Hoosier Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Wall of reflectivity still showing nicely on the 21z RAP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Thinking a solid 3-4" locally with a couple spots getting 5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Wall of reflectivity still showing nicely on the 21z RAP Looks similar to the WAA event a few weeks ago in which as soon as heavier precip moves out it will quickly flip to liquid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 2 hours ago, Stebo said: Thinking a solid 3-4" locally with a couple spots getting 5" Thinking the same thing. First/final call of 3.1” at DTW. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 HRRR is showing some pretty intense snowfall rates with the initial band of precip before switching to rain, along with gusty winds and possible lightning. I don't even care about accumulations at this point, I'm just feeling the hype for even the slightest chance of thundersnow. If models are showing anything like this in the morning, I may drive a little to the NE for some snow chasing. I want to believe. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Going to be a large spread in totals across the TC metro. Southern burbs should cash in nicely. I think I’ll be sitting in a transition zone ~20 miles north of the better totals, but it’s close enough that model watching is useless at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 4 hours ago, Cary67 said: Good your making up for some lean years if I recall Yeah we are. 4/5 least snowiest winters on record in Toronto have occurred in the last 15 years lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 17 minutes ago, fluoronium said: HRRR is showing some pretty intense snowfall rates with the initial band of precip before switching to rain, along with gusty winds and possible lightning. I don't even care about accumulations at this point, I'm just feeling the hype for even the slightest chance of thundersnow. If models are showing anything like this in the morning, I may drive a little to the NE for some snow chasing. I want to believe. Does this translate into a thundersnow threat into Northern Indiana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 9, 2020 Author Share Posted February 9, 2020 NAM and HRRR rending upward again. Getting a little bit hyped for this event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Hi-res models are showing a very short window of snow here before the changeover occurs. 1" might be a pipe dream. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 5.4” in the P&C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 I might raise my winter grade by a whole letter if this happens 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 1-2”/hr rates on the new HRRR as it comes though here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I might raise my winter grade by a whole letter if this happens Wow that’s a big call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 SUNDAY SNOW IN THE MORNING, THEN SNOW OR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. BLUSTERY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT. ..... TYPO ..happens 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 27 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I might raise my winter grade by a whole letter if this happens In other words, D- to D+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 9 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: In other words, D- to D+. That is like two thirds of a grade, unless you guys do things differently in Canada. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Just now, Hoosier said: That is like two thirds of a grade, unless you guys do things differently in Canada. Nah it's the same as you guys. I just meant it as a lame sarcastic joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Feeling increasingly confident we'll need to issue our first SQW for this. It's won't be a squall technically to state the obvious but it will behave like one. Maybe we can consider pulling trigger on extending WWA for greater awareness and then target SQWs for the actual event. I'll mention this to my mid partner.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 24 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Feeling increasingly confident we'll need to issue our first SQW for this. It's won't be a squall technically to state the obvious but it will behave like one. Maybe we can consider pulling trigger on extending WWA for greater awareness and then target SQWs for the actual event. I'll mention this to my mid partner. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I don't know if you'd agree but I think you guys are a bit too low on amounts south of the city. There is a bit of uncertainty on how quickly temps at the sfc/aloft warm up to change the precip type or result in less efficient snow accumulation, but it won't have to snow for more than a few hours to get some 2 to maybe locally 3 inch amounts even down toward I-80 and a bit south. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 I don't know if you'd agree but I think you guys are a bit too low on amounts south of the city. There is a bit of uncertainty on how quickly temps at the sfc/aloft warm up to change the precip type or result in less efficient snow accumulation, but it won't have to snow for more than a few hours to get some 2 to maybe locally 3 inch amounts even down toward I-80 and a bit south.Yeah I see we did lower a bit from what I had this morning. Not sure how new grids will fall out because I'm not the one doing them but wouldn't be surprised if we bump them back up a bit. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Yet another short term model guidance fail out west right now... All 0z guidance has 6-12" for the FSD metro on north. When in reality the band is stalling much further north, and the FSD area (and two counties north) will likely only end up with 1-3". HRRR is handling the situation much better. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Things aren't so clear out this way compared to northeast IL. Precip type looks to be an issue all of the sudden after the models had been showing all snow to start for days. It still could be all snow to start, but it's not a sure thing. Good chance it fails to start as snow since it will be during the daytime lol. Hopefully models are too warm and we can at least get a quick burst of heavy snow before the drizzly dry slot moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 place under a WWA. LOT with a great write up this AM....just a sampling:HAVE SEEN PERIODIC GLM LIGHTNING FLASHES AND EVEN A FEW CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED, SIGNS OF THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ROBUST HYBRID CLIPPER SYSTEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Love me that P&C. 3-5".Lay it down.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Insta flakes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 15F and puking fat flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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