CoalCityWxMan Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: The color scheme on this really threw me off until I read the legend lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 2 hours ago, IWXwx said: Arctic front makes Joe's call money and Alek's bust. ORD's loss is our gain. However, seasonal trends dictate that WAA will be stronger than progged and instead a possible 6", Jackstraw and I get contaminated with ZR and IP during the heaviest precip overnight Wed. and get a slopfest, ending with a coating of fluff as temps bottom drops out. Realistically though, the 12km NAM, the Canadian, and the WRFs all agree with the Euro, which puts even me on the north edge of an I-70 storm, which is still good for 2-3". I live about 50 miles N of I-70 which always puts me in a white knuckle slop zone as opposed to closer to I-70 where it can be a little more cut and dry. I agree the potential for seasonal repeat is there but this one is a bit different than the past few with, albeit coming in later, cold air to work with, the warm nose doesn't have the northward push as the past few systems and we're not going into it with 40-50 degree temps prior. Most of the models have warm 850's to my south some as close as 5 miles lol. 2m temps may be at or just above freezing on the onset but I've noticed the models have been over doing 2m temps the past couple storms. Get some decent heavy precip rates at the onset could negate that along with cloud cover and previous lows in the mid 20's. I also have a classic forecast office battle going on with KIND going 1-3 and IWX going 3-5 two miles to my north. I'm going all in with the short stack this season calling 6-7 through Thursday afternoon. If that all sounds like someone in denial, well yeah lol! Long term this looks like my last hurrah except for a late season long shot big dog so why not 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 13 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Technical question...Why did LOT issue the advisory for ILX? I won't post the entire wording but I was curious about this. Is it a glitch or is ILX at a retreat this week URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Lincoln IL Issued by National Weather Service Chicago IL 240 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020 That kind of thing happens from time to time. I guess LOT is running backup for them today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: I live about 50 miles N of I-70 which always puts me in a white knuckle slop zone as opposed to closer to I-70 where it can be a little more cut and dry. I agree the potential for seasonal repeat is there but this one is a bit different than the past few with, albeit coming in later, cold air to work with, the warm nose doesn't have the northward push as the past few systems and we're not going into it with 40-50 degree temps prior. Most of the models have warm 850's to my south some as close as 5 miles lol. 2m temps may be at or just above freezing on the onset but I've noticed the models have been over doing 2m temps the past couple storms. Get some decent heavy precip rates at the onset could negate that along with cloud cover and previous lows in the mid 20's. I also have a classic forecast office battle going on with KIND going 1-3 and IWX going 3-5 two miles to my north. I'm going all in with the short this season calling 6-7 through Thursday afternoon. If that all sounds like someone in denial, well yeah lol! Long term this looks like my last hurrah except for a late season long shot big dog so why not I bet you will see subzero temps on Fri morning with all of that snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 14 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Technical question...Why did LOT issue the advisory for ILX? I won't post the entire wording but I was curious about this. Is it a glitch or is ILX at a retreat this week URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Lincoln IL Issued by National Weather Service Chicago IL 240 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020 They also did this mornings AFD, I have seen them do the ILX forecast in the past when the Lincoln office has computer issues or other technical difficulties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Snownado said: I bet you will see subzero temps on Fri morning with all of that snowcover. One can dream lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 8 hours ago, Baum said: 5.0" call MBY revised call: 4.8" "STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEPENING DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ) IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO SUPPORT BETTER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS UP AROUND 15-16 TO 1. FOR THIS REASON, ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES (ISOLATED HIGHER) ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COULD REQUIRE THE NEED TO EXPAND THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, " LOT PM AFD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: One can dream lol I may need to come stay at your house. Im in Carmel and not expecting much if anything here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 18z gfs continues lowering snow trend. I think globals are struggling with evolution of the major players. After the WAA wing Wed, gfs really weakens the deformation band to basically nothing overnight and isn't showing much with arctic front. 