Snowstorms Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, mimillman said: Starting to think you not being on board this one is good for the forum, given your recent track record :p His posts and thoughts are very insightful. Don't shoot the messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 31 minutes ago, mimillman said: Starting to think you not being on board this one is good for the forum, given your recent track record :p Sad but true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Starting to think you not being on board this one is good for the forum, given your recent track record He let the success get to him, and now he’s on the downward spiral.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Things seem to be trending better for now. 6z NAM was a healthy hit for the northern half of IL & GFS was a step closer. Hopefully the good trends can continue throughout the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Have to side with Alek. Even if this system trends well and models light up with pink colors they just haven't verified well this winter. Its like Jerry Taft has control of the atmosphere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Have to side with Alek. Even if this system trends well and models light up with pink colors they just haven't verified well this winter. Its like Jerry Taft has control of the atmosphere Yep. I wont put much stock into a clown map for 4 inches until I have 3.9" otg. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 13 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Yep. I wont put much stock into a clown map for 4 inches until I have 3.9" otg. This does have some positives going for it around the Chicago area. It will be coming Wednesday night with a better airmass in front of it. A good amount of the guidance overnight trended weaker with the northern stream which helped with a snowier trend. Eps snow mean 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: This does have some positives going for it around the Chicago area. It will be coming Wednesday night with a better airmass in front of it. A good amount of the guidance overnight trended weaker with the northern stream which helped with a snowier trend. Eps snow mean Its trending well now, but seasonal trends have shown that we are in the "optimism" section of our cycle of winter grief. Here in about 2 model cycles we will begin denial, followed by bargaining, and anger right before another sheared our piece of garbage wave moves to our south. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 14 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Lock that 7 inches in for lake county Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Its trending well now, but seasonal trends have shown that we are in the "optimism" section of our cycle of winter grief. Here in about 2 model cycles we will begin denial, followed by bargaining, and anger right before another sheared our piece of garbage wave moves to our south. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1-3" first call for here/QC. Snow shall commence at sundown and shut off around 5am. All eyes will be pointing towards the street lights Wednesday evening. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, cyclone77 said: 1-3" first call for here/QC. Snow shall commence at sundown and shut off around 5am. Good call on all accounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 eventually we'll get a lucky bounce and will have an event that does trend to dust inside 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: eventually we'll get a lucky bounce and will have an event that does trend to dust inside 48 hours I assume "does" was supposed to be "doesn't" right 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 The trend on 6z guidance, and now continued on 12z guidance, is for the northern stream to be further west and dig more...which in turn allows for more phasing, and a better/further north storm system. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like if it were to end up a stronger system, this storm looks like it could be a quite long-duration event right? At least for someone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Usual "it's the GFS" caveats apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 About 2 days away from the event, and now fairly good agreement between Euro/GFS/NAM/ICON...Which means this is the scenario that won't occur. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: About 2 days away from the event, and now fairly good agreement between Euro/GFS/NAM/ICON...Which means this is the scenario that won't occur. Fifty miles north, half a foot more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The trend on 6z guidance, and now continued on 12z guidance, is for the northern stream to be further west and dig more...which in turn allows for more phasing, and a better/further north storm system. undeniable with 12z runs feels like a decade since nw, stronger, and phased won the day 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 40 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Usual "it's the GFS" caveats apply. Lake effect/enhancement gets me to about 6 inches deeper into this run. I never bank in lake effect but it gives me hope for an overall decent storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 40 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: About 2 days away from the event, and now fairly good agreement between Euro/GFS/NAM/ICON...Which means this is the scenario that won't occur. My personal favorite is when there is NOT agreement a few days out and the model camps then swap ideas. For example, 4 days out the American models will be north and strong and the foreign models south and weak, then 2 days out the American models will be south and weak and the foreign models will be north and strong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Meanwhile, the UK is trending southeast and weaker. It is not really trying to dig the northern stream west at all. It's just a broad, sweeping dig that doesn't allow anything worth a darn to spin up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Probably the most optimistic I have been all season at this distance about getting 4+, which admittedly is not saying much. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 36 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Meanwhile, the UK is trending southeast and weaker. It is not really trying to dig the northern stream west at all. It's just a broad, sweeping dig that doesn't allow anything worth a darn to spin up. Brother Euro to follow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 46 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Meanwhile, the UK is trending southeast and weaker. It is not really trying to dig the northern stream west at all. It's just a broad, sweeping dig that doesn't allow anything worth a darn to spin up. bummer man...he delivers..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Brother Euro to follow? it would only make sense that the model that was most consistent showing an event would jump ship once a few other models got on board.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: My personal favorite is when there is NOT agreement a few days out and the model camps then swap ideas. For example, 4 days out the American models will be north and strong and the foreign models south and weak, then 2 days out the American models will be south and weak and the foreign models will be north and strong. Seen that happen not just with winter but with potential severe outbreaks and TC track/intensity...craziness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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