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February 9-10 Winter Storm


madwx
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Well this has been underwhelming thus far. Most models had an intense wing of WAA precip here this morning with heavy mixed precip. Temps were marginal to start this morning and are already above freezing. Also the precip was more scattered and showery in nature. Needed that convective nature to help with dynamic cooling. Models show a bigger blow up of precip later but with temps warming quickly probably will be rain. Would love to be in that frontogenic band up north

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 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
811 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2020  
   
UPDATE  
  
ISSUED AT 805 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2020  
  
SATURATION HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT, AND  
TEMPERATURES ARE IN FACT WARMING ALOFT, QUICKLY. THE SURFACE  
WETBULB 32 IS ALREADY FOUND ALONG AN AXIS FROM NEWTON IA, TO  
MUSCATINE TO MACOMB. SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE, WINTER IMPACTS WILL  
BE EITHER NON EXISTENT, OR VERY SHORT TERM. FATHER NORTH, ALONG  
I-80, WE ARE SEEING NARROW F-GEN BANDS OF MODERATE MIXED SNOW AND  
SLEET, WITH SOME RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN BETWEEN. THAT SHOULD  
TEMPORARILY SWITCH TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW, AS THE COLUMN COOLS  
DUE TO EVAPORATION AND DYNAMIC LIFT. HOWEVER, THE INTENSE WAA WILL  
WIN OUT BY LATE MORNING, RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN AND  
DRIZZLE. OUR HEADLINES CERTAINLY REPRESENT THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO  
SEE MORE THAN ONE OUR OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THIS PROCESS, AND  
WILL KEEP THEM IN PLACE UNTIL +32 WETBULB TEMP AND SNOW LIFT   
NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY:axe:

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Well this has been underwhelming thus far. Most models had an intense wing of WAA precip here this morning with heavy mixed precip. Temps were marginal to start this morning and are already above freezing. Also the precip was more scattered and showery in nature. Needed that convective nature to help with dynamic cooling. Models show a bigger blow up of precip later but with temps warming quickly probably will be rain. Would love to be in that frontogenic band up north

You were never really in the game.


.
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LOT in subtle walk back mode:...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS  
AFTERNOON...  
   
REST OF TODAY  
SNOW LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SNOW AND DRIZZLE  
IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY  
AT TIMES. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATION 1 TO 5 INCHES.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS  
10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE  
PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT.......:lol:

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12 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

A ridiculous band of snow pushed through SD/MN overnight, producing up to 3"/hr.  There are totals of 12" in a narrow band through Minnesota, including Mankato, while across the border in South Dakota up to 16" fell.  Why can stuff like this never happen here?

We are getting rain/sleet this morning.

karma. I fully expect this to happen IMBY today.:D

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We're under an enhanced blob of precip now, and it's all liquid, so we're clearly done with frozen precip type precip today.  At least we got 5 minutes of flakes, and a light dusting of sleet.

I'm giving the models an F- for this one.  For days it showed at least a few hour period of all snow for the QCA up until last evening when they started to show mixing could be an issue even at onset.  That's why it's usually good to error on the side of lameness when forecasting about 95% of the time.  :axe:

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Isn't there a new advisory for heavy quick hitting squall line type snow events?  Surprised that doesn't apply here
I posted about snow squall warnings yesterday, but I forgot the maximum duration allowed for them is an hour. The duration factor makes it tougher to fit it to today. If we were allowed 90 min to 2 hour length it may have worked better.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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