18z nam on the other hand is more generous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 ILX AFD via LOT Quote Impressive mid level circulation is visible at the Arizona/New Mexico border on water vapor satellite this afternoon, with a steady feed of moisture in the southwest flow ahead of this system. Morning soundings from the lower Mississippi valley (Little Rock with 0.75" PW and over 1" at Fort Worth, TX) indicate the moisture that is headed this direction on Wednesday. A strong upper level jet ahead of the circulation will steer this moisture into the lower Mississippi Valley tonight and into southern and central IL on Wednesday. The best moisture transport is headed toward the Ohio River Valley where the highest QPF will be focused but the 0.75" PWAT axis will get into most of the area. This coupled with decent isentropic lift ahead of the system will promote a rapid expansion of the precipitation shield through the morning into the afternoon. While surface temps may warm above freezing, wet bulbing will support precip changing to snow pretty quickly and then the precip rates should keep temps down. Snow ratios will be on the lower side, but heavy wet snow will be falling in the afternoon and into the evening commute. Meanwhile, a sharp gradient in the rain- snow line will setup somewhere along and north of the I-70 corridor with the higher confidence in the highest numbers along and north of I-72/I-74. We have issued a winter weather advisory for all counties north of I-70 with various start/end times. Some areas in southeast IL could get up to 1" of rain. Precipitation rates will ease a bit Wednesday night, but colder air will filter in from the northwest, and precipitation in the deformation region on the northwest flanks of the surface low will allow the snow to continue Wednesday evening, and with lighter intensity overnight before tapering from southwest to northeast. The I-74 corridor is still favored for the highest totals with a stripe of 4-5" possible, areas in the advisory look receive 2-5" overall. There is still some uncertainty in the cutoff line of heavy rain vs. heavy snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Here’s LOT’s most recent take on things from a couple hours ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 11 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Preliminary call for Toronto 2". Looks like a solid turd of a storm. I'd suggest doing as I am and not wasting precious seconds of your life on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Gassing up my snowblower tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 22 minutes ago, Sciascia said: Here’s LOT’s most recent take on things from a couple hours ago. In the weenie circle of failure 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 2 hours ago, Jackstraw said: I live about 50 miles N of I-70 which always puts me in a white knuckle slop zone as opposed to closer to I-70 where it can be a little more cut and dry. I agree the potential for seasonal repeat is there but this one is a bit different than the past few with, albeit coming in later, cold air to work with, the warm nose doesn't have the northward push as the past few systems and we're not going into it with 40-50 degree temps prior. Most of the models have warm 850's to my south some as close as 5 miles lol. 2m temps may be at or just above freezing on the onset but I've noticed the models have been over doing 2m temps the past couple storms. Get some decent heavy precip rates at the onset could negate that along with cloud cover and previous lows in the mid 20's. I also have a classic forecast office battle going on with KIND going 1-3 and IWX going 3-5 two miles to my north. I'm going all in with the short stack this season calling 6-7 through Thursday afternoon. If that all sounds like someone in denial, well yeah lol! Long term this looks like my last hurrah except for a late season long shot big dog so why not I’m sitting over here in Kokomo hoping the pingers and speed of this system don’t screw me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, hlcater said: Gassing up my snowblower tonight. This is gonna be one for the ages. I for one feel quite privileged to be able to observe the ferocious winter onslaught that is forthcoming. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 All 18z foreign guidance bumped north/wetter. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 minute ago, ILSNOW said: Oof. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Thats wetter? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 14 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: I’m sitting over here in Kokomo hoping the pingers and speed of this system don’t screw me. I think you're going to be as good if not better than me. The modeled warm nose is right on our doorstep but its been consistently on our doorstep the last 24 hours instead of pushing all the way to the MI border as they've modeled the past couple systems. Hey it's not a big dog but I'll take a jacked up dog this season lol. I also think we could be in for an inch of icing on the cake if we can get a french tickler off the lake late Thursday. Hell if the weather channel can do it I'll go out on a limb a name this storm storm Jackstraw lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Thats wetter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Jackstraw said: I think you're going to be as good if not better than me. The modeled warm nose is right on our doorstep but its been consistently on our doorstep the last 24 hours instead of pushing all the way to the MI border as they've modeled the past couple systems. Hey it's not a big dog but I'll take a jacked up dog this season lol. I also think we could be in for an inch of icing on the cake if we can get a french tickler off the lake late Thursday. Hell if the weather channel can do it I'll go out on a limb a name this storm storm Jackstraw lol. "French tickler". I giggled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Thank you for posting!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 My local office (GRR) throwing out operational guidance - saying high res is the way to go with this one. Not correctly handing the energy out west early on. edit: Nothing quite like a French tickler so close to Valentine’s Day lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I have a hard time believing 6-8" for Indy with marginal temps. Going to be too much mixing. Does anyone on here think any of the Indy metro has a shot at 6-8" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The Kuchera is like a cocktail. Everything looks better after having it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Beauty is in the eye of the Beer-Holder 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Cary67 said: The Kuchera is like a cocktail. Everything looks better after having it. It's the way to go though. 10:1 maps have little worth these days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said: Looks like a solid turd of a storm. I'd suggest doing as I am and not wasting precious seconds of your life on it. Joke of a storm. We'll be lucky to get an inch out of this now. Been a while since we've seen a nice storm (>8") that wasn't a clipper or had mixing issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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