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February 9-10 Winter Storm


madwx
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HRRR is showing some pretty intense snowfall rates with the initial band of precip before switching to rain, along with gusty winds and possible lightning. I don't even care about accumulations at this point, I'm just feeling the hype for even the slightest chance of thundersnow. If models are showing anything like this in the morning, I may drive a little to the NE for some snow chasing.

I want to believe. :weenie:

TSSN+please.png

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17 minutes ago, fluoronium said:

HRRR is showing some pretty intense snowfall rates with the initial band of precip before switching to rain, along with gusty winds and possible lightning. I don't even care about accumulations at this point, I'm just feeling the hype for even the slightest chance of thundersnow. If models are showing anything like this in the morning, I may drive a little to the NE for some snow chasing.

I want to believe. :weenie:

TSSN+please.png

Does this translate into a thundersnow threat into Northern Indiana? 

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SUNDAY  
SNOW IN THE MORNING, THEN SNOW OR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE  
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY BE  
HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO  
2 INCHES. BLUSTERY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO  
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE  
PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT.  ..... TYPO ..happens

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Feeling increasingly confident we'll need to issue our first SQW for this. It's won't be a squall technically to state the obvious but it will behave like one. Maybe we can consider pulling trigger on extending WWA for greater awareness and then target SQWs for the actual event. I'll mention this to my mid partner.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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24 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Feeling increasingly confident we'll need to issue our first SQW for this. It's won't be a squall technically to state the obvious but it will behave like one. Maybe we can consider pulling trigger on extending WWA for greater awareness and then target SQWs for the actual event. I'll mention this to my mid partner.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

I don't know if you'd agree but I think you guys are a bit too low on amounts south of the city.  There is a bit of uncertainty on how quickly temps at the sfc/aloft warm up to change the precip type or result in less efficient snow accumulation, but it won't have to snow for more than a few hours to get some 2 to maybe locally 3 inch amounts even down toward I-80 and a bit south.

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I don't know if you'd agree but I think you guys are a bit too low on amounts south of the city.  There is a bit of uncertainty on how quickly temps at the sfc/aloft warm up to change the precip type or result in less efficient snow accumulation, but it won't have to snow for more than a few hours to get some 2 to maybe locally 3 inch amounts even down toward I-80 and a bit south.
Yeah I see we did lower a bit from what I had this morning. Not sure how new grids will fall out because I'm not the one doing them but wouldn't be surprised if we bump them back up a bit.

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Yet another short term model guidance fail out west right now...

All 0z guidance has 6-12" for the FSD metro on north. When in reality the band is stalling much further north, and the FSD area (and two counties north) will likely only end up with 1-3".

HRRR is handling the situation much better.

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Things aren't so clear out this way compared to northeast IL.  Precip type looks to be an issue all of the sudden after the models had been showing all snow to start for days.  It still could be all snow to start, but it's not a sure thing.  Good chance it fails to start as snow since it will be during the daytime lol.  Hopefully models are too warm and we can at least get a quick burst of heavy snow before the drizzly dry slot moves in.

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place under a WWA. LOT with a great write up this AM....just a sampling:HAVE SEEN PERIODIC GLM LIGHTNING FLASHES AND EVEN  
A FEW CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED, SIGNS OF THE   
IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ROBUST HYBRID CLIPPER   
SYSTEM.   

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