CoachLB Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 22 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: I think you're going to be as good if not better than me. The modeled warm nose is right on our doorstep but its been consistently on our doorstep the last 24 hours instead of pushing all the way to the MI border as they've modeled the past couple systems. Hey it's not a big dog but I'll take a jacked up dog this season lol. I also think we could be in for an inch of icing on the cake if we can get a french tickler off the lake late Thursday. Hell if the weather channel can do it I'll go out on a limb a name this storm storm Jackstraw lol. Right. I’m about 25 miles north of I-70. Riding the lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 NAM appears to look marginally better through 18 for N IL. Will see how it continues out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Snownado said: I have a hard time believing 6-8" for Indy with marginal temps. Going to be too much mixing. Does anyone on here think any of the Indy metro has a shot at 6-8" ? I wouldn't bet on it. I wouldn't bet on my call of 6-7. I do think there's a 50/50 chance that northern Marion county could over perform the forecast. I'm just not that sold on the warm nose with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Like 30 hours of snow with little to show for it on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Snowstorms said: Joke of a storm. We'll be lucky to get an inch out of this now. Been a while since we've seen a nice storm (>8") that wasn't a clipper or had mixing issues. January 2019, no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Like 30 hours of snow with little to show for it on the NAM so what happend to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 At 18 on the NAM you can see a scenario were this becomes a respectable storm but instead everything de-amplifies and shears east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 0z nam looked pretty on simulated reflectivity but the amounts are meh. Barely advisory worthy. Low ratios for a good portion of the event could definitely be an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: January 2019, no? Robust clipper with some lake enhancement. Was referring to non-clippers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: At 18 on the NAM you can see a scenario were this becomes a respectable storm but instead everything de-amplifies and shears east. All has to do with that strung out southern wave. We were concerned about the northern wave early on, and in the end it's the southern wave preventing a more organized system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Just now, Snowstorms said: Robust clipper with some lake enhancement. Was referring to non-clippers. I have to say, it doesn't really matter that much to me if a 1 foot+ storm comes from a moisture-laden gulf low or a clipper + enhancement. Not that I don't appreciate bomb-like storms, but lack thereof wouldn't be too much of a source of complaints from moi. But to each their own. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Is it just me, or does the 00Z NAM have less moisture stripping away from convection down south. Seems like a much healthier DEFORMATION band setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Is it just me, or does the 00Z NAM have less moisture stripping away from convection down south. Seems like a much healthier DEFORMATION band setting up. Sure had that look. But totals definitely didn't reflect it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: All has to do with that strung out southern wave. We were concerned about the northern wave early on, and in the end it's the southern wave preventing a more organized system. I think north is an issue too. That lobe swinging around the base of the PV near Hudson Bay is too progressive. If it retrograded, or was even just slower progressing, it might have given the southern wave a chance to go neutral and amplify the sfc low. Instead it just speeds off and washes everything to its south away too. If only we could draw these maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Snownado said: I have a hard time believing 6-8" for Indy with marginal temps. Going to be too much mixing. Does anyone on here think any of the Indy metro has a shot at 6-8" ? Unfortunately I think that Euro map is going to bust for Indy. Everything would have to go perfectly... not only getting all snow, but would need temps to cool off to around freezing quickly enough so that not much is wasted. One or both of the factors of precip type and marginal temps look to be a concern for the Indy area. If anybody has a shot at getting around 6", it would probably be up toward LAF/OKK but I am not really convinced of it there either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: I have to say, it doesn't really matter that much to me if a 1 foot+ storm comes from a moisture-laden gulf low or a clipper + enhancement. Not that I don't appreciate bomb-like storms, but lack thereof wouldn't be too much of a source of complaints from moi. But to each their own. Fair point. Tbh, I appreciate any storm that helps us reach our seasonal average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 The models be sayin"... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 52 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: January 2019, no? People have short memories when it comes to weather. In late January 2019, my area of Toronto received over a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Bring on 60s and 12 hours of sun. #winterdone 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 54 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: I think north is an issue too. That lobe swinging around the base of the PV near Hudson Bay is too progressive. If it retrograded, or was even just slower progressing, it might have given the southern wave a chance to go neutral and amplify the sfc low. Instead it just speeds off and washes everything to its south away too. If only we could draw these maps. Living just south of Hamilton will allow me a greater chance to sneak in a slightly better snowfall. We still have snow on the 95% of the ground so even 5cm to refresh the snow pack before -20C temperatures comes helps. How much of the ground is covered in Toronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Living just south of Hamilton will allow me a greater chance to sneak in a slightly better snowfall. We still have snow on the 95% of the ground so even 5cm to refresh the snow pack before -20C temperatures comes helps. How much of the ground is covered in Toronto? ~2" (5cm) give or take. Latest RDPS has ~3" for Hamilton. Wouldn't expect anything more given recent trends. Heaviest precip will be south of Hamilton and with some lingering dry air, I'd lean closer to 2" for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 RGEM seems to be more bullish stacking snow due to it having colder sfc temps. By 3z tomorrow night it has 28-29 while most guidance is 31ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 0z gfs mostly 2-4in across the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: 0z gfs mostly 2-4in across the board Cutoff a bit too close for my liking, hope it's a bit more south than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 36 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: People have short memories when it comes to weather. In late January 2019, my area of Toronto received over a foot of snow. Right? One of the best snowstorms of my life, for all intents and purposes it was a blizzard. Strong winds, 6-12" across NW Ohio and roads closed for 36 hours. Saturday snowstorm, and the roads were not drivable until Tuesday really 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: Cutoff a bit too close for my liking, hope it's a bit more south than that Current forecast. 0-5in. Should verify 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 hour ago, ILSNOW said: RGEM Winter Wonderland for Chicago Crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 00Z crazy Ukie, lock it in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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