2/8/2020 Snow Event

[Extreme NEGA]

[Hammer]

Clouds have moved out and sitting at 28 degrees here.

May get lucky yet.


. Pro

[NGTim]

I really don’t know how to act. I seem to be in the bullseye in Lumpkin county

[mackerel_sky]

1 hour ago, Dunkman said:

Even the high end forecast from GSP looks pretty meager. We must really be wishcasting this one or something.

They’ve never ever been wrong!

[WarmNose]

4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

They’ve never ever been wrong!

You seen the new 00z 12k 10:1 snow map? 2.1” lollipop over warmNose ranch 

[drfranklin]

34.8/22 clear

[mackerel_sky]

1 minute ago, WarmNose said:

You seen the new 00z 12k 10:1 snow map? 2.1” lollipop over warmNose ranch 

Yeah, people saying short range models drying up, lol! I’m still getting hammered at casa de Mack, on all 3 of the 0z NAMs! Waiting on the RAP!

[ATLMet84]

44 minutes ago, NGTim said:

I really don’t know how to act. I seem to be in the bullseye in Lumpkin county

Happy. Can't beat being in the bullseye only 12 or so hours out. You're sitting pretty up there. 30.4 here

[buckeyefan1]

I have my chair, flashlight and black construction paper ready to document the incoming flizzard  

[Iceagewhereartthou]

23 minutes ago, Hammer said:

Clouds have moved out and sitting at 28 degrees here.

May get lucky yet.


. Pro

You're up all night till the sun 

You're up all night to get some

You're up all night for good fun

You're up all night to get lucky

[Iceagewhereartthou]

29 minutes ago, Extreme NEGA said:

That looks like it's all the way down to 1-20, though I'd be surprised if BL temps weren't a big issue. I'm still worried about that here. I'm just not used to seeing an H there like that, it feels like it should be in VA. I guess this is an ULL overrunning scenario? 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

7 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I have my chair, flashlight and black construction paper ready to document the incoming flizzard  

You're in the upstate now, maybe you'll even get a car topper! 

[mackerel_sky]

9 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

You're in the upstate now, maybe you'll even get a car topper! 

Didn’t know you were up here!? For your sanity, I hope it’s N of 85!

[jrips27]

53 minutes ago, NGTim said:

I really don’t know how to act. I seem to be in the bullseye in Lumpkin county

Think I’m gonna head your way and up into Dahlonega in the morning. Don’t want to risk being too close to the line down here and potentially mixing back and forth all day. 
 

28 degrees where I’m at right now 6 miles ENE of Alpharetta. Feels like the night before a storm. Always love daytime snow and looking up and seeing infinite flakes 

[buckeyefan1]

19 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

You're in the upstate now, maybe you'll even get a car topper! 

  I’m not holding my breath. It would be nice to see some mood flakes again though  

8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Didn’t know you were up here!? For your sanity, I hope it’s N of 85!

I’m now your neighbor  

Currently 31 degrees and a dp of 25 

 

[SnowDawg]

Gotten down to 29.3 with a dew point of 18. Wind still gusting around 10 mph at times, so not quite perfect conditions for radiational cooling. 

[SnowDawg]

Any significance to these light radar returns over Alabama and Mississippi tonight? 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

2 hours ago, Extreme NEGA said:

Looks good to me 

Verbatim this heaviest line is heading right up 85 into SC, and I mean exact. If the orient of precip is ENE and the BL temps are 32 or less somone could get a nice thump! 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Any significance to these light radar returns over Alabama and Mississippi tonight? 

That should be our baby. It actually flared up about an hour and a half ago but then disappated quickly. Keep an eye to see what happens going forward but we want that to really blossom in the next couple of hours.  

[FLweather]

6 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Any significance to these light radar returns over Alabama and Mississippi tonight? 

That's essentially the beginning of the disturbance that's swinging through. 

[mackerel_sky]

7 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Verbatim this heaviest line is heading right up 85 into SC, and I mean exact. If the orient of precip is ENE and the BL temps are 32 or less somone could get a nice thump! 

Wrf or hrrrrrrrrr, went really dry or rainy, my eyes are getting crossed looking for hope for a flurry! I’m a little concerned that this is like a clipper, and they ALWAYS trend N, and jackpot  NC 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Wrf or hrrrrrrrrr, went really dry or rainy, my eyes are getting crossed looking for hope for a flurry! I’m a little concerned that this is like a clipper, and they ALWAYS trend N, and jackpot  NC 

I'm not too good with the short range models, but the HRRR has been consistant in showing the precip sharply turning to rain just as it hits the GA/SC state line and I am quite concerned about this. I really think the later arrival to SC is going to play a large role; plus, don't forget, that we often see a lee drying and warming coming from the higher terrain of NEGA. The WRF is much more bullish on upstate snow but I think that is a bias of that one. The HRRR, seems to be better with subtle temp changes, at least for the upstate. I seem to remember it correctly being the debbie downer before, but maybe I'm getting them mixed up. Someone was commenting about FOX21 going with cold rain for the upstate but that is probably the safest bet. There's certainly bust potential either way. It could easily surprise with a burst of snow tomorrow, but climo says it's probably mostly rain. 

Yeah; death, taxes, and NC getting more than the upstate. I don't care what the set up is, if the upstate gets anything, WNC will aways, ALWAYS get more. 

