an improvement and euro appears to be coming in hot this is our moment, attempt 15 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, A-L-E-K said: GEFS were an improvement and euro appears to be coming in hot this is our moment, attempt 15 15th times a charm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 The Euro is definitely amped up, but not too far north... yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 GEFS were an improvement and euro appears to be coming in hot this is our moment, attempt 15. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, Malacka11 said: The Euro is definitely amped up, but not too far north... yet. Stronger, wetter and more phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Euro is likely just about the best phase we can probably get out of this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Euro is likely just about the best phase we can probably get out of this setup. Seems like it's heavier axis is more south though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Still going after that, can't post map because I am driving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 4-7" for metro on kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Seems like it's heavier axis is more south though R/S line was further south. SLP and precip swath were north, due to the better phase. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 The trend is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Definitely like how this one is turning, gives us some room in case it decides to go to shit last minute. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Wow heck of a shot of snow for Northern Ohio. I'll gladly take a snow day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: R/S line was further south. SLP and precip swath were north, due to the better phase. Guessing we would probably see better than 10:1 ratios Wed night with temperatures getting well below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Are there significant timing differences between the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Here is a comparison of some bigger models at 00z Thursday: 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 There is some variance in the 2m temp progs on Wednesday, with the NAM generally being coldest and the Euro on the warmer end. If the warmer solution pans out, then it could cause some of the initial snow to get wasted in some areas... this would be less of an issue with northward extent where later onset of late afternoon/early evening is better timed with the start of the nocturnal cooling cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 The TV station I work for going with an early call of 4 to 6 inches in the greater South Bend area. Could be our biggest snow since the Veterans Day system/lake effect event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 12z Euro = lock it in. Seriously though, if we can get a decent phase, this has the potential to wipe out 2-3 months of misery for many. Getting the pieces to mesh is always tough though, and at this time and juncture, I am going to doubt getting something as clean as the Euro has to offer until we get some more data in. Cautious optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 minute ago, geddyweather said: 12z Euro = lock it in. Seriously though, if we can get a decent phase, this has the potential to wipe out 2-3 months of misery for many. Getting the pieces to mesh is always tough though, and at this time and juncture, I am going to doubt getting something as clean as the Euro has to offer until we get some more data in. Cautious optimism. Personally I'd need a lot more than this to "wipe out" all the misery. Not like we are talking about an 18-24" big dog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 couple of things i do like, really nice looking jet support over the plains as the trough ejects weds, should be quality divergence and a healthy area of snow and an actually cold air mass associated with the northern stream piece, sim radar products with that textbook baroclinic leaf look enjoy it now before flatness reigns at 0z 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Personally I'd need a lot more than this to "wipe out" all the misery. Not like we are talking about an 18-24" big dog. Not yet we aren't 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 53 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Seems like some decently strong convective elements there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: couple of things i do like, really nice looking jet support over the plains as the trough ejects weds, should be quality divergence and a healthy area of snow and an actually cold air mass associated with the northern stream piece, sim radar products with that textbook baroclinic leaf look enjoy it now before flatness reigns at 0z related from LOT Quote The upper pattern for this system is once again a tale of split flow and how it interacts/phases into the eastern half of the country. The closed upper low presently over the northern Baja Peninsula will meander east-northeast into Tuesday before it is forecast to be "picked up" by a strong northern stream jet trough. This trough will be an extension of the polar lobe oriented over Hudson Baby by mid to late week and will have notably cold air associated with it (850 mb temperatures of -25C into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes). The overall jet pattern is especially noteworthy, with a broad jet maximum of 165-185 kt across the Great Lakes into Northeast, which is in the top percentile for this time of year using a 30-year dataset. The broad right entrance region of this jet is what favors interaction between the two troughs and likely phasing that has been consistently forecast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Delayed 1st calls: MKE: 2-3” ORD/Alek: 3-4” DTW: 3-5” CMH: DAB with some white rain (sorry Buckeye, you should move to Cleveland). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 It's like a war between the North and the South. North says PHASE! South says Weak/No PHASE! This set up will tear are Sub apart, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 DVN isn't impressed: The 12Z model suite has shown more phasing than past runs with the upcoming system. The QPF has shifted north, resulting in models producing typical advisory levels of snow over the CWA and the rest of northern IL. However, no model run has really indicated a closed mid level circulation in this phasing, thus the precipitation should be mainly driven by WAA and not be long lasting or heavy in the cold side of the system (not a persistent def zone). While I am on board with increasing pops to likely for this event, we may not have a cold boundary layer over our region, and that could greatly limit any snow accumulation until the Arctic front arrives Wednesday night, and once again, unless there`s reason to draw moisture back over the cold air, that process should shut down the widespread rain/snow. Snow showers may develop with low level lapse rates peaking in the gusty Arctic transition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Duration does look better east of the DVN cwa. In fact, it looks like it could be snowing here for ~24 hours with little/no breaks. It is one of the reasons why I am fairly bullish on getting over 4"... in a short duration storm, there is less time to make up ground if you get off to a bad start. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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