Thundersnow12 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 9:38 PM, Hoosier said: Duration does look better east of the DVN cwa. In fact, it looks like it could be snowing here for ~24 hours with little/no breaks. It is one of the reasons why I am fairly bullish on getting over 4"... in a short duration storm, there is less time to make up ground if you get off to a bad start. Expand Yeah, 18z NAM has nearly 24 hours of snow for the Chicago metro area when you get added support on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Add anorher 1.5" call on northern fringe again. Looks like a Kankakee special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 6:31 PM, Stebo said: Definitely like how this one is turning, gives us some room in case it decides to go to shit last minute. Expand Yeah, watch sampling take all the wind out of our sails yet again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 9:46 PM, Cary67 said: Add anorher 1.5" call on northern fringe again. Looks like a Kankakee special Expand Not a whole lot of room to work this thing NW to jackpot us with that high chilling over the dakotas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 9:52 PM, SchaumburgStormer said: Not a whole lot of room to work this thing NW to jackpot us with that high chilling over the dakotas Expand GFS is trying though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 9:52 PM, SchaumburgStormer said: Not a whole lot of room to work this thing NW to jackpot us with that high chilling over the dakotas Expand Don't recall too many big snows for Champaign and the northern suburbs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 9:47 PM, RogueWaves said: Yeah, watch sampling take all the wind out of our sails yet again.. Expand The southern piece is in the US and has been for a couple days so if there will be any sampling surprises it will be with the northern stream and that has been trending positively all day. Also the window is closing as this is rapidly approaching 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 9:52 PM, SchaumburgStormer said: Not a whole lot of room to work this thing NW to jackpot us with that high chilling over the dakotas Expand That high pressure is going to keep my furnace running all day Thursday. High and low of 2/-16 Good luck to those south of 42N. I need the snowpack to build up to damper any future warmups this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 10:01 PM, Stebo said: The southern piece is in the US and has been for a couple days so if there will be any sampling surprises it will be with the northern stream and that has been trending positively all day. Also the window is closing as this is rapidly approaching Expand It looks to me like the southern stream closed low has slipped south of the border, but I largely agree... any bigger surprise would come from the handling of the northern stream. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 I hate this... another near miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 6:10 PM, Chicago Storm said: Euro is likely just about the best phase we can probably get out of this setup. Expand I lied... 18z Euro was an even better phase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 12:11 AM, Chicago Storm said: I lied... 18z Euro was an even better phase. Expand A more northerly phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 11, 2020 Author Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 10:41 PM, Hoosier said: It looks to me like the southern stream closed low has slipped south of the border, but I largely agree... any bigger surprise would come from the handling of the northern stream. Expand Seeing that it comes straight out of the Yukon, I'd assume the CMC would have a better handling of the northern stream than other global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 12:13 AM, Chicago Storm said: Expand Boy I'd be nervous on that southern end... CMI, IND, etc. Even if it ends up mostly snow, daytime temps are probably going to cost some of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 9:28 PM, StormChaser4Life said: DVN isn't impressed: The 12Z model suite has shown more phasing than past runs with the upcoming system. The QPF has shifted north, resulting in models producing typical advisory levels of snow over the CWA and the rest of northern IL. However, no model run has really indicated a closed mid level circulation in this phasing, thus the precipitation should be mainly driven by WAA and not be long lasting or heavy in the cold side of the system (not a persistent def zone). While I am on board with increasing pops to likely for this event, we may not have a cold boundary layer over our region, and that could greatly limit any snow accumulation until the Arctic front arrives Wednesday night, and once again, unless there`s reason to draw moisture back over the cold air, that process should shut down the widespread rain/snow. Snow showers may develop with low level lapse rates peaking in the gusty Arctic transition. Expand ILX wasn't very hyped either. Less than 72 hours out and still showing something for us, I'm once again on the southern fringe of things which is fine if it stays that way, but any nudge north and it could be the difference between all or mostly nothing. Why can't we get another GHD event that spreads the wealth for many, yet not everyone. Haven't had a bowling ball type event in awhile that could gibe a majority a good event. One of these winters has to break open, maybe, possibly, hopefully....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 12:13 AM, Snowstorms said: Seeing that it comes straight out of the Yukon, I'd assume the CMC would have a better handling of the northern stream than other global models. Expand I have read that over the years but is there really any basis to it lol? The models all use the same RAOBs and stuff so it kind of doesn't make sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 12:36 AM, Hoosier said: I have read that over the years but is there really any basis to it lol? The models all use the same RAOBs and stuff so it kind of doesn't make sense. Expand Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/10/2020 at 9:46 PM, Cary67 said: Add anorher 1.5" call on northern fringe again. Looks like a Kankakee specialGo on.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 12:13 AM, Chicago Storm said: Expand can you post it for the CLE area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 12:44 AM, WHEATCENT said: can you post it for the CLE area? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 21Z SREF Plume more than doubles 15Z, not that 2.78" is anything to write home about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 0z NAM continuing the trend of a northern wave which dives in more.Looks like the southern wave ejecting out a bit strung out keeps this run from having a big dog.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 11, 2020 Author Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 2:23 AM, Chicago Storm said: 0z NAM continuing the trend of a northern wave which dives in more. Looks like the southern wave ejecting out a bit strung out keeps this run from having a big dog. . Expand The primary low is a bit further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 1:45 AM, Jim Martin said: Expand Based upon trends with this one. I'd argue moving that north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 2:23 AM, Chicago Storm said: 0z NAM continuing the trend of a northern wave which dives in more. Looks like the southern wave ejecting out a bit strung out keeps this run from having a big dog. . Expand Yeah that piece that dives in from Montana is a new wrinkle but could certainly be a positive one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 11, 2020 Author Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 2:27 AM, Stebo said: Based upon trends with this one. I'd argue moving that north some. Expand Right over @michsnowfreak's backyard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 2:23 AM, Chicago Storm said: 0z NAM continuing the trend of a northern wave which dives in more. Looks like the southern wave ejecting out a bit strung out keeps this run from having a big dog. . Expand Don't be trying to get Malacka's hopes up now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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