[mackerel_sky]

8 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I'm not too good with the short range models, but the HRRR has been consistant in showing the precip sharply turning to rain just as it hits the GA/SC state line and I am quite concerned about this. I really think the later arrival to SC is going to play a large role; plus, don't forget, that we often see a lee drying and warming coming from the higher terrain of NEGA. The WRF is much more bullish on upstate snow but I think that is a bias of that one. The HRRR, seems to be better with subtle temp changes, at least for the upstate. I seem to remember it correctly being the debbie downer before, but maybe I'm getting them mixed up. Someone was commenting about FOX21 going with cold rain for the upstate but that is probably the safest bet. There's certainly bust potential either way. It could easily surprise with a burst of snow tomorrow, but climo says it's probably mostly rain. 

Yeah; death, taxes, and NC getting more than the upstate. I don't care what the set up is, if the upstate gets anything, WNC will aways, ALWAYS get more. 

There was an event 5-7 years ago, kind of on this same trajectory, was supposed to be flurries or rain, or dry up, Oconee got like 5” of suprise snow, in Feb

[griteater]

Model consensus shows precip breaking out over North Bama around 3-4AM.  Hitting Gainesville, GA by 9AM.  Hitting Greenville, SC by 11AM.  Precip window looks to be 3-4 hours.  Areas of north GA offer the most promise for some light accumulations based on max forcing and temperatures.

Looking at 10pm wet bulb temperatures at Gainesville, GA, the 00z runs of the 3km NAM, 12km NAM, and HRRR are just slightly warmer than the current actual conditions

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

There was an event 5-7 years ago, kind of on this same trajectory, was supposed to be flurries or rain, or dry up, Oconee got like 5” of suprise snow, in Feb

I think I remember that. I think that one made it though the mtns of Oconee to about Walhalla and then dried up, never making farther east. I got blanked on that one. 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

5 minutes ago, griteater said:

Model consensus shows precip breaking out over North Bama around 3-4AM.  Hitting Gainesville, GA by 9AM.  Hitting Greenville, SC by 11AM.  Precip window looks to be 3-4 hours.  Areas of north GA offers the most promise for some light accumulations based on max forcing and temperatures.

Looking at 10pm wet bulb temperatures at Gainesville, GA, the 00z runs of the 3km NAM, 12km NAM, and HRRR are just slightly warmer than the current actual conditions

 

Looks like there is a tiny strip breaking out between Florence and Huntsville but I think this needs to start growing pretty quick if we're going to have anything to work with. You're talking about gainsville in just 10 hours. Always good to see your input Grit! 

[Lookout]

27 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I'm not too good with the short range models, but the HRRR has been consistant in showing the precip sharply turning to rain just as it hits the GA/SC state line and I am quite concerned about this. I really think the later arrival to SC is going to play a large role; plus, don't forget, that we often see a lee drying and warming coming from the higher terrain of NEGA. The WRF is much more bullish on upstate snow but I think that is a bias of that one. The HRRR, seems to be better with subtle temp changes, at least for the upstate. I seem to remember it correctly being the debbie downer before, but maybe I'm getting them mixed up. Someone was commenting about FOX21 going with cold rain for the upstate but that is probably the safest bet. There's certainly bust potential either way. It could easily surprise with a burst of snow tomorrow, but climo says it's probably mostly rain. 

Yeah; death, taxes, and NC getting more than the upstate. I don't care what the set up is, if the upstate gets anything, WNC will aways, ALWAYS get more. 

The hrrr is probably less bullish  because of the hrrr warm bias at the surface..especially at longer range. For example, over north central ga despite moderate to maybe even heavy snow, it shows temps steady or even rising. Temps simply won't respond that way until the precip ends or lightens up considerably.   Also, hrrr is bad about having too high of dewpoints....it's running 5 to 6 degrees too warm right now everywhere. So combination of that, cold low to mid levels, and big flakes falling...i'd urge caution on surface temps where precip falls.  Also,  for the upstate winds tomorrow should be light and variable or light south/southeast..so no downslope warming. (btw, don't be surprised if temps do reach close to 40  degrees ....even without downslope...it always seems to warm up faster than expected around here into the southern upstate especially). More  Negatives is  there is a chance of seeing some sun early on in eastern ga/upstate...and the potential for the precip to become lighter with time..especially upstate which would obviously mean warmer temps. 

 

 

[griteater]

6 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Looks like there is a tiny strip breaking out between Florence and Huntsville but I think this needs to start growing pretty quick if we're going to have anything to work with. You're talking about gainsville in just 10 hours. Always good to see your input Grit! 

Here's the radar simulation on the 3km NAM for the time period between 3AM to 5PM

[mackerel_sky]

11 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Looks like there is a tiny strip breaking out between Florence and Huntsville but I think this needs to start growing pretty quick if we're going to have anything to work with. You're talking about gainsville in just 10 hours. Always good to see your input Grit! 

My god, the futurecast radar looks like complete s**t now! Uggggh, plenty of moisture, the R/S line is at the N.C./SC border the whole event! NGA still gets plastered!

[SnowDawg]

GSP lowered totals for NE GA Mtns... 

Clayton went from around an inch to 0. I mean what gives, cause even the warmest model with a known warm bias at its longest ranges doesn't agree. My forecast only has all snow for 1 hour, then mixing with rain, then all rain. Who knows they could be right, but I just don't see where they are getting it from.